Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m thinking we get wet here today… lot of precip to the west heading this way…it won’t all dry up. Further north looks nice and dry. 

It looks like Fairfield county is getting some pretty heavy rain returns ( strange... It almost looks like sleet with the reds? )..... anyway.... We are right on that cusp... Even me being 5-7 miles north of you can make a difference. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Mount Mansfield fell to 31F this morning, first 32F or lower of the season and second latest on record (Oct 19, 2021).

Some interesting stats:

From 1956-2000… first 32F or lower occurred in October only once!  It happened in August 7 times.

Since 2000… first 32F or lower has happened in October 7 times and 0 times in August.

Most eye opening is the 1956-2023 period average 32F or lower date is 9/15.  Since 2000 however, that first freeze has occurred prior to 9/15 only 4 out of 23 years.  19 of last 23 years it has after the long term mean of September 15th.

Growing season continues to extend in the means.

It did that (bold) in a +2.5 SD PNA/-2 SD NAO, too

That's an interesting result given these indices have been evolving for 10 days.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It did that (bold) in a +2.5 SD PNA/-2 SD NAO, too

That's an interesting result given these indices have been evolving for 10 days.

Yeah and likewise in the Valley at 750ft we have not had a below normal day yet this month and sit at +8.

When the trough has come, it’s been cloudy, showery and zero radiational cooling.

Record warmth for first half of October.  Average right now is 58/36… should be frosty most mornings at this point.  We are past BTV’s climo frost/freeze program dates now.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s why I roll with the warm season. You can’t fight back the tide.

Yeah and to clarify I’m not pointing it out in any way other than to show the data. It’s not alarming or a cause/effect or whatever.

It literally is what it is. It’s like when DIT says it isn’t like it used to be, that’s largely true removing all emotion from the context.

I know sometimes people don’t want to hear it, but I think statistically it’s very interesting when you keep getting long term data points showing similar trajectories.

The mountain summit has largely pivoted from freezes in late August and first half of September, to 2nd half of September and early October.  There will be outliers on both sides, but the general picture is what it is.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I doubt you see much rain. May not see any . Lots of LL dry air 

Rain moving in already up to a quarter inch in spots of Fairfield county. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah and to clarify I’m not pointing it out in any way other than to show the data. It’s not alarming or a cause/effect or whatever.

It literally is what it is. It’s like when DIT says it isn’t like it used to be, that’s largely true removing all emotion from the context.

I know sometimes people don’t want to hear it, but I think statistically it’s very interesting when you keep getting long term data points showing similar trajectories.

The mountain summit has largely pivoted from freezes in late August and first half of September, to 2nd half of September and early October.  There will be outliers on both sides, but the general picture is what it is.

I’m sort of poking the bear too lol. But yeah it’s getting warmer. No doubt. 

[dendrite]

Outside shot at my first November first freeze ever. CON has never made it out of October without a freeze either although I’m sure they’ll sneak one in.

[tamarack]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah and likewise in the Valley at 750ft we have not had a below normal day yet this month and sit at +8.

When the trough has come, it’s been cloudy, showery and zero radiational cooling.

Record warmth for first half of October.  Average right now is 58/36… should be frosty most mornings at this point.  We are past BTV’s climo frost/freeze program dates now.

Not quite as extreme here - instead of BTV's +13 on Oct 1-7 then +2 Oct 8th on, it was +10 then -1 here.  Looks like the next week here will continue dry and seasonable.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Got down to 37.1 this morning.

Had to turn the heat on… house was 58

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sort of poking the bear too lol. But yeah it’s getting warmer. No doubt. 

Thoughts and prayers to future generations. 

[dendrite]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Got down to 37.1 this morning.

Had to turn the heat on… house was 58

Windows open? Don’t you have a newer house?

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Outside shot at my first November first freeze ever. CON has never made it out of October without a freeze either although I’m sure they’ll sneak one in.

It’s been some mild nights for sure.  SLK/BML/HIE should be hitting freezing with regularity.  I know they’ve snuck it in once or twice maybe?  But the radiators are not mounting up lol.

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not quite as extreme here - instead of BTV's +13 on Oct 1-7 then +2 Oct 8th on, it was +10 then -1 here.  Looks like the next week here will continue dry and seasonable.

