Yet Another Round of Rains(9/29-9/30) for SNE. Will it be Benign, Big, Or Biblical this go around?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is the worst over for Brooklyn/Queens?

Yes

[CoastalWx]

Perfect overseed rains. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually so much more of the job now is explaining to decision makers what the realistic goal posts are for an event like this. So you have to be willing to put it out there when the alarm bells are ringing. The secret is that the EM community understands what it means when you offer a 90th percentile forecast.

Agreed. Good points.
 

BOX said 2-3 inches here. At 3” here already. So a bust there for them. Unless of course we get no more rain from this? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro literally locked onto this data and days ago. It kicked ass 

It will soil in it’s European g string for a big winter event. 

[wx2fish]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It was 2 days ago, but yeah... It was inconsistent before that.  It really honed more than the others on the 18z run 2 days ago.

It was too far east initially, trying to jack eastern MA. High res models did a pretty good job with the axis over the past 2 days. 

West is definitely best. Not even a tenth here so far. 

[CoastalWx]

Mesos really won this.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

It was too far east initially, trying to jack eastern MA. High res models did a pretty good job with the axis over the past 2 days. 

West is definitely best. Not even a tenth here so far. 

pretty good gradient.  You and I are not terribly far from one another and we're just now approaching an inch

[monadnocks]

37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You guys may find this shocking but ...the models are bring rain a week from Saturday

It's going to rain then in Plymouth, NH. Guarantee it. I'm going to be at a big event up there. Today was supposed to be some set up for tomorrow's event here. It's been pouring off and on. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Relentless rains now… ny border to waterbury under the gun. 
 

3.76”

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mesos really won this.

How do you see overnight unfolding?

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How do you see overnight unfolding?

Beers and bed by 7 pm?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Beers and bed by 7 pm?

Well yeah.. but 9:00

Over / under 5”? 2.18” so far 

[tunafish]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You guys may find this shocking but ...the models are bring rain a week from Saturday

And the first flakes of the season at the picnic tables right behind it - that's been modeled for several days now (at least on the GFS).

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Well yeah.. but 9:00

Over / under 5”? 2.18” so far 

One more batch and then I think heaviest is done. This thing is hard to predict. You'll likely be well over 3" and maybe near or over 4" if tonight has steady stuff. I see OCNL rains into tomorrow. Wild card might be what happens to that stuff getting SW CT. 

[TalcottWx]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mesos really won this.

We all win when you're crabby 

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well yeah.. but 9:00

Over / under 5”? 2.18” so far 

3.75

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

We all win when you're crabby 

How am I crabby? LOL. Friday is here. Thank Christ. I may be crabby tomorrow though.

[WhiteLawns]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Wild card might be what happens to that stuff getting SW CT. 

Looks to be drying out pretty rapidly

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Me either...they're breading grounds for spiders, centipedes, millipedes, and anything else with too many legs. 

Centipedes eat the spiders, they are good.

[CoastalWx]

Although Kev stuff seems to like to redevelop along 925-850 LLJ so something to watch for 4"+. Funny little Stein slot near HVN. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Centipedes eat the spiders, they are good.

What do these ones eat?

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Although Kev stuff seems to like to redevelop along 925-850 LLJ so something to watch for 4"+. Funny little Stein slot near HVN. 

maybe a little bit of subsidence going on? 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1.81” here. GFS looks wild tonight 

Agree... while heavy / excessive totals are unusually limited in coverage as one would expect, the frequency of these locally excessive events since July has been amazing.  And I do think the big storm frequency will carry over into the cold season, especially Jan/Feb.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1.91” so far here.  Wtf?    
 

[CoastalWx]

There's like 3-4" N of the MA border in wrn ORH county.

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Although Kev stuff seems to like to redevelop along 925-850 LLJ so something to watch for 4"+. Funny little Stein slot near HVN. 

It just keeps redeveloping overhead. Kind of reminds me of that Morch firehose storm . Deep easterly inflow just wrings out the precip. Up to 2.50” . I’m thinking close 5-6” when it’s all said and done. Also.. closing in on a a foot of rain this month. Last 3 out of 4 months double digits one 14”. Just insane 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Agree... while heavy / excessive totals are unusually limited in coverage as one would expect, the frequency of these locally excessive events since July has been amazing.  And I do think the big storm frequency will carry over into the cold season, especially Jan/Feb.

Hope you’re right . I am very worried about a mild dry suppressed winter 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It just keeps redeveloping overhead. Kind of reminds me of that Morch firehose storm . Deep easterly inflow just wrings out the precip. Up to 2.50” . I’m thinking close 5-6” when it’s all said and done. Also.. closing in on a a foot of rain this month. Last 3 out of 4 months double digits one 14”. Just insane 

I know how rain excites you. 
 

what was 14”? Julorch?

[MJO812]

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know how rain excites you. 
 

what was 14”? Julorch?

Yup 14.41.. only 2 of last 4 months.not 3  June was dry till that last week