powderfreak Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Over 2” here now… we are on the light side compared to just west/southwest locally. Most models nailed a decreasing gradient through VT from west to east today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 1.27” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 48 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Too bad and sad that we’re losing a manufacturer. Where’s that at? A buddy and I are heading to Epping, NH tomorrow morning to the sled show…heard that snowmobile show is fabulous. So We’ll soon find out. I’m at Epping. I’m working at the VAST booth which is in the tent right by the water cross course. Stop by and say hello. The only other AMWX guy I’ve met in person is @dryslotup at the Maine show a few years ago. Attendance was ok Friday night and down today because of the weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 1.28” on the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 .08" on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchrnLker Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 3.96" Schroon Lake, Eastern Adks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 .46 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 7 hours ago, mreaves said: I’m at Epping. I’m working at the VAST booth which is in the tent right by the water cross course. Stop by and say hello. The only other AMWX guy I’ve met in person is @dryslotup at the Maine show a few years ago. Attendance was ok Friday night and down today because of the weather. Oh wow lol. Never been, so don’t know my way round at all. I’ll try to make a point to find it, and say hi for sure. Actually leaving now. Should be about a 2 hr ride. Thanks Mreaves! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 2.19 here. Good drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 0.57” total here. Pretty annoying but no big deal. Back into the 40s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 49.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 .12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Boom. Summer gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, klw said: 2.19 here. Good drink Thank god. After the summer we had I was afraid we would run out of water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 1.86" total, with about 2/3 falling 8-11 last evening. Jack was Penobscot Bay, especially the west side with some 5"+ totals. End of the 17-day dry spell. Other than the wind-shielded understory, 90% of the leaves are on the ground here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 8, 2023 Author Share Posted October 8, 2023 Coolest morning of the extended summer so far at 44.5. .57 yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Miller B next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Heavy rains yesterday and last night here at Pit2 along with what I hope was a last hurrah at about 6:00a.m. which was apparently the front as the temp's dopped. Looks like we wound up with a couple inches=plus based on area reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 MWN is whipping out all of the ptypes this morning. KMWN 081152Z 28032G40KT 1/16SM -FZRA -PLGS FZFG VV001 M02/M02 RMK VRY LGT GICG 60016 70183 931000 10071 21017= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Coolest morning of the extended summer so far at 44.5. .57 yesterday What about the floods? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: MWN is whipping out all of the ptypes this morning. KMWN 081152Z 28032G40KT 1/16SM -FZRA -PLGS FZFG VV001 M02/M02 RMK VRY LGT GICG 60016 70183 931000 10071 21017= Looks like a wintery week up at the summit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What about the floods? Thank god it busted....flood watch here for .36 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Hey look... another rain event next Saturday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 2.51” in the stratus this morning. Leaf accumulation of 2-5”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 .27" here. Leaving for Scotland tonight. Looks like I'll miss our first real nor'easter in forever next weekend, but hopefully a harbinger of an active fall into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Noticed three aspects about the rain this next weekend over the last day(s) of modeling. ... tendency to delay ...tendency to suppress ...tendency to weaken All of which can be a part of what I have phrased "model magnification" in the past - more specifically, as the 'de'-magnificaiton correction than ensues in future runs, the above list of morphology tends to occur. So to spell out the metaphor, when events first emerge out at the outer temporal boundary of 'practical' distance ( beyond which the randomization is too large and overwhelms confidence ), the specter of what the model result is at that point in time, tends to be more amplified than what will actually occur. All guidance do this. GGEM ... EURO ... UKMET ... GFS ... JMA... Kevin's imagination, I have not seen any one of these sources free from blame. The reason they do this, they "see" future events as a result of present input interacting in the processing of the physics, but cannot see all the permutations that have yet to emerge in time. Some of which directly negatively interfere, but some actually require wave energy of their own; sapping off the domain ... effectively robbing the original specter of what it needs to maintain - this may just be another way of describing negative interference.. Either way, the result is the reduction over time. It think it is a natural artifact of the technology. One that perhaps cannot be avoided, too. Maybe in the future ...all the doubters of 'flying models' will eat crow but until models can see the catalogue of events that are going to happen (will of god type stuff), those "permutations" are yet to occur as part of an uncertain future. When a given guidance sees a big D9 event, it's just not seeing all the other hindrances that will manifest in time that either cancel or rob, cannot be predetermined. If we further that thinking ... we may be nearing an end of what these models can really do for us in terms of "really" predicting the future. I wonder if there is a way to calculate the "uncertainty of emergent future properties" as a function of time - so it grows... Then, at D11 (say..), we might benefit from knowing that the very best the models will ever be able to do, given the atmospheric domain in question is 57% accuracy ... This type of imagined analytic approach would not rule out or suggest the blind dart scenario, either. It only says that no matter how well a guidance or a person visualizes D10, once applying the 'uncertainty coefficients' they or technology could not have had more than that 57% certitude. D5 improves to say 77%. D3, 97. Daught, hilariously sounding like 'doubt' now-cast is 99.99999999... because there is always some subjective error that is too finite to be seen. The whole model would eerily agree with one of the baser tenets of Quantum Mechanics, that states that an object cannot be simultaneously measured for it's velocity, or position, in space to exactitude. This was going to be a small post ... I've gone and f'ed that up. I guess if you've read this far, bravo. But the original intent was to say that those three aspects above are trying to save Saturday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Heavy rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 1 hour ago, radarman said: Hey look... another rain event next Saturday. Enjoy!!! RIP LL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 1 hour ago, radarman said: Hey look... another rain event next Saturday. And the one after that too! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 36F at the summit with some showers moving in. Might need to get to the picnic tables. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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