Yet Another Round of Rains(9/29-9/30) for SNE. Will it be Benign, Big, Or Biblical this go around?

[powderfreak]

  On 9/29/2023 at 8:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Hope you’re right . I am very worried about a mild dry suppressed winter 

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Mild and suppression would be an interesting combination.

[Hoth]

  On 9/29/2023 at 8:14 PM, CoastalWx said:

Although Kev stuff seems to like to redevelop along 925-850 LLJ so something to watch for 4"+. Funny little Stein slot near HVN. 

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We take.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 9/29/2023 at 8:37 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

1.91” so far here.  Wtf?    
 

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Congrats, you should be able to tack on at least another inch!

[CoastalWx]

  On 9/29/2023 at 8:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup 14.41.. only 2 of last 4 months.not 3  June was dry till that last week 

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Wunderground must be wrong. Only had 5 and change for you in august. Weird. 

[Modfan2]

Looks like heaviest is on LI or off shore, dry or stable air coming from the east looks like it’s affecting it?

[FXWX]

  On 9/29/2023 at 8:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Hope you’re right . I am very worried about a mild dry suppressed winter 

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Right now, suppression is not my concern.  

[WxWatcher007]

Little sucker holed here with 1.62” (big surprise) and at 12.20” since September 8. Incredible. July and September over a foot of rain. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

My son and his gf are up at Smugglers Notch in VT doin a disc golf weekend.  Thank goodness it is dry there 

[Modfan2]

1.84” so far and have been under the slot for a bit

[powderfreak]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:19 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

My son and his gf are up at Smugglers Notch in VT doin a disc golf weekend.  Thank goodness it is dry there 

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It’s too bad the clouds came in.  Today was just like cloudy and 50s.  Not much redeeming value, but yes dry.

Only 3” up here in September.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:24 PM, powderfreak said:

It’s too bad the clouds came in.  Today was just like cloudy and 50s.  Not much redeeming value, but yes dry.

Only 3” up here in September.

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I might wind up with that much today (2.11 and steady rain)

Edit 2.16”.   

[Brian5671]

About 3 inches here-still going and looks to be back building a bit

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

Wunderground must be wrong. Only had 5 and change for you in august. Weird. 

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That’s correct . Only 2 out of 4 months double digits 

[Damage In Tolland]

Closing in on 3” . Another half hour or so 

[MJO812]

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 9/29/2023 at 7:59 PM, tunafish said:

And the first flakes of the season at the picnic tables right behind it - that's been modeled for several days now (at least on the GFS).

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Yup ... I'm just not sure how much normalization that scenario can take before that becomes cold upslope water... It'll be close.

Not the thread for it but I ended Kevin's warmth parade in his October thread saying we got 6 ... maybe the first 7 days of October/ beyond which there is pattern modality.  The problem is, all the models at this range see the horizon like the moon coming up - huge.

[WxWatcher007]

What is the GFS doing?  

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:19 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

My son and his gf are up at Smugglers Notch in VT doin a disc golf weekend.  Thank goodness it is dry there 

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I'm hoping this shit gets outta here by Sunday morning ( like actually ... not just cuz the models say it will ).  I wanna break in my new Destroyer

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

What is the GFS doing?  

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Damaging night unfolding 

[Sn0waddict]

Getting some thunder here. Heaviest rain of the day too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4.06”

Time to gummy…

[Sn0waddict]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

What is the GFS doing?  

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RGEM/CMC actually show it too. Lol. But I would trust the meso’s with this storm.

[CoastalWx]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s correct . Only 2 out of 4 months double digits 

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You said 3

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:50 PM, CoastalWx said:

You said 3

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I did but corrected in another post 

[CoastalWx]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

What is the GFS doing?  

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It’s got that from 18z-00z mostly. Strange 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:54 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s got that from 18z-00z mostly. Strange 

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Juding by BOX rad it's onto something ...even if its off by timing ? 

This model hasn't really been handling this some some playing catch-up seems underway.

[Spanks45]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:49 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

4.06”

Time to gummy…

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just emptied the stratus, 4.15" here as of 6 pm.....

[WhiteLawns]

LMAO the sea lions have escaped their enclosure and swimming around the Central Park Zoo. Crazy day down there today.

[mreaves]

  On 9/29/2023 at 9:24 PM, powderfreak said:

It’s too bad the clouds came in.  Today was just like cloudy and 50s.  Not much redeeming value, but yes dry.

Only 3” up here in September.

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This year, dry is a redeeming value. 

[Torch Tiger]

  On 9/29/2023 at 10:23 PM, WhiteLawns said:

LMAO the sea lions have escaped their enclosure and swimming around the Central Park Zoo. Crazy day down there today.

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cool