Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread

[ORH_wxman]

  On 10/24/2023 at 1:28 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Doubt I’ll ever see a thanksgiving snowstorm in my life.

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Full blown snowstorm or just a snow event that covers the grass? I’d be surprised if we didn’t get one of the latter over the next decade or two. We’ve had plenty of November snow events in the past decade too including that big one on 11/15/18. You just have to line it up so it occurs on Tday. 
 

It’s definitely a bit tougher down in SE MA but they do happen. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 10/24/2023 at 2:03 PM, bwt3650 said:

Lots of panic over these "firsts", but I think timing has a lot to do with it and they aren't necessarily a predictor of winter.

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They aren’t at all…but you’d swear they were by the way some base their ideas, and posts.  

[eekuasepinniW]

35.6 last night.

First time in the 30's this fall.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 10/24/2023 at 3:51 PM, WinterWolf said:

They aren’t at all…but you’d swear they were by the way some base their ideas, and posts.  

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ORH's latest freeze on record occurred in 1977....I think most would take that winter again.

[Brian5671]

  On 10/24/2023 at 3:51 PM, WinterWolf said:

They aren’t at all…but you’d swear they were by the way some base their ideas, and posts.  

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I think some of the really crappy winters scare people for example 01-02 I remember still having roses blooming in early Dec-that was definitely an indicator of what was to come....

[WinterWolf]

  On 10/24/2023 at 3:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

ORH's latest freeze on record occurred in 1977....I think most would take that winter again.

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This is exactly my point. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 10/24/2023 at 3:56 PM, Brian5671 said:

I think some of the really crappy winters scare people for example 01-02 I remember still having roses blooming in early Dec-that was definitely an indicator of what was to come....

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That’s entirely different than a first frost though… 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

  On 10/24/2023 at 2:21 PM, dendrite said:

Let’s do another 1950 this Novie

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Realistically what would be the return period for that event in this area? I read that 1950 caused 70 mph sustained at HFD which is pretty remarkable if accurate. In terms of non-tropical wind storms it was basically Columbus Day 1962 for the eastern US. Has any other non-tropical event even come close in terms of wind?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 10/23/2023 at 11:09 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Okay boomer . J/k

 

The lows are definitely lower now though. Tough to argue that.

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Not around here they haven't been....the dryness is the ultimate killer over interior SNE for winter snowfall.

For ORH, the 1984-1992 period had 4 (!!) winters below 40" including a low of 28.1" in 1988-89. In the past decade, they have had zero winters below 40" with a low of 44.9" in 2019-2020.

 

Even a warmer spot like KBOS saw a much worse streak as well....1984-1992 for BOS had 5(!!!) winters below 30" with 3(!!) below 20". In the past decade, they've seen 3 winters below 30" with 2 of them below 20"....and you could probably write off one of those below 30" as fake since it was the year when they measured on Deer Island sewer plant and recorded 27.4" when everyone else had at least 35"+ around them. The only futility BOS excelled at in the most recent decade compared to the 1980s was the lowest season was slightly lower (12.4" last year vs 15.1" in '88-89)....but overall, that 1984-1992 period was a lot worse.

[bwt3650]

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Not around here they haven't been....the dryness is the ultimate killer over interior SNE for winter snowfall.

For ORH, the 1984-1992 period had 4 (!!) winters below 40" including a low of 28.1" in 1988-89. In the past decade, they have had zero winters below 40" with a low of 44.9" in 2019-2020.

 

Even a warmer spot like KBOS saw a much worse streak as well....1984-1992 for BOS had 5(!!!) winters below 30" with 3(!!) below 20". In the past decade, they've seen 3 winters below 30" with 2 of them below 20"....and you could probably write off one of those below 30" as fake since it was the year when they measured on Deer Island sewer plant and recorded 27.4" when everyone else had at least 35"+ around them. The only futility BOS excelled at in the most recent decade compared to the 1980s was the lowest season was slightly lower (12.4" last year vs 15.1" in '88-89)....but overall, that 1984-1992 period was a lot worse.

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It's all perspective.  The 80's left a lasting childhood snow impression on some of us.  If you're childhood snow memories are  post  1993 Superstorm, you have a lot less tolerance for anything below normal.   

[radarman]

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:19 PM, bwt3650 said:

It's all perspective.  The 80's left a lasting childhood snow impression on some of us.  If you're childhood snow memories are  post  1993 Superstorm, you have a lot less tolerance for anything below normal.   

