Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread

[powderfreak]

Very aesthetically pleasing scene in the hardwoods right now.

[Snowcrazed71]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lock in that storm in the weenie gfs range 

Well it seems like the GFS had the storm for Wednesday pinned. It never had it hitting us, the euro had a hitting us and now the euro has backed off. So another win for the GFS I guess

[dendrite]

Ok back to weather…lol

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Ok back to weather…lol

Yes..agreed. 

[dendrite]

I moved everything over to banter so debate it there.

[bwt3650]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ok back to weather…lol

Yeah, sorry.  I took the bait.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Lock in that storm in the weenie gfs range 

Still a few weeks off from me paying any mind.

[cleetussnow]

Tis the season for posting 300 plus hr. GFS fantasy storms, about a month later than usual due to CC, though.  This will verify….as rain.  Note its a Saturday.  

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Tis the season for posting 300 plus hr. GFS fantasy storms, about a month later than usual due to CC, though.  This will verify….as rain.  Note its a Saturday.  

I get the sentiment but I'm not really ready to think that CC is effecting the GFS by a whole month before I'm willing to bet the GFS is just getting better.  There's been like 4 model updates since 2018.  LOL funny the way that was snuck in that post though. 

Seriously though, this was a very impressive -EPO burst over the last 10 days.  The subsequent cold roll-over across the continent as we near the entrance to the solar minimum months of the year is not entirely a bad fit for that index modality.  That's a marginal wet snow event depicted there on Novie 11.  I've seen enough fun NJ model lows throw down thundersnow on or around that date to know that's not really unprecedented.

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I get the sentiment but I'm not really ready to think that CC is effecting the GFS by a whole month before I'm willing to bet the GFS is just getting better.  There's been like 4 model updates since 2018.  LOL funny the way that was snuck in that post though. 

Seriously though, this was a very impressive -EPO burst over the last 10 days.  The subsequent cold roll-over across the continent as we near the entrance to the solar minimum months of the year is not entirely a bad fit for that index modality.  That's a marginal wet snow event depicted there on Novie 11.  I've seen enough fun NJ model lows throw down thundersnow on or around that date to know that's not really unprecedented.

2012 comes to mind

[CoastalWx]

47 and rain. Feels like last January.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

47 and rain. Feels like last January.

41 here so close yet so far

[kdxken]

32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

41 here so close yet so far

It would be so fine to see some snow at my door.

 

[ineedsnow]

can always hope that 934mb storm on the EPS is right   all kidding aside though there are a bunch of members forming something.. just have to get lucky enough for it to get pulled up at the right time 

[WxWatcher007]

12 years ago.

Connecticut has 1888, 1978, and 2013 in the Parthenon of all-time blizzards, but the impact of October 2011 is easily on par with those three here.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

47 and rain. Feels like last January.

too cold for last Jan

[Typhoon Tip]

Going by these NAM numbers … we enter a snow column staring in 30hrs

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro has ice in interior SNE next Wednesday with snow to north. GFS has mild rains. Wonder which will win 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro has ice in interior SNE next Wednesday with snow to north. GFS has mild rains. Wonder which will win 

Hammer the warmth 

[wx2fish]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro has ice in interior SNE next Wednesday with snow to north. GFS has mild rains. Wonder which will win 

That euro run has a better high location than anything we saw all of last winter. Bring those back 

[dendrite]

1/4-1/2SM at CAR this morning. Decent snow event up there for them

[ineedsnow]

one of the GEFS members gets down to 928 with many members just offshore at some point we can hope 

[Damage In Tolland]

37 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

That euro run has a better high location than anything we saw all of last winter. Bring those back 

Unfortunately it’s the Euro so has little to chance of verifying 

[apm]

Some eye candy for this gloomy day.

[Hoth]

39 minutes ago, apm said:

Some eye candy for this gloomy day.

I feel like I couldn’t even get a fantasy storm last winter, so I’ll take these teases as a good augury for this year. 

[mcap77]

Nice coating at a our cabin in Pittsburg. 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

2012 comes to mind

Yeah ...and while I'm dating myself, ha I go back to the 1980s.  A lot of autumns between 1985 and 1990 had an affinity for Novie events. Those were bad years overall for winter weather enthusiasts, but subjectivity aside ... they did produce some Novie exceptions to that rule.

One of my favorites was in 1986 ( but it might have been then one in 1987).  A high of 52 out at Logan the afternoon before. This was prior to the dramatic variability over short duration we've grown accustomed to over the decades since; back then, 52 would seem rather incongruous with any kind of dynamic snow bomb.  The sky was macro textured nearing sunset, the wind calms. Tranquil. Utterly unremarkable.

