WinterWolf Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I believe quite the opposite is true. Ya, I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Never really understood some folks angst over snow in October, I wouldn't mind it 9 mos out of the year...........lol Ya, it’s all Voo-Doo. Some think cuz it snows in October, it messes up the whole winter. There have been times where that’s happened, but it’s strictly just random BS. So bring the octobomb back..I’ll gladly accept. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Seabreeze has kept it 76-77 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the KU pattern evolutions we see in the winter, so the risk of a nor'easter is a good bit higher than normal 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man guidance is straight from a big dog winter look, for the following weekend. Srn stream energy, energy diving out of PAC NW, and a PV to our north. Man, you and Brooklyn99 sound alot alike all of a sudden. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, it’s all Voo-Doo. Some think cuz it snows in October, it messes up the whole winter. There have been times where that’s happened, but it’s strictly just random BS. So bring the octobomb back..I’ll gladly accept. I’ll take a snow storm any time of the year however just from memory it does seem that October snow storms tend to be followed by fairly warm winters whereas cold Octobers tend to be followed by cold winters, strictly from memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 hours ago, tamarack said: That's a sick tree. The first-year needles are yellow, while this time of year the 2nd-year needles would be falling off and the 1st years' needles are retained. I see green 1st-year needles in the upper right and right edge - different tree? Yeah that tree had others nearby. Here's one without any pines near it. Does that look okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 4, 2023 Author Share Posted October 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the KU pattern evolutions we see in the winter, so the risk of a nor'easter is a good bit higher than normal Next weekend is bring modeled as a strong screaming soueaster. I hope that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man guidance is straight from a big dog winter look, for the following weekend. Srn stream energy, energy diving out of PAC NW, and a PV to our north. yeah literally. would be screaming from the rooftops if this was Jan 4 instead of Oct 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Maybe it’s my imagination but it seems like, every other October, we get a big storm during peak foliage, to take all the leaves off the trees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: So are the first year needles the newer ones? Or the older ones? Newer - the ones that grew this past spring and summer. 2nd-year, the ones that grew last year and are falling off as I type. (There's also usually a few 3rd-year needles on the main stem.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Ya but that’s like going from an I phone 15, back to a cordless phone…lol. yeah window units are noisy and dont really take the humidity out of the air...also ugly hanging out of windows lol. Obviously central air costs alot to install and the housing stock in NE is older so you have alot of houses without it....most on my street put in CA over the past 20 yrs that we've been here-just too humid in the summers now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 22 minutes ago, kdxken said: Yeah that tree had others nearby. Here's one without any pines near it. Does that look okay? Yup. It's the "back-branch" needles yellowing (normally), not the branch tips. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, it’s all Voo-Doo. Some think cuz it snows in October, it messes up the whole winter. There have been times where that’s happened, but it’s strictly just random BS. So bring the octobomb back..I’ll gladly accept. At the local long-term co-op there's essentially no signal. Nov-May snow after an October with measurable snow is nearly identical to Nov-May snow following a snowless Oct. Octobomb was forecast to dump 12-16" here, verified at 4.5 and the rest of the winter usually did the same sort of thing. (Though Farmington's 8" is their biggest October snowfall, 1893 thru last Oct, when it went off-line. ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 In the years where ORH has had >6” of snow in the winter, the season has sucked. 100% of the time. (it has only happened twice ) and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, tamarack said: Yup. It's the "back-branch" needles yellowing (normally), not the branch tips. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 10 minutes ago, tamarack said: At the local long-term co-op there's essentially no signal. Nov-May snow after an October with measurable snow is nearly identical to Nov-May snow following a snowless Oct. Octobomb was forecast to dump 12-16" here, verified at 4.5 and the rest of the winter usually did the same sort of thing. (Though Farmington's 8" is their biggest October snowfall, 1893 thru last Oct, when it went off-line. ) I enjoy and appreciate your data-centric posts. While I personally believe that 100/150/200 years worth of data isn't enough to consistently confidently determine the outcomes of such a dynamic and complex system that is our weather, it's the only data we've got and it often does a respectable enough job to give us a heads up of what may be coming our way. I find it very interesting learning about similar historical data and potential analogs to current weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 On 10/3/2023 at 1:02 PM, TheClimateChanger said: Could see some readings approaching October monthly highs in parts of New England over the next couple days. Mount Washington is forecast to reach 60F today, which would tie October 12, 2021, for second warmest October day ever observed. The all-time monthly record is 62F, set on October 5, 2005. Burlington, Vermont is forecast to reach 84F tomorrow. The all-time monthly record high there is 85F, set on October 17, 1947 and on October 11, 1949. We did it! BTV reached at least 86F, setting a new October monthly record. 