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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread


Damage In Tolland
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  On 10/2/2023 at 6:01 PM, dendrite said:

I mean there's cooler compared to normal and cooler compared to this week.

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Yeah moving forward you can't compare this week to anything. Anything is going to be cooler compared to this, even an above-average pattern. Have to compare to climo essentially. 

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  On 10/2/2023 at 5:57 PM, dendrite said:

Keep that upper low to our NW like the goofus and it may not be that cool compared to normal.

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Yeah...seems the operational versions ( Euro too - ) are attempting to counter-signal their own ensemble means.  interesting -

I did warn folks that there may be some 'model magnification' going on. There was speculation about upslope snow in the extended but I figured it would depend on whether there was that amplitude bias commonly found in the D8+ range.  That all said, the trough depth and colder implication could come back, but this tendency for 'moon rise' ballooning the features out at the temporal horizon is like that in all guidance - I think it's an unavoidable emergence of the technology at this point. 

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