Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Cranky taking the under for how many bodies buried in S VT this year . His is the first response to Mitch .  Cranky Thinks there will be many zonal occluded systems systems that underwhelm . Lock it in?

 

[SnoSki14]

11 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

We won’t be seeing mid 80’s that’s for sure.  Maybe..maybe 70, and that’s the end of next week.  
 

Last week some thought we’d be seeing 70 or over for the end of this current week, and that isn’t going to materialize.  So let’s see how this next warmer potential looks by Monday? 

I think you're in denial about how warm its been and will be. And that's a torch look for later next week.

There's been almost no cold over New England this fall. The early October heat set many all time records too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cranky taking the under for how many bodies buried in S VT this year . His is the first response to Mitch .  Cranky Thinks there will be many zonal occluded systems systems that underwhelm . Lock it in?

 

Theres very few folks thinking a good winter is coming. But the one that is… is all in 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Should we be comforted by the BOX forecasts for the weekend are saying "showers" rather than "rain"?

significant if Stein is on it

[dendrite]

40.3°

More days above 40°

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think you're in denial about how warm its been and will be. And that's a torch look for later next week.

There's been almost no cold over New England this fall. The early October heat set many all time records too. 

WTF are you talking about? And except for two weeks ago it’s been pleasantly cool here. And first frost will probably be here Tuesday.  No denial here. I’m completely fine with how the temps are going…I don’t live in the Ukon Territories, it’s not supposed to be cold in mid October here.  
 

Maybe you’ll reach 80 next week.  We won’t.  Keep living in your CC everything dilution. None of this has any bearing on the upcoming winter.  None. 

[CoastalWx]

Fangs and teeth showing 

[CoastalWx]

Next week will be mild. Maybe 70s for a day Friday. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Just flaccid. No real notable warmth either.

Yeah..  cobbling together a headline there.  heh.

I've been noticing that we're really just getting narrow diurnal spreads... It's like 47 to 59 type air.  Sometimes we'll score a 38 but not frost - granted.   I guess it's technically above in the numbers but not so much by experience.

[bwt3650]

There’s that record warm Halloween showing up again…melting makeup and diarrhea or something. Early November torch on the GEFS too. Just as much chance of verifying as the 384 torch a few days ago.





.

[bwt3650]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week will be mild. Maybe 70s for a day Friday. 

No doubt, but are you seeing any prolonged November torch?  It looks like a lot of battles of extreme temps.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, bwt3650 said:

No doubt, but are you seeing any prolonged November torch?  It looks like a lot of battles of extreme temps.

At the moment no. After the early Novie cool shot, it will likely get milder again for a time...but I don't see any prolonged Novie torch. Maybe a near avg month.

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cranky taking the under for how many bodies buried in S VT this year . His is the first response to Mitch .  Cranky Thinks there will be many zonal occluded systems systems that underwhelm . Lock it in?

 

What an odd, narcissistic post.  Who the hell cares how how much snow one particular guy has in his own backyard...enough that it requires a poll?

[bwt3650]

11 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

What an odd, narcissistic post.  Who the hell cares how how much snow one particular guy has in his own backyard...enough that it requires a poll?

Snow is not a team sport.

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

There’s that record warm Halloween showing up again…melting makeup and diarrhea or something. Early November torch on the GEFS too. Just as much chance of verifying as the 384 torch a few days ago.





.

Nah, there's more predictive skill than a 384 chart.  

I get the sarcasm, but Halloween being balmy mild?  That was/is questionable as that range appears(ed) to be on the temporal horizon of a pattern change. To mention also ... 12 days away.

First in the foreground, there is higher confidence -EPO burst. Downstream, this drops heights over the western half of the continent - not always, but is the preferred initial response to the -EPO forcing. 

Heights fall in the west ... wave spacing arguments suggest we raise heights over the east. We see that happening in the ensemble means. It is all a reasonably confident evolution.

The question is timing the progression of these events; particularly what happens after the initial -EPO forcing. The natural progression is to collapse - or pulse down - the ridging of the -EPO, and as that happens, the PNAP tends to rise. 

