Yet Another Round of Rains(9/29-9/30) for SNE. Will it be Benign, Big, Or Biblical this go around?

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

18z Euro pretty consistent 

 

18z HREF Mean

Big yikes. What a crazy stretch.

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

18z Euro pretty consistent 

 

18z HREF Mean

About 3.5”+  here on those.  Thanks for posting Don.  Interesting set up for tomorrow/tomorrow night that’s for sure. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just annoying for this area.  No big flooder but oof at another crappy weekend. Hopefully Sunday is salvageable 

[Sn0waddict]

0Z HRRR definitely a step down from 18z in regards to total precip.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro is by far the wettest guidance here. Toss

[dryslot]

This resembles a Norlun, Good luck on its placement until 12 hrs or so.

[Spaizzo]

Rains starting in NY areas it appears. Does this line up with previous guidance? Worried about our basement flooding with all this rain after the past week


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[TauntonBlizzard2013]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This resembles a Norlun, Good luck on its placement until 12 hrs or so.

Pretty much. My guess is there is going to be very little outside of a small area, but that’s just my opinion.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

Rains starting in NY areas it appears. Does this line up with previous guidance? Worried about our basement flooding with all this rain after the past week


.

Yes. Unfortunately. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty much. My guess is there is going to be very little outside of a small area, but that’s just my opinion.

The modeled max amounts are noteworthy. Someone gets a legit flood.  To get the models to print out these QPF signals… someone is getting smoked.  It could be relatively localized.

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty much. My guess is there is going to be very little outside of a small area, but that’s just my opinion.

Yes, It will be contained in a narrow area.

[WxWatcher007]

GFS still playing catch up I guess. Much broader area of higher rainfall in CT. 

[WxWatcher007]

Zoomed in. The trend gif is something else  

WPC has a really nice discussion on the overall setup. Someone is likely to be in trouble early tomorrow if this sets up as expected. 

 

HREF Mean

[WinterWolf]

GFS is over 4” here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Poor GFS. Euro took it every model to the shed , locked the door, and still hasn’t come out . 
 

Already .35 here in short order 

[Modfan2]

.09 early here in Eastern CT

[CoastalWx]

Seems Ike we don’t have that real nasty flooder look. We’ll see. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Poor GFS. Euro took it every model to the shed , locked the door, and still hasn’t come out . 
 

Already .35 here in short order 

On the other hand, euro face plants on these ridiculous solutions it had for much of the area. I’m not getting 6” of rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

On the other hand, euro face plants on these ridiculous solutions it had for much of the area. I’m not getting 6” of rain.

When the dry , suppressed pattern kicks in Dec- Feb.. we’ll be left wondering what if….

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2.0” this area had some training overnight.  looks like 12 hours plus left of scattered bouts of heavy downpours should get the widespread 3-6” in western ct at least. 

[WinterWolf]

Walt Drag thinks from NYC over to LI, and north to the Hudson and over to the CT River is the big area of rain with 6” plus easily attainable.  That From NYC forum. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

51 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

2.0” this area had some training overnight.  looks like 12 hours plus left of scattered bouts of heavy downpours should get the widespread 3-6” in western ct at least. 

1.25” here. Should hit low end warning amounts no problem…

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Walt Drag thinks from NYC over to LI, and north to the Hudson and over to the CT River is the big area of rain with 6” plus easily attainable.  That From NYC forum. 

I think a widespread three to about 5 inches attainable in some spots will have over 6 inches. But my point earlier was those ridiculous amounts that were modeled over 10 inches probably won’t happen luckily.

[Snowcrazed71]

.79" here now.  Crazy... but I'm surprised they haven't added Hartford county to that flood watch?

[kdxken]

I thought the rain wasn't supposed to start until late today. Judging by the radar that's not the case.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

.79" here now.  Crazy... but I'm surprised they haven't added Hartford county to that flood watch?

They will soon imo. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think a widespread three to about 5 inches attainable in some spots will have over 6 inches. But my point earlier was those ridiculous amounts that were modeled over 10 inches probably won’t happen luckily.

Agreed. Maybe in NYC Metro area somebody hits 8 plus. Some areas there are already at 4 plus inches it sounds like. 

[Cold Miser]

I don't recall this much excitement over rain.  Even a separate thread for a rain event.  
The site may have to activate storm mode soon. 

I suppose we may as well get used to it. Rain will be the new year round norm to track. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Cold Miser said:

I don't recall this much excitement over rain.  Even a separate thread for a rain event.  
The site may have to activate storm mode soon. 

I suppose we may as well get used to it. Rain will be the new year round norm to track. 

I never got the rain excitement. Although I suppose if it’s like over 6” that is Phil worthy. I only care for my lawn and I’m happy with incremental amounts when it comes to that. Just no stein like last summer. 
 

Looks like it won’t be much here but enough to eff up Saturday. Yay.

[Cold Miser]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I never got the rain excitement. Although I suppose if it’s like over 6” that is Phil worthy. I only care for my lawn and I’m happy with incremental amounts when it comes to that. Just no stein like last summer. 
 

Looks like it won’t be much here but enough to eff up Saturday. Yay.

I'm praying for your lawn to get the drink it deserves...but cancel those prayers if it is going to drown. I don't want to waste a prayer.  

We worked hard  for this rain so hopefully it pays out in dividends.