October Long Range

[CAPE]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Real +PNA doesn't get going until Oct 16th now, and then it appears short-lived. 

On the latest ens runs, +PNA looks to get established just prior to mid month, and then lock in for the next week(through the end of the run). A bit of an EPO ridge too.

[George BM]

[WxUSAF]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

On the latest ens runs, +PNA looks to get established just prior to mid month, and then lock in for the next week(through the end of the run). A bit of an EPO ridge too.

BAMwx on Twitter also mentioning a recurving WPac typhoon that would reinforce an eastern trough late month potentially. 

[BristowWx]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

BAMwx on Twitter also mentioning a recurving WPac typhoon that would reinforce an eastern trough late month potentially. 

wish we could push that forward about a month.  would love to see an 11/11/87 repeat before I take a dirt nap

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, CAPE said:

On the latest ens runs, +PNA looks to get established just prior to mid month, and then lock in for the next week(through the end of the run). A bit of an EPO ridge too.

You captured the core +PNA there. Compared to what models were showing, it's much later developing, and not as strong. They originally had Oct 8-9 as the start of it, now it's a sheered out at that time. It's in prime position for 3-4 days then it breaks down. I have to think the PDO making a run a -3 right now, which is near record, has somewhat of a reason why it trended less impressive.  

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS.  Impressive cold shot in fantasy land if verifies means first freeze in sight N&W. 

[nj2va]

Give us that H5 look over and over in D/J/F please.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Give us that H5 look over and over in D/J/F please.

Yea that ridge is cresting right over the smokestack of Idaho. Money.

[stormy]

GFS predicts heavy snow in mts. of W.Va. Oct. 23.

[Weather Will]

3 hours ago, stormy said:

GFS predicts heavy snow in mts. of W.Va. Oct. 23.

I love the snow maps as much as anyone, but to keep the snow map police at bay, couple of pointers, outside 5 days, the global snow maps are worthless,  at 3-5 days they may be onto something if there is more than one global model supporting the scenario.  Outside 5 days look for any trend on the ensembles.  In this case, no real GEFS support at range.

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

I love the snow maps as much as anyone, but to keep the snow map police at bay, couple of pointers, outside 5 days, the global snow maps are worthless,  at 3-5 days they may be onto something if there is more than one global model supporting the scenario.  Outside 5 days look for any trend on the ensembles.  In this case, no real GEFS support at range.

Thanks Will. I understand completely. 384 hrs is wishcasting regardless of the source.  A month or 3 months or 6 months is also wishcasting, even more so.  There are many posts that do not pass reasonable scrutiny. As far as Snow Map Police, I couldn't care less. They are only foolishly criticizing a guessing game that they are addicted to.

I look at the CFS and ECMWF longrange stuff occasionally as well as the Cansips and others. Some really put high hopes on or even debate micro elements in something that changes tomorrow or next week or next month. To me it is little more than trivial distraction.

It was just a quiet Sunday morning and I decided to post something rather unusual for this early date.

Here we are are looking at 12z and its gone!!!! 

[wxdude64]

On 10/7/2023 at 7:37 AM, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS.  Impressive cold shot in fantasy land if verifies means first freeze in sight N&W. 

LOL, well my average for that date is 64/38 for a 51 normal, a -18 to -19 WOULD be right chilly. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS, CMC, and EPS Ens.   Another wet weekend on tap...

[WxUSAF]

Ensembles in agreement on coupled -EPO/+PNA D10-15. Should provide first freeze chances to many. 
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Now the +PNA is more impressive.. models were backing off for a while. It would be nice to see a pattern last for more than a short time though.. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS, CMC, and EPS Ens.   Another wet weekend on tap...

In the Winter, that would probably be snow if it were the same pattern. 

[Terpeast]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In the Winter, that would probably be snow if it were the same pattern. 

Thats a promising sign, and one we’d prefer to see in October than November

[midatlanticweather]

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1711735704957440179?s=20

 

 

Stuff we already been discussing

 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Thats a promising sign, and one we’d prefer to see in October than November

What is the advantage of seeing this in October over November?

[Terpeast]

41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What is the advantage of seeing this in October over November?

GaWx in the SE forum sniffed out a partial correlation between BN Oct and BN winters in the SE up to MA. He made a very convincing case to root for a cold Oct over a cold Nov. 

I’ve also anecdotally observed that cold Novembers usually lead to milder winters especially in ninos. 

[stormy]

43 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

GaWx in the SE forum sniffed out a partial correlation between BN Oct and BN winters in the SE up to MA. He made a very convincing case to root for a cold Oct over a cold Nov. 

I’ve also anecdotally observed that cold Novembers usually lead to milder winters especially in ninos. 

What does this really mean????

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, stormy said:

What does this really mean????

 

 

[CAPE]

This would be a pretty nice h5 look heading into December instead of November.

 

[mattie g]

13 hours ago, stormy said:

What does this really mean????

I *think* it means that, if we want a better shot at below normal temps in winter, then we should root for a chilly October rather than a chilly November, but perhaps my reading comprehension isn't as good as it once was.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I *think* it means that, if we want a better shot at below normal temps in winter, then we should root for a chilly October rather than a chilly November, but perhaps my reading comprehension isn't as good as it once was.

That’s pretty much it. I shared the above threads because they had the numbers to back it up. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is one heck of a -NAO signal 

https://ibb.co/tbC17N6

I wonder if it's going to coincide with a warm Stratosphere, and if so,  that is a signal to downwell around or before Christmas time, if 10mb warming does go with this. 

[stormy]

9 hours ago, mattie g said:

I *think* it means that, if we want a better shot at below normal temps in winter, then we should root for a chilly October rather than a chilly November, but perhaps my reading comprehension isn't as good as it once was.

I am beginning to be concerned more about precipitation than temperatures. An historical Nino gives heavy precipitation to the Carolina's and south with Va/Maryland being on the northern fringe.  Nearly all current guidelines suggest this may be a suppression winter when we so desperately need heavy precipitation for the widespread drought, especially western areas.

[mattie g]

13 hours ago, stormy said:

I am beginning to be concerned more about precipitation than temperatures. An historical Nino gives heavy precipitation to the Carolina's and south with Va/Maryland being on the northern fringe.  Nearly all current guidelines suggest this may be a suppression winter when we so desperately need heavy precipitation for the widespread drought, especially western areas.

They do? It does?

[WxUSAF]

Still think first freeze pretty likely at some point the last full week of the month.

 

[Terpeast]

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Still think first freeze pretty likely at some point the last full week of the month.

 

 

And that ridge NW of Hawaii has got to go, too.