Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Very cold…all arctic sand. Sucked. About 10” worth. Definitely forgettable. 

We’d take 10” of sand given the last few years. 

[metagraphica]

1 hour ago, apm said:

That was the design of the building. 

 

 

29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So they designed it to just look like it’s leaning? Or the design is a lean?
 

I mean it seriously looks like it’s leaning. 

In better times...a view of the same building from the beach:

[metagraphica]

7 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

 

In better times...a view of the same building from the beach:

Condominio Marena.  Actually a little ways south of Acapulco Bay.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

 

In better times...a view of the same building from the beach:

So the thing is designed with a true lean..at least by the looks of it. Wow. 

[WxWatcher007]

There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind that parts of that region saw legitimate category five wind and impacts based on what I’ve seen so far. 

[kdxken]

Picking at the last piece of Summer. One more day...

 

 

[dendrite]

MHT 79 

[WxWatcher007]

Cloudy here. 67.9°

[dendrite]

The leaves are raining down today. Oaks are pretty much going to brown and falling.

77° here in CON now

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The leaves are raining down today. Oaks are pretty much going to brown and falling.

77° here in CON now

No clothes on while tending the chickens?

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No clothes on while tending the chickens?

It’s almost too hot in the sun. I may actually burn. 
 

Sunbathing chickens

[dendrite]

Glad we not in CT

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is still too far SE for the 11/1 threat.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Glad we not in CT

yeah cloudy here but looks to clear out some shortly

[rimetree]

Dazzling day at the seacoast

[WinterWolf]

Ya it sucks so far here today…stuck in solid overcast, and 67 degrees.  C’mon sun…let’s make a showing. 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is still too far SE for the 11/1 threat.

But when is it not too far SE at 5 days out? 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

But when is it not too far SE at 5 days out? 

Eh, it's def the bias of the GFS, but it actually went a bit SE from the 06z run....I'm not really all that invested yet since it's a D5 threat, but you prob don't want to see other guidance doing that...granted it wasn't a big move SE, prob mostly noise for a D5 prog....the GGEM looks quite similar to 00z.

I said yesterday I'd rather need a bit more amping up as we get closer rather than the other way around...and we're in that spot right now.

[CoastalWx]

It's a + tilted trough swinging in, so an offshore look certainly is valid. We'll see what the euro does. But for the GFS bias (not sure it's much of one anymore) the euro has the opposite bias too.

[WxWatcher007]

Sunday is going to be a shock to the system to many. From upper 70s Saturday to mid 40s Sunday on the GFS. 

[Layman]

38 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Dazzling day at the seacoast

Not complaining at all however...if I had any influence on when we get this kind of weather I'd prefer it arrive on March or April 27th rather than October 27th.  Those early warm days on the water in anticipation of the summer ahead are almost as good as the cool Fall days with graying skies and the hint of wood smoke in the air.  

[DavisStraight]

53 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Glad we not in CT

I'm at 68 here, maybe I'll hit 70 later.

[ORH_wxman]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a + tilted trough swinging in, so an offshore look certainly is valid. We'll see what the euro does. But for the GFS bias (not sure it's much of one anymore) the euro has the opposite bias too.

Yeah we'll need the trailing shortwave to trend a bit deeper....but again, that's a trend I'd rather need than deamplifying...feel like that's the best way to snow anyway. We'll want that airmass settled in as much as possible before the OH valley shortwave moves in.

The whole thing is still somewhat unlikely.....but can't complain too much about tracking even a marginal threat a few days before Halloween.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we'll need the trailing shortwave to trend a bit deeper....but again, that's a trend I'd rather need than deamplifying...feel like that's the best way to snow anyway. We'll want that airmass settled in as much as possible before the OH valley shortwave moves in.

The whole thing is still somewhat unlikely.....but can't complain too much about tracking even a marginal threat a few days before Halloween.

Definitely. Rather refreshing change. 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely. Rather refreshing change. 

Was just thinking this same thing…it’s a nice change from last years puke. 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we'll need the trailing shortwave to trend a bit deeper....but again, that's a trend I'd rather need than deamplifying...feel like that's the best way to snow anyway. We'll want that airmass settled in as much as possible before the OH valley shortwave moves in.

The whole thing is still somewhat unlikely.....but can't complain too much about tracking even a marginal threat a few days before Halloween.

Completely agree. Everybody knows how I feel about winter, but aside from any snow potential just getting a more winter like pattern—even if transient—will be a welcome change of pace. 

[Torch Tiger]

Stunning day, 80F

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Completely agree. Everybody knows how I feel about winter, but aside from any snow potential just getting a more winter like pattern—even if transient—will be a welcome change of pace. 

I wouldn't rule another threat trying to sneak into the fray either prior to mid-month in November....there's a bit of a relaxation after the initial 11/1 threat...like in the 11/3-5 window but then it looks like a potential reload of a colder shot...there's a weak NAO block that retrogrades and sort of re-invigorates the EPO cold loading, so it's something to watch.

This isn't super uncommon in El Nino Novembers either...you've probably noticed Scott and I talk about an early/mid November snow threat being a frequent feature of developing El Ninos.

The question is whether we can reattain the favorable pattern in December or if we have to wait until January.

 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wouldn't rule another threat trying to sneak into the fray either prior to mid-month in November....there's a bit of a relaxation after the initial 11/1 threat...like in the 11/3-5 window but then it looks like a potential reload of a colder shot...there's a weak NAO block that retrogrades and sort of re-invigorates the EPO cold loading, so it's something to watch.

This isn't super uncommon in El Nino Novembers either...you've probably noticed Scott and I talk about an early/mid November snow threat being a frequent feature of developing El Ninos.

The question is whether we can reattain the favorable pattern in December or if we have to wait until January.

 

Yeah, I think the first ten days of November are our period, and I actually like the potential related to that reinforcing cold around or after Election Day more than 11/1. 

Obviously too early to know what this means for December with the evolving El Niño, but I remain inclined to believe that winter down here doesn’t start in earnest until mid-January with an AN temp December and CT on the wrong side of a gradient pattern. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I am invested and planning on this to happen.