tamarack Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I think this looks primed to come down in the rain. If we get 2” and some breeze, it’ll be stick season real fast. Raking leaves today. Contributor trees are 80-90% bare and the leaves are extra crispy. 1-2" RA would make the job 10X harder. from Coastalwx: Lots of color on the maples all around. Norway's just turning brown and dropping. Oaks starting to turn orange, brown, and yellow, but lots of green on them still. My parents retired to Woodsville, NH and had a large (20" diam.) one of those European invaders next to their driveway. Its leaves would stubbornly stay green as the native trees peaked, then it would drop nearly all its leaves in a single day, still green. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Does that eve do anything for sne or is this weenie science . I recall folks salivating for Siberian snow cover or something in October ...then that fetish went away . Seems like it fills a void for something for someone in sne to do While they wait for winter to appear in December or whenever it may . I just want some hope that we won’t see storms that ram the mix line up to Quebec City in mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 45 minutes ago, tamarack said: Raking leaves today. Contributor trees are 80-90% bare and the leaves are extra crispy. 1-2" RA would make the job 10X harder. from Coastalwx: Lots of color on the maples all around. Norway's just turning brown and dropping. Oaks starting to turn orange, brown, and yellow, but lots of green on them still. My parents retired to Woodsville, NH and had a large (20" diam.) one of those European invaders next to their driveway. Its leaves would stubbornly stay green as the native trees peaked, then it would drop nearly all its leaves in a single day, still green. Yep. Stubborn bastards. Luckily I have the whole neighborhood cheering when they break or lose limbs in storms. I loathe them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Does that eve do anything for sne or is this weenie science . I recall folks salivating for Siberian snow cover or something in October ...then that fetish went away . Seems like it fills a void for something for someone in sne to do While they wait for winter to appear in December or whenever it may . I think its like most other tools...there is some utility, but its not the silver bullet of seasonal forecasting that it was originally made out to be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think its like most other tools...there is some utility, but its not the silver bullet of seasonal forecasting that it was originally made out to be. I studied it for 10 years and I found there was a definite positive correlation with the d(d(cryo). In other words rate of change, more than if it is adding at all. The problem is I had to stop because the land snow entry times were pushing later in the year. Some were mid way through all of September before the snow accelerated in land coverage which skews the data set toward irrelevant if I have wait until the f month of October itself. There may still be a correlation ... in fact I suggest there is. But I haven't bothered to slide the time range to include more of late October and November, which are already (technically) too late and intra-cold season above 65 N. The purpose of the analysis was "leading" indicator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 4 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Does that eve do anything for sne or is this weenie science . I recall folks salivating for Siberian snow cover or something in October ...then that fetish went away . Seems like it fills a void for something for someone in sne to do While they wait for winter to appear in December or whenever it may . I'm team the atmosphere can do whatever the hell it wants whenever it wants. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Looks dry here, AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Kinda surprised by lack of interest with Phillip remnants. I think Lee hugely disappointed and is resulting in some recency bias to the downside. Also over confidence on final outcome. Looks like it’s gonna rock for a bit when it comes in. It’s a very low bar but I’m expecting a lot more interesting weather than with Lee. Only worth mentioning because of how much stronger Lee was at this lat/long. Today’s earlier transition to extra tropical opens up a closer approach than guidance consensus and a stronger system at our latitude, given the sig UL trough dynamics. It also means toss the 18z GFS very far. Worst weather looks close to Portland Maine. Wouldn’t rule out a shot at sub 980 upon closest approach. Send the weenie tags. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Kinda surprised by lack of interest with Phillip remnants. I think Lee hugely disappointed and is resulting in some recency bias to the downside. Also over confidence on final outcome. Looks like it’s gonna rock for a bit when it comes in. It’s a very low bar but I’m expecting a lot more interesting weather than with Lee. Only worth mentioning because of how much stronger Lee was at this lat/long. Today’s earlier transition to extra tropical opens up a closer approach than guidance consensus and a stronger system at our latitude, given the sig UL trough dynamics. It also means toss the 18z GFS very far. Worst weather looks close to Portland Maine. Wouldn’t rule out a shot at sub 980 upon closest approach. Send the weenie tags. Lee was a bust here just north of pym. Almost no rain, but some some wind. Tomorrow looks to be almost the oppositeSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 About a 4 mile backup on Rte 100 from I-89 to the North. Unsure what it was from other than heavy peeper traffic- so many white plates. Perhaps it was just Ben and Jerry's traffic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, klw said: About a 4 mile backup on Rte 100 from I-89 to the North. Unsure what it was from other than heavy peeper traffic- so many white plates. Perhaps it was just Ben and Jerry's traffic. Dendrite approved 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: The 2 day rainer has begun. And we do it all over again next weekend ! Thanks for the warning..... can't believe how " NOT " wet it is out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 1 hour ago, klw said: About a 4 mile backup on Rte 100 from I-89 to the North. Unsure what it was from other than heavy peeper traffic- so many white plates. Perhaps it was just Ben and Jerry's traffic. Town of Stowe holds a massive arts/crafts fair during this long/holiday foliage weekend in the Topnotch Fields and it is often one of the biggest clusterf*cks of the year. Maybe the field will be a mud pit with hundreds of cars marooned axel deep? The traffic this weekend historically can be bumper to bumper from I-89 through Waterbury/Center and through Stowe lol. It’s been gridlocked past my place 4 miles away from the craft fair too. People love when leaves change color. