Weather Will Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 WB latest GEFS and EURO weeklies for October 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Looks like a cool shot mid-month and dry conditions ahead! I do not love this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Looks like a cool shot mid-month and dry conditions ahead! I do not love this pattern. I wouldn’t worry about dry in October. 72-73 had barrage of precipitation in November and December. Not sure about October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Models are really strong on +PNA starting around Oct 9th, which is generally a cooler than average pattern here. Right now GEFS has it lasting through at least Oct 15. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 1, 2023 Author Share Posted October 1, 2023 WB 6Z GFS, last couple runs wetter for Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS, last couple runs wetter for Friday/Saturday. Literally, the only times I don't want rain. Lol. Hiking trip to Blackwater looks in peril again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Literally, the only times I don't want rain. Lol. Hiking trip to Blackwater looks in peril again. Not to mention Os playoff game and Billy Joel concert in Baltimore. If theres a weekend we don't need precipitation, this is it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Really nice signal for a +PNA Oct 14-19, it should correlate with a trough over the EC. The Oct 9 signal for the start of +PNA has been pushed back due to the low becoming more +EPO-like, I think because of the -PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 WB 6Z GFS, last couple runs wetter for Friday/Saturday.That seemed overdone lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 4, 2023 Author Share Posted October 4, 2023 WB latest EURO weeklies for mid November. Looks different from last year... 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 <fearful weenie> NO NOVEMBER SNOW! </fearful weenie> 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Nov 15th, 2018 was my last big snowstorm with 5.5". no storm has topped that since. 18-19 was a Weak Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 7 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EURO weeklies for mid November. Looks different from last year... They basically just initialize MR/LR models out... there is a good cold pattern setup coming and they apply that to the 4-6 week range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nov 15th, 2018 was my last big snowstorm with 5.5". no storm has topped that since. 18-19 was a Weak Nino. We got 2" from that one here, but more than 9" from the early-January 2022 event. That 2022 one was cool because it flipped from light rain to ripping snow while temps dropped during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Mother’s house in Vienna got 10” in Jan 2018 and 9” in Jan 2022. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: Mother’s house in Vienna got 10” in Jan 2018 and 9” in Jan 2022. Missed January 2018 in my notes - we had 10" as well. Really interesting how you can definitely see how the atmosphere is responding to the change in seasons as each run looks out further into October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nov 15th, 2018 was my last big snowstorm with 5.5". no storm has topped that since. 18-19 was a Weak Nino. I suffered a major ice-storm that cost thousands in cleanup on November 15, 2018. January 3, 2022 received 8 " snow with drifting. January 17,2022 another 8.5" snow mixed with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 I've had a lot of less than 5.5" storms since then, but pretty unbelievable that that record has held through 5 years. Power of La Nina/peak -PDO. Average here is 32"/yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 WB latest EURO weeklies for mid November. Looks different from last year...I thought weeklies ran Monday and Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Saw this on Twitter today. Do we even want a cold November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 So far I’d say October’s going to look nationwide more like the warm version on top than that frigid version on the bottom even if we have a chance at a BN month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 So far I’d say October’s going to look nationwide more like the warm version on top than that frigid version on the bottom even if we have a chance at a BN month. Yep we got some work to do to get that blue lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 I personally hope Oct and Nov both blowtorch and dec-feb be colder than normal imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 On 10/1/2023 at 8:48 AM, mdhokie said: Not to mention Os playoff game and Billy Joel concert in Baltimore. If theres a weekend we don't need precipitation, this is it. I love Billy Joel. Grew up with his music. Everything he sings reminds me of ripping snow at 9 degrees in Dale City in January. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 15 hours ago, Jebman said: I love Billy Joel. Grew up with his music. Everything he sings reminds me of ripping snow at 9 degrees in Dale City in January. It's nine degrees in JanuaryThe AmWx crowd shuffles inThere's the Jebman sittin' next to meTellin' tales about storms he's been in He says, Dude why must it be a Miller B?I'm not really sure when it snowsBut it's sad when it's sleet and not measured in feetWhile the blizzard in New York blows La, la-la, di-di-daLa-la di-di-da da-dum Bring us some snow, you're the JebmanBring us some snow tonightWell, we're all in the mood for a KU treatBut the ground ain't lookin' too white Now Bob at the bar is a friend of mineHe posts snow depth maps for free But the climate's warming, and he's now squirming Cause there's some place the snow'd rather be He says, Dude, this northern trend is killing meAs the snow ran away from his placeWell, I'm sure that we could see a real stormIf we could go up North to chase Oh, la, la-la, di-di-daLa-la di-di-da da-dum Now PSU makes posts like a novelistWhose forecast cuts me like a knifeAnd he's talkin' with Randy, who's had too much brandyAnd getting sick of the strife And the white rain isn't making the roads slickAs the salt trucks continue to brineAnd the models get worse with every mouse clickOn the wrong side of the rain/snow line Bring us some snow, you're the JebmanBring us some snow tonightWell, we're all in the mood for a KU treatBut the ground ain't lookin' too white It's a another bad storm for a JanuaryAnd the forecast missed by a mile'Cause its the new base state that's been making us waitTo shovel an enormous snow pile And the storm, it sounds like an epic failAnd our winter climate seems kaputAs I sit in my car and look at the radarI see PSU will still get a foot Oh, la, la-la, di-di-daLa-la di-di-da da-dum Bring us some snow, you're the JebmanBring us some snow tonightWell, we're all in the mood for a KU treatBut the ground ain't lookin' too white 8 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 POTY candidate and yes...I have pants on 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 That was god tier posting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 Real +PNA doesn't get going until Oct 16th now, and then it appears short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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