That’s MVL… BTV is ever so slightly cooler (averaging 1F departure less than the mountain valleys) because BTV doesn’t have as much radiational cooling baked into its climo as much as the others.  So BTV is actually slightly lower departures because of that.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thoughts and prayers to future generations. 

Ya…OMG it’s the end of the world…not.  So F’n ridiculous!  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Windows open? Don’t you have a newer house?

Yeah the windows were open, I didn’t expect it to get so cool, so my fault. Just had to turn it on a bit.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya…OMG it’s the end of the world…not.  So F’n ridiculous!  

Anytime a warm trend in climate comes up…

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Anytime a warm trend in climate comes up…

He’s going to be driving to Hudson Bay to snowmobile soon 

[mcglups]

On the topic of "changes", this depiction of Grafton Maine has a telling sentence " Frosts came unfailingly in late June and mid-August, and were not unknown in July.  The average summer temperature in the warmest month (July) was sixty-six degrees."  

https://www.bethelhistorical.org/legacy-site/Grafton,_Maine__A_Historical_Sketch.html

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

He’s going to be driving to Hudson Bay to snowmobile soon 

He’ll be buying a jet ski instead. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’ll be buying a jet ski instead. 

SummerWolf

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya…OMG it’s the end of the world…not.  So F’n ridiculous!  

The bright side is your place in Southington will be a beach front property. 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

He’s going to be driving to Hudson Bay to snowmobile soon 

Lol…never.  Plenty of cold and snow where I go for many decades to come.  No worries whatsoever.  It’s all cyclical. 

[WinterWolf]

Just started raining…we held it off as long as we could, but alas it’s wet again. On the edge of the heavier stuff down to the south. 

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Anytime a warm trend in climate comes up…

[Spanks45]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thoughts and prayers to future generations. 

the one positive is we will be able to grow food in areas that never had much of a growing season....if it rains of course. I think the biggest concern outside of coastal and already baked regions are the diseases from ticks and mosquitos...EEE is one where the later the freezes take, the longer that virus can spread in a region. Naegleria fowleri and Vibrio infections from warmer water are other issues that seem to be increasing year after year right now. It isn't just lack of A/C in northern regions and less ice unfortunately

[Snowcrazed71]

56 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just started raining…we held it off as long as we could, but alas it’s wet again. On the edge of the heavier stuff down to the south. 

Just got home from work. It was spritzing in West Hartford, it's now starting to rain here in Plainville. 

[weathafella]

I've had the heat on for a week-turned it on last Monday for my wife on the way out the door for a trip.  Definitely needed overnight and even during the day with overcast.  I don't understand the logic of waiting until you're totally miserable.....

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like we'll dodge the outre October snow this autumn.  The mass field/indicators are neutralizing and or reversing sign as we head through the next two weeks.   It would be comical if that's when we get the cold pop tart snow shot across the bow, but cross that bridge.  

I'm not buying the cold wave in a week - or it may happen in a diminished capacity compared to what we are seeing in these operational runs. I don't believe the wholesale amplitude survives model magnification correction as it nears. Some, sure.. but with the telecon trajectory already underway ...  In other words, I'm siding with the ensemble mean eof derivatives.

[WinterWolf]

39 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

the one positive is we will be able to grow food in areas that never had much of a growing season....if it rains of course. I think the biggest concern outside of coastal and already baked regions are the diseases from ticks and mosquitos...EEE is one where the later the freezes take, the longer that virus can spread in a region. Naegleria fowleri and Vibrio infections from warmer water are other issues that seem to be increasing year after year right now. It isn't just lack of A/C in northern regions and less ice unfortunately

Concerns??  Really?   Why worry about such complete and utter nonsense…??  
 

Just enjoy the weather when it’s nice.  Enjoy the snow when it comes. Nothing you, or anybody is gonna do about any of what you’re worried about. 

[dendrite]

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Concerns??  Really?   Why worry about such complete and utter nonsense…??  
 

Just enjoy the weather when it’s nice.  Enjoy the snow when it comes. Nothing you, or anybody is gonna do about any of what you’re worried about. 

Beer?

I don’t think anyone here is kept up at night worrying about the warming climate. But what’s the problem with discussing possible scenarios and outcomes? If you don’t like it skip over the posts.