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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread


Damage In Tolland
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  On 10/20/2023 at 7:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

Weenie post…..but if extrapolated the euro op probably would have an interesting event post day 10. 
 

I know I know……but nothing else going on.

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I like it when you post like this…why not put it out there.  I’d never throw a weenie for that :thumbsup:.  
 

Thanks for sharing My Shepherd. 

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  On 10/20/2023 at 7:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

Weenie post…..but if extrapolated the euro op probably would have an interesting event post day 10. 
 

I know I know……but nothing else going on.

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Been a while since we had consistent N PAC look like that with the decent western ridge. I expect just a cold shot out of the general longwave look, but we obviously know that snow can happen that time of the year even if not all that frequently.

 

image.png.47c078f22f876fecd03f3313d3cc351e.png

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Foliage appeared to have two aspects going on...

 One, this Septoria fungus hurt a lot of trees. Those that were damaged tended to down leafs prematurely along with a poorer color presentation, much of which began a couple of weeks earlier than normal ( end-ish of September). 

 Two, those that were not affected appear to be transitioning into their expression peak a week to some 10 days late. 

It seems this latter aspect is 'salvaging' the season for some areas.  Lot of species that I grew up with would not carry on saffron and reds this late into October. Usually done by the 12th or 15th...  Interestingly, Oaks are going yellow up here - so there's something weird with them too

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  On 10/20/2023 at 6:12 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Not the best season for foliage, but it’s still pretty solid here. 

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In New England, below average colors are still quite pretty.  The one truly bad foliage season here was 2005. the year with no reds.  A week into October there was maybe 30% change, mostly to dull yellow.  Then the 8-9 weekend brought nearly 6" of wind-driven RA and on Monday at least 80% of the leaves were on the ground.

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  On 10/20/2023 at 7:42 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Been a while since we had consistent N PAC look like that with the decent western ridge. I expect just a cold shot out of the general longwave look, but we obviously know that snow can happen that time of the year even if not all that frequently.

 

image.png.47c078f22f876fecd03f3313d3cc351e.png

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Look at the H5 vorticity. Can see how something could happen shown.

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  On 10/20/2023 at 11:49 PM, CoastalWx said:

Look at the H5 vorticity. Can see how something could happen shown.

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Yeah. Actually looks an awful lot like 10/10/79…with that wave developing along the frontal boundary. 

Regardless, EPS is really hitting the cold hard on todays 12z run for Halloween and just afterward. 

 

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