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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread


Damage In Tolland
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8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Guess it happens for him there all year round…? 

I’d imagine sun angle and mixing has at least something to do with it.  In just two and a half months the sun angle starts rising.  Right now, there’s residual summer warmth with cold season solar.  It wedges.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I’d imagine sun angle and mixing has at least something to do with it.  In just two and a half months the sun angle starts rising.  Right now, there’s residual summer warmth with cold season solar.  It wedges.

I’m Sure you’re right, but just the same,  it’ll take almost two months for the sun angle to matter anyway, after it starts rising. And then there will be big time residual winter cold, with warm season solar. It wedges. 

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8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Some satellite image works that show foliage from space.  Imagery is crazy in this day and age.

 

Mansfield zoom.  Stowe southeast of the crest, Smuggs northwest of the divide.

8638E750-3941-47F8-9592-003270117D9D.thumb.jpeg.8316e14c972f07dbbc7582b6818ddabd.jpeg

The lower one looks like a closeup of a leaf with the color veining.  Do you have a link to the site?

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Snow by Halloween ( yet again ...) isn't just a GFS operational fantasy.   There are non-zero useful predictive metrics that signal what's become ( what I think - ) a recurrent autumn facet of CC during these early 20 ... 50 years.  And that's a tendency to fold the flow over continents earlier than normal.

There is so much latency of heat below 50 N around the hemisphere that the physical instant the Boreal winter season heights begin to fall, there is a subtle but all important stronger than normal jet response.  The western aspects of continental geology then bends the flow into ridging potential, ...which during years whence there is a +PNA tendency, together creates a non-linear but very real constructive interference. Boom!  Early cold synoptic interludes.

I certainly would not recommend wiener-ing oneself over these extended GFS solutions. However, I would definitely warn that everything ( plausible above) is in play and test.   

This is going to happen in autumns going forward - op ed.  This is also new climate tendency/paradigm that does not fit into traditional ENSO this, or polar index that. Those index modes may or may not be favorably coincident - when they are/not, there's constructive or destructive interference, respectively.  But it's very hard to parse out contribution from either.

This year, I would watch for +PNA mapped over top this 'folding tendency' ... Then as specific events materialize during those last two weeks of October ... we then deal with "model magnification" - in fact we're probably already looking at that in those fantasy range GFS looks.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is a solid 18-24” next weekend.

 

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you referring to next weekend? 

 

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

For SNE? 

 

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

That's what she said. 

Good morning C W, W W, Rtd208. Done … As always

 

IMG_6834.png

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