5 of 12 monthly record high values have now occurred since 2015, with records in the threaded history dating continuously to 1884. Mount Washington, NH reached at least 61F. I believe the low was 53F. Both of which would be the second highest observed in the month of October. If it doesn't tick up to 62F today, there is one last chance tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, Layman said: I enjoy and appreciate your data-centric posts. While I personally believe that 100/150/200 years worth of data isn't enough to consistently confidently determine the outcomes of such a dynamic and complex system that is our weather, it's the only data we've got and it often does a respectable enough job to give us a heads up of what may be coming our way. I find it very interesting learning about similar historical data and potential analogs to current weather. Many thanks. And because I enjoy deep-diving into wx history, it is especially sad when good long-term co-ops die. In addition to Farmington with its near-complete record (missing just 7 months in 130 yr and only 1 since 1909), 3 other century-plus sites have been lost since 2011 - Lewiston, Bridgton and Gardiner. This last is the only Maine co-op I've found with 3/1888 data. (They had 8" of paste with the day's temp 38/32.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Yeah if you go look at ORH which has a much better sample size of October events, I believe Will said there was basically no correlation. The 60s had some October snows, and those were good winters overall. Near the coast, the sample size isn't the best. It's also silly to somehow take a random and well timed event and have that somehow predict what a season will do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah if you go look at ORH which has a much better sample size of October events, I believe Will said there was basically no correlation. The 60s had some October snows, and those were good winters overall. Near the coast, the sample size isn't the best. It's also silly to somehow take a random and well timed event and have that somehow predict what a season will do. Yeah I ran the numbers a few years ago and the mean winter for ORH with measurable snow in October was basically the same as the regular mean. I think since I did those numbers, we had the October 2020 snow event, but that winter dumped like 77” of snow at ORH so it certainly didn’t bring it down…if anything, it prob pushed the number a small tick higher. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah if you go look at ORH which has a much better sample size of October events, I believe Will said there was basically no correlation. The 60s had some October snows, and those were good winters overall. Near the coast, the sample size isn't the best. It's also silly to somehow take a random and well timed event and have that somehow predict what a season will do. The myth seems much more prevalent the lower in snowfall climo you go. Like no one in NNE ever talks about October snows mattering or not. Definitely just a low sample size voodoo thing for lower snow climo areas on the forums. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah literally. would be screaming from the rooftops if this was Jan 4 instead of Oct 4 ... This appears to be a pan-dimenson hemispheric scaffold change. Every index from Japan to Greenland is connected to it, and the PNA is the most telling. It is correcting from -1 to almost +3 SD in a matter of mere days. To mode switch a domain space that size that quickly is highly unusual. Some sort of correction event in the heart of the winter would be dialed up by either a series of imports, or ... one giant ordeal. ... In early October, this is unfortunate for storm enthusiasts. The ambient baroclinicity is absent given to seasonality. We may plumb truck loads of 500 mb potential into the 100 to 90 W longitude with limited means to really drill it into the lower troposphere. There is some attempt on the first in the series that gets tangled up with Phillipe's guts. The GFS in particular goes from 990s to 970s mb drifting west of Toronto.. btw, I'd watch for a backside isallobaric wind burst when that bag of low pressure bombs exiting N across C/NNE in GFS recent solutions. Euro's been tamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The myth seems much more prevalent the lower in snowfall climo you go. Like no one in NNE ever talks about October snows mattering or not. Definitely just a low sample size voodoo thing for lower snow climo areas on the forums. Yup, It’s a joke…No correlation except for a random friek thing, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This appears to be a pan-dimenson hemispheric scaffold change. Every index from Japan to Greenland is connected to it, and the PNA is the most telling. It is correcting from -1 to almost +3 SD in a matter of mere days. To mode switch a domain space that size that quickly is highly unusual. Some sort of correction event in the heart of the winter would be dialed up by either a series of imports, or ... one giant ordeal. ... This is unfortunate for storm enthusiasts as the ambient baroclinicity is absent given to seasonality. We may plumb truck loads of 500 mb potential into the 100 to 90 W longitude with limited means to really drill it into the lower troposphere. There is some attempt on the first in the series that gets tangled up with Phillipe's guts. The GFS in particular goes from 990s to 970s mb drifting west of Toronto.. btw, I'd watch for a backside isallobaric wind burst when that bag of low pressure bombs exiting N across C/NNE in GFS recent solutions. Euro's been tamer. Bottom line, it’s too early for anything exciting yet..it’s too bad. Bring that back in two months though and….well I think we’d be smiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats on .75"+ of dry. Euro certainly does not show that. I’m expecting a cloudy, but mostly dry Saturday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 4, 2023 Author Share Posted October 4, 2023 What a summer night. Dews in high 60’s. Temps staying 65-70 for lows. This could never have happened 50 years ago sadly . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a summer night. Dews in high 60’s. Temps staying 65-70 for lows. This could never have happened 50 years ago sadly . Lol…sure it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup, It’s a joke…No correlation except for a random friek thing, period. I kid around about it each year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I kid around about it each year. Yup I know..we all do…lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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