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This-- growing up in Dorchester in the early 80s we don't wistfully think back on the snowy winters of our youth

[DavisStraight]

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Not around here they haven't been....the dryness is the ultimate killer over interior SNE for winter snowfall.

For ORH, the 1984-1992 period had 4 (!!) winters below 40" including a low of 28.1" in 1988-89. In the past decade, they have had zero winters below 40" with a low of 44.9" in 2019-2020.

 

Even a warmer spot like KBOS saw a much worse streak as well....1984-1992 for BOS had 5(!!!) winters below 30" with 3(!!) below 20". In the past decade, they've seen 3 winters below 30" with 2 of them below 20"....and you could probably write off one of those below 30" as fake since it was the year when they measured on Deer Island sewer plant and recorded 27.4" when everyone else had at least 35"+ around them. The only futility BOS excelled at in the most recent decade compared to the 1980s was the lowest season was slightly lower (12.4" last year vs 15.1" in '88-89)....but overall, that 1984-1992 period was a lot worse.

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Will, what are Worcester's total snowfall the last 4 years? 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:27 PM, DavisStraight said:

Will, what are Worcester's total snowfall the last 4 years? 

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2019-2020: 44.9

2020-2021: 77.7

2021-2022: 53.6

2022-2023: 47.2

[ORH_wxman]

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:19 PM, bwt3650 said:

It's all perspective.  The 80's left a lasting childhood snow impression on some of us.  If you're childhood snow memories are  post  1993 Superstorm, you have a lot less tolerance for anything below normal.   

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Yes....if all anyone remembers is the good periods, then they aren't aware of the bad ones except maybe in theory or in the abstract. It's the same phenomenon growing up when we had to all listen to our parents wax poetic on how it always snowed all the time and there were no bad winters...."yeah no shit mom, you grew up during the one period in recorded history where there were 17 consecutive winters that didn't have below average snowfall".

[WinterWolf]

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:40 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yes....if all anyone remembers is the good periods, then they aren't aware of the bad ones except maybe in theory or in the abstract. It's the same phenomenon growing up when we had to all listen to our parents wax poetic on how it always snowed all the time and there were no bad winters...."yeah no shit mom, you grew up during the one period in recorded history where there were 17 consecutive winters that didn't have below average snowfall".

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Yes sir lol…my parents said the same thing.  Funny sh*t. 

[bwt3650]

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:42 PM, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir lol…my parents said the same thing.  Funny sh*t. 

The only positive I will say about the 80s, and this may be total bs and a clouded memory, but it seems like retention was better.  Those frigid 85 and 89 periods could make a dusting last a week. Building a couple ramps on my sled hill, I could be going for three weeks on a couple inches.

[DavisStraight]

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:42 PM, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir lol…my parents said the same thing.  Funny sh*t. 

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I grew up in the 60s and 70s so I'm one of those, when I was a kid, we had snow up to our waist. You seem to forget the bad years mixed in and there's a few. When I was a bit older and got into skiing, that was the 80s which sucked.

[tamarack]

  On 10/24/2023 at 2:01 PM, OceanStWx said:

I wasn't at GYX yet, but IIRC there was some influence of the bent back warm front. It was definitely not a typical southeaster strong wind event, but more northeasterly.

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All NE winds here during that event as well, but modest velocity.  After 10.7" with 2.67" LE interspersed with 1.14" of 33-35 RA, the 7" (2.7" LE) on the down-to-gravel driveway was far harder on the scoop than the 24" dump a year before, even though the earlier pow had to be pushed up and over the 4-foot-high snowbanks.  (Snowblower was out of commission for both winters, but it likely wouldn't have been able to handle the 2010 mush.)

First freeze this morning, 27° with a skim of ice on the washtub.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 10/24/2023 at 5:02 PM, bwt3650 said:

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:42 PM, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir lol…my parents said the same thing.  Funny sh*t. 

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The only positive I will say about the 80s, and this may be total bs and a clouded memory, but it seems like retention was better.  Those frigid 85 and 89 periods could make a dusting last a week. Building a couple ramps on my sled hill, I could be going for three weeks on a couple inches.

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Retention was definitely better in the 1980s....it was colder. The problem was that there was often no snow to retain....lol....and when there was, it wasn't much.

[SJonesWX]

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:40 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yes....if all anyone remembers is the good periods, then they aren't aware of the bad ones except maybe in theory or in the abstract. It's the same phenomenon growing up when we had to all listen to our parents wax poetic on how it always snowed all the time and there were no bad winters...."yeah no shit mom, you grew up during the one period in recorded history where there were 17 consecutive winters that didn't have below average snowfall".

