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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread


Damage In Tolland
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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models already started backing off the cool shot overnight . Whole month won’t torch but I wouldn’t be expecting cold freezes mid month other than NNE

Models will waffle back and forth but I think the +PNA that's common in Nino Octobers will win out. 

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Swamp maple are getting bright, starting to look nicer too it seems here…that is good news. 

Most of the oaks I see every year just turn brown anyway, and take forever to fall off. A few turn that deep burgundy…don’t know what species that is (red oak?), but those are the only oaks that I know of that actually look nice when they change in the autumn . 

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I've noticed this with smoke ( which makes sense considering atmospheric mechanics...).  It tends to alleviate as the sun climbs. The sky's less pall and more blue(ing) this late morning, being consistent with that observation.

71 .. .already vastly different appeal out there than that shit show that last 2 or 3 days.  Not even close. 

I don't know if October ends up above normal.  The +PNA in multi-guidance source teleconnector projections is real. We'll see.  But, there is also an AO that goes neutral-negative as we hit mid month, so now were converging cooler signals.   That all said, ... even telecon canvas can be less than stable in autumn(spring), so ..we'll wait on that.  But I would start with neutral and lean neggie pistol to head.  That's an abrupt change, too.  We could go from mid 80s (bd notwithstanding) to 50 with night freeze headlines toward the beginning of next week.  Shot across the bow but on the steeper side/steroid version.

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