Perennial North America Pattern (PNAP) is not quite the same as the Pacific North American oscillation (PNA).  In situations such as the -EPO burst, the PNA may drop negative, but in terms of relative magnitude, the PNAP drops more than the PNA.  Later on, the PNAP rises as the upstream -EPO pulses down, expressed as either flattening flow across the continental mid latitudes, or NW east of 100W or so... 

This total relay of events brings the cold east - how much or little is idiosyncratic to the exact layout of the PNAP at those times..  

Again, timing all that complexity is fools errand - it's more about knowing it will happen, but not really being very knowledgeable about when.  These changes can all take place quickly, or slowly. It's a morass. 

The way things worked out overnight in the runs, the models are attempting to progress through those chapters quicker - in fact, I've noticed this tendency to speed up the hemisphere ..( heh, which began in 2002 but that's another story).  Anyway, by the 28th ... 29th of the month, we've already transitioned into the +PNAP, lowered heights N of Lake Superior to Onterio, and are scraping morning windshields along 40 N. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

40.3°

More days above 40°

45F here…. Rack up another +10 on the min.

We can’t seem to get dews under like 43F, just keeps recycling maritime puke and stratus into here.  Never see the sun either.

[bwt3650]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah, there's more predictive skill than a 384 chart.  

I get the sarcasm, but Halloween being balmy mild?  That was/is questionable as that range appears(ed) to be on the temporal horizon of a pattern change. To mention also ... 12 days away.

First in the foreground, there is higher confidence -EPO burst. Downstream, this drops heights over the western half of the continent - not always, but is the preferred initial response to the -EPO forcing. 

Heights fall in the west ... wave spacing arguments suggest we raise heights over the east. We see that happening in the ensemble means. It is all a reasonably confident evolution.

The question is timing the progression of these events; particularly what happens after the initial -EPO forcing. The natural progression is to collapse - or pulse down - the ridging of the -EPO, and as that happens, the PNAP tends to rise. 

Perennial North America Pattern (PNAP) is not quite the same as the Pacific North American oscillation (PNA).  In situations such as the -EPO burst, the PNA may drop negative, but in terms of relative magnitude, the PNAP drops more than the PNA.  Later on, the PNAP rises as the upstream -EPO pulses down, expressed as either flattening flow across the continental mid latitudes, or NW east of 100W or so... 

This total relay of events brings the cold east - how much or little is idiosyncratic to the exact layout of the PNAP at those times..  

Again, timing all that complexity is fools errand - it's more about knowing it will happen, but not really being very knowledgeable about when.  These changes can all take place quickly, or slowly. It's a morass. 

The way things worked out overnight in the runs, the models are attempting to progress through those chapters quicker - in fact, I've noticed this tendency to speed up the hemisphere ..( heh, which began in 2002 but that's another story).  Anyway, by the 28th ... 29th of the month, we've already transitioned into the +PNAP, lowered heights N of Lake Superior to Onterio, and are scraping morning windshields along 40 N. 

What's the typical timing of the ridge build to the response of the cold dump?    Is there a seasonal variation to where the cold is focused?

[CoastalWx]

It’s a beautiful sunny morning finally  here. I feel like an old man lately…..the lack of sun is depressing. 

[WinterWolf]

45 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

There’s that record warm Halloween showing up again…melting makeup and diarrhea or something. Early November torch on the GEFS too. Just as much chance of verifying as the 384 torch a few days ago.





.

Good post. Maybe we need to start bumping some posts from a week-10 days ago?  I mean, cuz now/this period, and Halloween was supposed to be a very warm(or the beloved word “torch”) as was being touted by some.  We’ll have a few more mild days no doubt, and that’s good because it feels great this time of year.  
 

I think a good portion of SNE will frost early next week(hopefully so we can get that out of the way, so we don’t have the incessant moaning about it). And then a nice lil warm up end of next week. A very nice autumn set up.  

[#NoPoles]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

45F here…. Rack up another +10 on the min.