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back when I was a kid, the snowbanks were always wicked tall!! 2 reasons for that:

1. I was a kid, and everything was taller than me

2. The snowplows didn't have the side wings to push the snowbanks back and out.

[Layman]

  On 10/24/2023 at 5:46 PM, SJonesWX said:

back when I was a kid, the snowbanks were always wicked tall!! 2 reasons for that:

1. I was a kid, and everything was taller than me

2. The snowplows didn't have the side wings to push the snowbanks back and out.

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[WinterWolf]

Retention was incredible in 2015, and 2011 though…best I’ve seen in my life…the amounts were incredible, and they stayed. 

[tamarack]

  On 10/24/2023 at 3:50 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Full blown snowstorm or just a snow event that covers the grass? I’d be surprised if we didn’t get one of the latter over the next decade or two. We’ve had plenty of November snow events in the past decade too including that big one on 11/15/18. You just have to line it up so it occurs on Tday. 
 

It’s definitely a bit tougher down in SE MA but they do happen. 

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Biggest Thanksgiving Day snowfall was 5.5" on 11/27/14, concluding the 13" event that's my only November storm with 10"+.  2nd place was 3.7" on 11/24/05, the weird event that spawned EF-0 and EF-1 tors on the midcoast.
Even less common is Easter snow, with one exception.  In 53 Maine Easters, none have delivered more than 0.4".  However, 3/29/1970 in NNJ brought 11" of low-mid 20s pow.  Even NYC got 4" from that one.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 10/24/2023 at 5:54 PM, tamarack said:

Biggest Thanksgiving Day snowfall was 5.5" on 11/27/14, concluding the 13" event that's my only November storm with 10"+.  2nd place was 3.7" on 11/24/05, the weird event that spawned EF-0 and EF-1 tors on the midcoast.
Even less common is Easter snow, with one exception.  In 53 Maine Easters, none have delivered more than 0.4".  However, 3/29/1970 in NNJ brought 11" of low-mid 20s pow.  Even NYC got 4" from that one.

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You must have been in NJ for this T-day event:

[tamarack]

  On 10/24/2023 at 5:52 PM, WinterWolf said:

Retention was incredible in 2015, and 2011 though…best I’ve seen in my life…the amounts were incredible, and they stayed. 

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Best retention here was 07-08, also our snowiest with 142.3".  Its 3,837 SDDs is easily #1.  2nd place was 18-19, though it was only 5th highest snowfall.  Its 3,441 SDDs came from long duration, 11/10 thru 4/20, built on dense snow plus significantly BN temps in March and April.  That winter's "retention factor" (SDDs/snowfall) was highest by far.  The second snowiest winter, 2000-01, ranks only 5th for SDDs, because it had only 79 going into the new year.  Tops for April, though.

You must have been in NJ for this T-day event:

If I had still lived in the Jersey Highlands where I grew up, probably would've seen 3-5".  However, we began married life in June of that year and though we lived less than 10 miles from my parents, it was also 500' lower.  Maybe we saw flakes but as my NNJ records are long lost, I can't remember.

[CoastalWx]

I remember so many bitter cold days with brown ground. Honestly, that is what comes to mind when I hear "80s." 

 

[DavisStraight]

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:37 PM, ORH_wxman said:

2019-2020: 44.9

2020-2021: 77.7

2021-2022: 53.6

2022-2023: 47.2

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For some reason it seems worse, I know I didn't do as well as Worcester but I'm usually close.

[Lava Rock]

frcast fail. Mstly cldy, 48.5F. Supposed to be mstly sunny/57F

[CoastalWx]

Nice day here. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/24/2023 at 4:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Not around here they haven't been....the dryness is the ultimate killer over interior SNE for winter snowfall.

For ORH, the 1984-1992 period had 4 (!!) winters below 40" including a low of 28.1" in 1988-89. In the past decade, they have had zero winters below 40" with a low of 44.9" in 2019-2020.

 

Even a warmer spot like KBOS saw a much worse streak as well....1984-1992 for BOS had 5(!!!) winters below 30" with 3(!!) below 20". In the past decade, they've seen 3 winters below 30" with 2 of them below 20"....and you could probably write off one of those below 30" as fake since it was the year when they measured on Deer Island sewer plant and recorded 27.4" when everyone else had at least 35"+ around them. The only futility BOS excelled at in the most recent decade compared to the 1980s was the lowest season was slightly lower (12.4" last year vs 15.1" in '88-89)....but overall, that 1984-1992 period was a lot worse.

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I missed that whole lows are lower comment. No way as you showed.