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I'm team the atmosphere can do whatever the hell it wants whenever it wants. You’re in the minority for a Meteorologist! But I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 72F today and currently 66/61 at 8:45pm. Its like a summer evening with dews over 60F. Our normal low is now in the upper 30s (38F or 39F at MVL). This first week is going to be like +13 lol… hard to recover from fully for the month. This has been a torch for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 72F today and currently 66/61 at 8:45pm. Its like a summer evening with dews over 60F. Our normal low is now in the upper 30s (38F or 39F at MVL). This first week is going to be like +13 lol… hard to recover from fully for the month. This has been a torch for the ages. Just enjoy! Who the hell cares. The cold will come soon enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Just enjoy! Who the hell cares. The cold will come soon enough. Oh I hope it didn’t sound like I wasn’t enjoying it! Ha. Been outside till dusk every single day. The rain and cold afterwards will suck… won’t enjoy that as much for sure for being outside. I hope by mentioning the historical relevance that it didn’t come across as I am yearning for cold. This has been a great stretch of blow torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 38 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Thanks for the warning..... can't believe how " NOT " wet it is out there. Radar is pretty anemic for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 53 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oh I hope it didn’t sound like I wasn’t enjoying it! Ha. Been outside till dusk every single day. The rain and cold afterwards will suck… won’t enjoy that as much for sure for being outside. I hope by mentioning the historical relevance that it didn’t come across as I am yearning for cold. This has been a great stretch of blow torch. No worries Friek…perhaps I misunderstood? But I get ya. I think you guys might have even been a bit warmer than here on Tuesday, and especially Wednesday. Yesterday was absolute perfection here(75 or so and Crystal clear), I was outside all afternoon with my PE classes, and it was perfect…even in the sun. But I’m ready for the cool down now…let the summer season go, bring on full Autumn now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 1 hour ago, klw said: About a 4 mile backup on Rte 100 from I-89 to the North. Unsure what it was from other than heavy peeper traffic- so many white plates. Perhaps it was just Ben and Jerry's traffic. The stretch of 95 North from Portsmouth to Portland was pretty heavily congested tonight, much more than I'd expect for this weekend given the forecast. 90% out of state plates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 1 hour ago, klw said: About a 4 mile backup on Rte 100 from I-89 to the North. Unsure what it was from other than heavy peeper traffic- so many white plates. Perhaps it was just Ben and Jerry's traffic. There was a huge backup on 209 and 495 this afternoon too. No accidents so not sure why it was so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, tunafish said: The stretch of 95 North from Portsmouth to Portland was pretty heavily congested tonight, much more than I'd expect for this weekend given the forecast. 90% out of state plates. My sisters went up to stay with my sister this weekend and got stuck in that traffic. They hit it on 290, 495 and 95. Took them a long time to get up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: Kinda surprised by lack of interest with Phillip remnants. I think Lee hugely disappointed and is resulting in some recency bias to the downside. Also over confidence on final outcome. Looks like it’s gonna rock for a bit when it comes in. It’s a very low bar but I’m expecting a lot more interesting weather than with Lee. Only worth mentioning because of how much stronger Lee was at this lat/long. Today’s earlier transition to extra tropical opens up a closer approach than guidance consensus and a stronger system at our latitude, given the sig UL trough dynamics. It also means toss the 18z GFS very far. Worst weather looks close to Portland Maine. Wouldn’t rule out a shot at sub 980 upon closest approach. Send the weenie tags. I had zero interest in Lee, so this won't cut it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: My sisters went up to stay with my sister this weekend and got stuck in that traffic. They hit it on 290, 495 and 95. Took them a long time to get up there. Not surprised. Looked more like a Friday at 6pm in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 AC on tonight, worst night so far. Still in upper 60s outside and house was 77, had to turn it on. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: AC on tonight, worst night so far. Still in upper 60s outside and house was 77, had to turn it on. BTV still 70F on the blowtorch southerly flow. It’s pretty impressive. 67F MVL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 Closer to putting the heat on here. High was 64.6F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Closer to putting the heat on here. High was 64.6F Really? You must live in a cool hollow. Air on here and loving it..so dry. So cool. It’ll probably be the last night…but flip the central air switch/just like the heat, and it’s beautiful when ya need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: AC on tonight, worst night so far. Still in upper 60s outside and house was 77, had to turn it on. Absolutely. Came home about nine, and temp was 76 in the house…air went on immediately. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: Closer to putting the heat on here. High was 64.6F The wedge that develops there (during the cold season under the surface inversion) is a fun phenomenon. SE of the mountains, just pocketed in those CAD areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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