We can’t seem to get dews under like 43F, just keeps recycling maritime puke and stratus into here.  Never see the sun either.

Same

[ineedsnow]

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

No, no, it can’t be…it’s just warm all the time man.  I just had a guy from Jersey tell me Im in denial, and don’t realize how warm its going to be……

[CoastalWx]

Yeah we sell that.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah we sell that.

Of course we do. Nice seeing it there though.  

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We’ll have a few more mild days no doubt, and that’s good because it feels great this time of year.  

I think a good portion of SNE will frost early next week(hopefully so we can get that out of the way, so we don’t have the incessant moaning about it). And then a nice lil warm up end of next week. A very nice autumn set up.  

Do you interpret warm talk as people moaning?  I never really did but it seems like you think every time it’s mentioned it’s a bad thing.

Is it better phrased like the bolded above?  Nice lil warm up, feels good this time of year?

I don’t get the angst with mentioning that its warm when it’s been that way.

[SouthCoastMA]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Do you interpret warm talk as people moaning?  I never really did but it seems like you think every time it’s mentioned it’s a bad thing.

Is it better phrased like the bolded above?  Nice lil warm up, feels good this time of year?

I don’t get the angst with mentioning that its warm when it’s been that way.

I think it's the perceived virtue signaling and/or trolling about climate change tbh. Some think it's twisting the knife, whether valid or not

[bwt3650]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Do you interpret warm talk as people moaning?  I never really did but it seems like you think every time it’s mentioned it’s a bad thing.

Is it better phrased like the bolded above?  Nice lil warm up, feels good this time of year?

I don’t get the angst with mentioning that its warm when it’s been that way.

Warms not bad...+10  in October is great weather.  In fact, I think you and I root for a warm Jan because that could still be snowy af; and no one likes sitting on a chair lift with -30 wind chills.  But the bs 360 warm anomaly, never going to snow again, winters over, cc is going to make NE Florida, CC is responsible for every warm up trolling gets old.   

 

I'll admit though, Nov 10th through about Dec 10th I hate the warmth as it delays the start of the season. That's one of the most important periods of ski season to get things going.

 

 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I think it's the perceived virtue signaling and/or trolling about climate change tbh. Some think it's twisting the knife, whether valid or not

Ahhh yeah there seems to be some knee jerk reaction that’s pre-loaded.  I separate all that out and just look at what the weather is doing and has done.  Not what caused it or blame or action needed.

That does sound like it’s probably a lot of it though now that you mention it.  The reaction feels overblown to the statement, like this is what the response is:

“Man, this October has been near record warm, we just can’t cool off.  +6.5 in the means.”

”Did you just say you wanted to levy a carbon tax on my snowmobile?!  Take away my oil, gas and truck?  It’s cyclical dumbass.”

 

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Warms not bad...+10  in October is great weather.  In fact, I think you and I root for a warm Jan because that could still be snowy af; and no one likes sitting on a chair lift with -30 wind chills.  But the bs 360 warm anomaly, never going to snow again, winters over, cc is going to make NE Florida, CC is responsible for every warm up trolling gets old.   

I'll admit though, Nov 10th through about Dec 10th I hate the warmth as it delays the start of the season. That's one of the most important periods of ski season to get things going.

Ok yeah the trolling for sure if that's what it is.  I just look at it like people are posting different things.  Get a 300hr snow map, get a 300hr torch map, whatever.  I guess I have been naive with how loaded the whole discussion has gotten.  I just like looking at the stats and seeing how we are going.  And it's been warm.  Not that it's good or bad or whatever.  Just is what it is.

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

We still haven’t had a below normal day at MVL.  +6.5F on the month.

Max of 87F during the record torch.

 

Our average low is 35F.  The coldest it’s gotten all month is 39F.

This has to be near record warm or the record for October so far.

Minima here have been all over the place, but maxima have been a gradual step-down,
1-4:  69-79   (That 79 [twice] is 2nd mildest Oct max here; top is 80 on 10/9/2011.)
5-7:  63-65
8-18:  52-58
Maybe today we get back up to 60?