But while that was the case, upstream ... a nasty torpedo jet at mid levels (just a description for a powerful wind max embedded in a S/W that actually lacks a lot of geometric curvature) with a wind max over 120kts was unzipping the sky over the southern Great Lakes. Cleveland was reporting thundersnow around 3:30 pm.  It was somewhere around November 10 I wanna say but for all my protestation about my love for weather events, as well as my clear proclivity for discussion surrounding them ... I suck donkey balls at remembering dates. I am 100% certain this was November, tho.

Turned on The Weather Channel like any after-school day.  They were doing the Gardening Report segment, which at that time carried no meaning or purpose to the natural cosmos for me... but as it aired, "beep beep beep-beep.  beep beep beep-beep"  Fists grip thighs followed by my own, "OOH OOH OOH."  From right to left across the bottom of the screen scrolls, "...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FROM 11PM TONIGHT UNTIL 12PM TUESDAY ..."  Just typing that brings back memories, like when you hear a favorite song you haven't heard in a long while.  I used to love those moments. Steeped in boredom, seems there's nothing that is ever going to happen exciting ever again, when out of nowhere those beep chimes cut through the malaise like a light beam from salvation.

See, back then the culture of awareness was entirely a different reality.  There wasn't any internet.  There wasn't any cell phones.  I think personal pagers weren't even ubiquitous just yet.  The cable companies still only carried maybe 40 or 50 channels airing anything imaginable other than live news ... much less weather-related news information?  TWC was the only one that carried weather-related 'drama.'  Otherwise, you had to wait until 5 or 6 pm, 11pm or 7am to get updates and forecasts.  So, these tickers and special cut-ins were a bigger deal, an experience that will probably never be shared again since the 1990s rolled around and put the entire world in everyone's lap - it's been drama pap on tap ever since. A ticker for winter system wouldn't even lift a chin over a shoulder by most nowadays.

Anyway, Harvey Leonard ( recently retired) was a local on-air fan fav Met at the time, and he came on 5 and it was a dreamy presentation.  I remember his words, if not exact to a very close tolerance of precision, "Now, you might be thinking, 'what, snow' after a high temperature of 52 this afternoon, but it appears that as this storm emerges off the New Jersey coast overnight it will rapidly intensify and trickle down just enough cold air from up N to flip a lot of the area over to a period of heavy snow..."  -never forget.

I awoke at 3:30 am to the sound of thunder.  I could here rattling by the window at the far side of the bedroom, where the screen part of the storm window's metal frame had long since slipped it's rails and would upon occasion carry on with it when the wind blew.  As I was looking that direction through the dark at the butter scotch glow in the sky the bled through, there was another flash followed by the report.  That 2nd one had me out of bed and staring with gaped expression as curtains of snow, glowing from the city scape lights, waved their way over swaying silhouetted tree lines.  Another flash of lightning. 

So, I'm getting dress as quickly as possible... I think I actually kept my p.j. bottoms on and just threw on my boots and my winter parka/hoodie and set out.  The only sounds was that of snow particle on the hood and white howls of the wind as it transported heavy snow.  There was only 3 or 4" at the time... but it would end up closer to 10 or 11" by the time the storm wrapped up around 10am. I believe southern Mass put up some bigger numbers than that.  That was the only day in the entire 1980s I attended Acton Boxborough Regional High School where municipal would call it quits and phone in a snow day. 

Funny ... if a hockey rink dumps their Zamboni slush out back of the facility these days surrounding townships seem to call in snow days as if were a nuclear waste disposal accident. 

There was another one similar to that..  These are quick hitters, "New Jersey model lows" they used to be called in AFDs back in the day. They tend to come down as Alberta Clipper type lows. Some do and some don't have more obviously sexy storm vitals while diving SE over Chicago - this one with the Cleveland thunder snow apparently did.  But as they bottom out over the Ohio Valley and then immediately next ... their nose of dynamic power sniffs the baroclinic powderkeg along the Eastern Seaboard ...       boom!  Whatever they may have lacked, they can go from a limited satellite presentation to an explosive baroclinic leaf in a matter of short hours.   I guess if we want to be technical, Dec 2005 was one of these on 'roids.  1989 there was a biggie around Thanks Giving, but that one may have been a more full latitude type of storm genesis - different total spatial aspects.

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I feel like I couldn’t even get a fantasy storm last winter, so I’ll take these teases as a good augury for this year. 

Yes, I was thinking the same thing…didn’t even see anything like that last year.  So at least we’re starting to see some of those return. 

[dryslot]

Looks like its snowing good in Jackman as well.

http://72.65.119.134/axis-cgi/mjpg/video.cgi

 

[Layman]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Turned on The Weather Channel like any after-school day. 

How many other forums across the entirety of the internet are there where a statement like this arises and is likely received by nods of understanding rather than question marks? 

I enjoy hearing the stories of storms gone by.  They tend to get better with time and the memories are often better than the actual experience itself.