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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread


Damage In Tolland
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4 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:


It’s not required. Most know what’s a troll post and what’s a weather discussion and observations. It looks like we start November cooler than last year, tho. If I remember, it was cooking until that cold stretch the week before thanksgiving or around thanksgiving. I remember something like a 5 day stretch of primo snow making temps after weeks of crap.

Yeah and this warmth has no bearing on starting the snow season either.  All it takes is one good trough and could have widespread snow ahead of schedule in the first half of November.  Sometimes we see that, record warmth goes straight to a big snow event.  October 2011 was like a monster snowstorm for south/central in a sea of warmth I believe?

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Yeah and this warmth has no bearing on starting the snow season either.  All it takes is one good trough and could have widespread snow ahead of schedule in the first half of November.  Sometimes we see that, record warmth goes straight to a big snow event.  October 2011 was like a monster snowstorm for south/central in a sea of warmth I believe?

What’s the average date you have legit snowmaking temps above 2500’? I know the bottom third is tough.


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3 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:


What’s the average date you have legit snowmaking temps above 2500’? I know the bottom third is tough.


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Don’t know really but the mountain has always used November 1st as the time when it’s plausible to make snow and have a chance it sticks around up high.  Even if we get temps in October it’s usually not our game seeing as chances are high it’ll melt out.  It still can happen in November but to me, 11/1 is the start of snowmaking season when temps allow for a prolonged period (like more than 6 hours, system isn’t going on for like a 3-hr early AM chance).

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Don’t know really but the mountain has always used November 1st as the time when it’s plausible to make snow and have a chance it sticks around up high.  Even if we get temps in October it’s usually not our game seeing as chances are high it’ll melt out.  It still can happen in November but to me, 11/1 is the start of snowmaking season when temps allow for a prolonged period (like more than 6 hours, system isn’t going on for like a 3-hr early AM chance).

Despite the warmth, could be right on schedule for that.


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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

That Northfield, VT record early freeze date looks bogus. There’s no way they pulled 32° on 8/21/2014.

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Yeah, I’m thinking I would remember that one. I don’t live too far from there and used to be over there at the golf course 3-4 times a week. 

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31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where are folks getting these delusional ideas about bitter cold shots, freezes and a cold Nov coming? I mean there’s nothing that shows any of that . Sure there’ll be a fake frost in spots Tuesday . Other than that warm rules roosts

I don’t think anybody said bitter…but ensembles look cool for Halloween and beyond. 

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The number of synoptic big rainers this warm season has been impressive.  Another decent 1-2" rainer possible over a good sized area, with localized 4" amounts?

So far this year when the models show good rains, someone can get smoked in a localized area.  If the models start showing jackpots of 3-4"+ this season, it has meant that a locality will realize that somewhere.

GFS

gfs-deterministic-vt-total_precip_inch-8062400.thumb.png.3311557a8e52036dc33422be0b358ac9.png

EURO

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-total_precip_inch-8062400.thumb.png.32e0dfbedc58f12c39cbb48a95aff7fd.png

RGEM (because it's the 18z run).

rgem-all-vt-total_precip_inch-8040800.thumb.png.23cac48cc61a635cba489b79a7891a45.png

NAM

nam-218-all-massachusetts-total_precip_inch-8040800.thumb.png.6808493043544609ec1f2a6c97deb779.png

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The number of synoptic big rainers this warm season has been impressive.  Another decent 1-2" rainer possible over a good sized area, with localized 4" amounts?

So far this year when the models show good rains, someone can get smoked in a localized area.  If the models start showing jackpots of 4"+ this season, it has meant that a locality will realize that somewhere.

GFS

gfs-deterministic-vt-total_precip_inch-8062400.thumb.png.3311557a8e52036dc33422be0b358ac9.png

EURO

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-total_precip_inch-8062400.thumb.png.32e0dfbedc58f12c39cbb48a95aff7fd.png

RGEM (because it's the 18z run).

rgem-all-vt-total_precip_inch-8040800.thumb.png.23cac48cc61a635cba489b79a7891a45.png

Hopefully the euro is right here and we can salvage a mostly dry weekend 

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Been a bit tuned out on recent developments for our weekend storm, so I only just now have caught up on how this thing has trended... what a shame if this was January. Hopefully we are getting our blown phases out of the way in the preseason (at least according to the GFS):yikes:

Looking at the Z500 evolution is especially painful with the southerly vort getting slung out east. Make no mistake about it, this would be a solid hit, but more in the "close but no cigar" caliber rather than a true classic.

One final note, take a look at a rare October Manitoba Mauler diving into the midwest upstream of our weekend storm. Seems like the clipper train has really dried up in recent years, maybe getting it going early is a good omen?

 

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