UnitedWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: Euro weeklies ? Readying to track how incorrect they'll be this season?... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: It can, but I think it’d be hard. Even a fluke storm could make a season higher statistically. I do doubt we go worse than last year this season, but let’s see what things look like in late November. Yeah, I couldn't produce double digit snowfall down here last year. It would be very hard to do worse than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 52 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah, I couldn't produce double digit snowfall down here last year. It would be very hard to do worse than that. A double digit snowfall? From one storm? I didn’t get more than a 3” snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Yeah, I couldn't produce double digit snowfall down here last year. It would be very hard to do worse than that. getting ANY storm last year was tough-we had one here that dropped about 6 inches that was it for the whole season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: A double digit snowfall? From one storm? I didn’t get more than a 3” snowfall. He means for the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He means for the season. That would make sense. I think I had 16 or 17". Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Might be able to stein and salvage a weekend. Especially pike north. We pray. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Won’t get worse there. It really hasn’t been worse there. Thank you. Some of these folks think they’ll do worse than last year, and get zero inches….it’s comical, ain’t gonna happen. Everybody south of Ray and HUBB Dave in SNE will do better than last year. He’ll(Brett) do better, and so will you, and so will I. As I said before, average will be big this year. And I think that’s about where we’ll end up, and that will be just fine. Last year was the great reset….it’s up from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That would make sense. I think I had 16 or 17". Terrible. It was terrible for sure. A tad over 12” last season here. We ain’t doing worse than that..no dam way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Thank you. Some of these folks think they’ll do worse than last year, and get zero inches….it’s comical, ain’t gonna happen. Everybody south of Ray and HUBB Dave in SNE will do better than last year. He’ll(Brett) do better, and so will you, and so will I. As I said before, average will be big this year. And I think that’s about where we’ll end up, and that will be just fine. Last year was the great reset….it’s up from here. I mean weather will always humble us, so I suppose there is a non-zero chance it would be worse. But based on the current forecasts for Nino, I'd bet against it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean weather will always humble us, so I suppose there is a non-zero chance it would be worse. But based on the current forecasts for Nino, I'd bet against it. Me too. And it did humble us last winter. We humbled out in SNE..average incoming imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Chilly though... Swap rain for 52 clouds and NE neck caressing "balm" ... Just enough to keep hands cold. Seems the pattern is manifesting a cool eastern continent ... without really any obvious feeds of lower tropospheric cold sources. Yeah there are those pretty blue hydrostats showing up on the sfc modeled synopsis' mid Ontario, but they stay N. The sfc mass-fields trek E while staying N of us (the season isn't matured enough to send them SW of us just yet). But with the sun feeble now, getting these muck morning cloud types with still air (when not E w), the atmosphere isn't recovering, so it sheds therms slowly. We just end up raw... I'd like a dry series of days in the upper 60s or 70, for 7 to 10 days before this antic claims this month as below normal by fake means. Lol. I mean there's no such thing as fake ... I just mean it's coolness that's manufactured very locally by idiosyncrasy rather than a very obvious large scale continentally involved CAA regime. It's not too much to ask in a world that carries on over the top of a CC hot plate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 46F with -RN. Feels like October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean weather will always humble us, so I suppose there is a non-zero chance it would be worse. But based on the current forecasts for Nino, I'd bet against it. Are there any specific bullet points for what typically happens, or at least can happen in Nino winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Up and In. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 64 here. Nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 51 minutes ago, Layman said: Are there any specific bullet points for what typically happens, or at least can happen in Nino winters? Typically weak ninos that are more west based with their temp anomalies are snowier, especially SNE. Mod to even strong can be good, especially closer to moderate. You generally don’t want things to be focused farther east off of Peru. When that happens you can get quite the subtropical jet which can bring the precip, but the cold typically is cut off or non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Typically weak ninos that are more west based with their temp anomalies are snowier, especially SNE. Mod to even strong can be good, especially closer to moderate. You generally don’t want things to be focused farther east off of Peru. When that happens you can get quite the subtropical jet which can bring the precip, but the cold typically is cut off or non-existent. Thanks. Was last year considered a weak Nino year? I seem to recall it may have been or at least a transitioning year. Those storms that tracked west along the NY/VT border weren't fun to clean up out this way. Snow, ice and rain at 28 degrees made for some sloppy conditions in the driveway. Does a moderate Nino winter promote Nor'easter type storms or more northern tier storms? Are there tools or metrics to assess the "strength" of the potential El Nino this winter? Curious if there are ways to compare to 2015 or if it's a fools errand at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 59 minutes ago, Layman said: Thanks. Was last year considered a weak Nino year? I seem to recall it may have been or at least a transitioning year. Those storms that tracked west along the NY/VT border weren't fun to clean up out this way. Snow, ice and rain at 28 degrees made for some sloppy conditions in the driveway. Does a moderate Nino winter promote Nor'easter type storms or more northern tier storms? Are there tools or metrics to assess the "strength" of the potential El Nino this winter? Curious if there are ways to compare to 2015 or if it's a fools errand at this lead time. No, it was the 3rd La Niña in a row last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: No, it was the 3rd La Niña in a row last year. The last 3 years here have been warm and rainy and whenever we did have snow, regardless of how cold it got, there was ice and rain mixed in. Not really a fan of the La Nina precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Layman said: Thanks. Was last year considered a weak Nino year? I seem to recall it may have been or at least a transitioning year. Those storms that tracked west along the NY/VT border weren't fun to clean up out this way. Snow, ice and rain at 28 degrees made for some sloppy conditions in the driveway. Does a moderate Nino winter promote Nor'easter type storms or more northern tier storms? Are there tools or metrics to assess the "strength" of the potential El Nino this winter? Curious if there are ways to compare to 2015 or if it's a fools errand at this lead time. As Wolfie said, last season was a 3rd year Nina. That was characterized by a very strong -PNA (deep troughing out west) and helped overwhelm anything positive we could get from a -NAO. When that -NAO did form, the cold pushed west through Canada and then south into the Plains. Nino's typically can produce Miller A events (storms originating near the Gulf of Mexico) and moving up the coast. These events can hit New England good, but they can also occlude off the Delmarva and leave us with a banded mess of precip. They also can form Miller B events (redevelopers off the Mid Atlantic) when the nrn stream of the jet interacts with the subtropical jet. Miller Bs tend to be our bread and butter in New England. Regardless of the type of storm, Nino's tend to favor coastal storms vs Nina. Here is a site that lets you compare the 3-month avg of SSTs for Nino 3.4 region ( (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)). You can see we are well behind 2015 which is good. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2023 Author Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Up and In. Beer and out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Beer and out How's the Redneck Riviera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Looks like the JV Euro is back again. More than likely low is suppressed vs the Euro more aggressive solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2023 Author Share Posted October 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How's the Redneck Riviera? Lots of white trash to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like the JV Euro is back again. More than likely low is suppressed vs the Euro more aggressive solutions. Yup. Sadly brings back some rains to make everyone happy. Hopefully this one is a burp and not the previous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 GFS still has a bunch of New Englad dry though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Yup. Sadly brings back some rains to make everyone happy. Hopefully this one is a burp and not the previous 6z Euro already folded. My guess is at least pike north is dry this weekend. For the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 We dry, No changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: We dry, No changes. Blocking trending stronger Stein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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