Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Yeah, this has a warm look to it (-AAM), going from the 1st week into the 2nd week of November https://ibb.co/yYXvFkF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, this has a warm look to it (-AAM), going from the 1st week into the 2nd week of November https://ibb.co/yYXvFkF Leftovers from a triple nina? If we’re going to get this, better in Nov than mid winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 It seems to switch back to that La Nina base-state just as we were entering the +correlation time for the Winter (Oct is like 52% correlated, Nov 60%). It just seems to be all around acting as a Weak El Nino event, and I think we could see El Nino patterns in the Winter, but they may be more short lived, and always in a mode of change. If we see 3-4 months of +PNA or GOA low like other El Nino's it would surprise me... Something like the MJO might rise up to be a strong driver this Winter, with lack of other strong connectors. We still favor a +PNA general tendency but it's sheared out a little too much in a fast flow of constant change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 There it is 18z GFS ensembles went much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 22, 2023 Author Share Posted October 22, 2023 None of the seasonal models have shown a cold November or December but rather a transition to an eastern trough as we get into January. Could we thread the needle with a cold enough storm to bring some snow for the holidays, sure....but way too soon to figure that out yet. WB 0Z EPS teleconnections don't scream torch or bitter cold pattern the next 2 weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 22, 2023 Author Share Posted October 22, 2023 WB latest EURO weeklies are within a degree of average for November and average precipitation. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 22, 2023 Author Share Posted October 22, 2023 WB latest GEFS extended and EPS weeklies do forecast snow in our cold source regions the next month, which can't hurt our prospects for some cold in December. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 I'd take a climo November in a skinny minute. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB latest GEFS extended and EPS weeklies do forecast snow in our cold source regions the next month, which can't hurt our prospects for some cold in December. 4 out of the last 6 years there has been record North America snow cover in December, with several of those winters showing indications of a weaker PV demonstrated by significant periods of a negative AO. A few Decembers during this period had a cold weather in the East. However, the majority lost the record snow cover and it turned warmer after mid to late December. Not sure if any one signal, or long range model has any accuracy in this day and age. Even the periods with a deeply negative AO , a great indicator of snow potential , produced very little, if any snowfall here. Seems possible that a perfect Pacific pattern may be needed to produce snowfall in the Mid Atlantic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 2 hours ago, frd said: 4 out of the last 6 years there has been record North America snow cover in December, with several of those winters showing indications of a weaker PV demonstrated by significant periods of a negative AO. A few Decembers during this period had a cold weather in the East. However, the majority lost the record snow cover and it turned warmer after mid to late December. Not sure if any one signal, or long range model has any accuracy in this day and age. Even the periods with a deeply negative AO , a great indicator of snow potential , produced very little, if any snowfall here. Seems possible that a perfect Pacific pattern may be needed to produce snowfall in the Mid Atlantic region. Makes sense. We get flooded with Pacific Puke on a routine basis anymore. No reason to think we'll ever see a big snow year again in these parts outside of another Jan 2016 that skews the mean. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 I wonder if we'll get late November snow this year. It's been a persistent pattern of a trough over the EC 75% of the time since the Spring, so that may carry. I don't really agree with everyone saying warm November and December. Why are Nino's warm in December? They don't know. It just lack of a big dataset, plus La Nina's don't follow the opposite route. I would say 70% chance it's cooler (<+2F) in late Nov and December just carrying forward the conditions of this year. The pattern is quick, but it was a "cooler Summer", "on-time Fall" "on-time Spring", for the most part.. 4-5 days of really warm this week, but it's still -EPO and somewhat +PNA in the pacific (more rogue SE ridge happening than index correlated). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Definitely a warm signal the 2nd week of November. https://ibb.co/NZvcS56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 I was actually going to mention in the main thread that I see a bit of a signal for a Northeast snowstorm in mid-November. But I'm not really confident in it. It would be during the transition from the warm spell to a cooler spell that should set up after 11/15 or so. The SE ridging is how I think the -PDO aspect will play out as it weakens from super negative to weakly or moderately negative. Often the super -PDO is just a Western trough (1988 as an example), but the weaker ones are SE ridging. That's been my premise for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 lol euro with a snowstorm for Western MD and parts of PA next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ji said: lol euro with a snowstorm for Western MD and parts of PA next week The Euro is trending in the right direction! - Slowly the storm formation from the diving energy is aligning better! A few more improvements and it will be more interesting to watch.. BUT, I do not believe any of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 I still contest that Greenland troughs are correlating with troughs over the EC, and Greenland ridges are correlating with SE ridges. 13-14, 14-15 story never went away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 On 10/24/2023 at 3:58 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Definitely a warm signal the 2nd week of November. https://ibb.co/NZvcS56 Models have been busting on warmer patterns like crazy. Seen quite a few major adjustments in the last few months. Since the El Nino began this year, LR model accuracy went down like 40%, especially leading to the more extended period.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Models have been busting on warmer patterns like crazy. Seen quite a few major adjustments in the last few months. Since the El Nino began this year, LR model accuracy went down like 40%, especially leading to the more extended period.. Meaning they bust too warm and it ends up colder, or they underestimate the warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 29 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Meaning they bust too warm and it ends up colder, or they underestimate the warmth? They just flip-out the entire pattern completely. I've seen this especially with Aleutian High's, they will show +300dm on the ensemble mean then the next day it's +50dm, some -epo's, some +pna's, but not wanting to organize in the -PNA region. I've been watching models to 15-day for 5 straight years, and it's never varied so much as this year, and since the El Nino started getting strong. I'm not saying it's going to produce more cold, just that these usually reliable time indicators are verifying much lower. I was getting a +200dm -PNA signal and -200dm +NAO for the 2nd week of Nov, now it's "sheared out" to almost nothing. Just been interesting to watch a random model error consistently happen. (They used to jump from 100dm to 80dm max, now it's like 100dm to 20-40dm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 6 hours ago, Ji said: lol euro with a snowstorm for Western MD and parts of PA next week Ugh no I need another month to pour concrete in western MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 21 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ugh no I need another month to pour concrete in western MD. What, to give them an urban heat island out of pure spite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: What to give them an urban heat island out of pure spite? Would take a hell of a lot of concrete to overwhelm the microclimate out there lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 Looks like a frosty morning across the area next Thursday as the unseasonably warm weather finally abates and a series of cold fronts move through. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Would take a hell of a lot of concrete to overwhelm the microclimate out there lol. 7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: What, to give them an urban heat island out of pure spite? Naw. Details next week. Cool stuff happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 lol I'm pouring a garage slab out in deep creek on Thursday, got my heater ready and hoping it warms up during the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 3 hours ago, mdhokie said: lol I'm pouring a garage slab out in deep creek on Thursday, got my heater ready and hoping it warms up during the day. Tis the season! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 3 hours ago, nj2va said: Tis the season! Good luck! Trying to get under roof before the blizzards hit this winter! . This week was great weather, next week, nasomuch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 Lock it in!!! First digital snowfall IMBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 Seeing some crazy ens outputs posted on Twitter related to the “snowicane” that the OP GFS teased on some random run. Almost enough to make me renew my WxBell subscription before November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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