Yet Another Round of Rains(9/29-9/30) for SNE. Will it be Benign, Big, Or Biblical this go around?

[binbisso]

[kdxken]

[Mr. Windcredible!]

We were supposed to leave first thing in the morning tomorrow to go to PA to visit my son at college. Just called an audible about an hour ago and let my wife know we needed to leave tonight or risk driving thru flooding rains or canceling altogether, neither of which was going to be an acceptable option. So plan is to make it to her sister's in W NJ tonight to get us to the other side of this incoming firehose.

 

2 minutes ago, binbisso said:

This would be awful tomorrow morning for the am commute. Latest hrrr. This is only through 9 AM tomorrow morning.

 

[CoastalWx]

What happens if we get a foot of rain for Brooklyn and Queens?

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What happens if we get a foot of rain for Brooklyn and Queens?

They’ll be underwater.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thanks Wolfie. Hope you have this much juju when starting a winter threat.

[CoastalWx]

Pure unadulterated Phil on HRRR for NYC and just east. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thanks Wolfie. Hope you have this much juju when starting a winter threat.

Ya exactly Luke.  Probably not lol. My first thread..so beginners fortune I’m sure. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Pure unadulterated Phil on HRRR for NYC and just east. 

Post for us peeps up in CT please Scott. 

[nutmegfriar]

I'm looking forward to the picture of the shark swimming down the West Side Highway.

[Cyclone-68]

KBOX going kind of conservative with the rainfall amounts, no?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Post for us peeps up in CT please Scott. 

[weatherwiz]

I can't believe the rainfall totals on the HRRR. I thought perhaps the HRRR would back off some at 18z but nope. Certainly quite a bit of convective enhancement going on across a narrow swath. Looks like a decent little instability axis with some decent elevated CAPE. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks Scott…man that’s a beat down. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Is that final location or can you see it shift NE like norluns do?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is that final location or can you see it shift NE like norluns do?

We better hope not. That’s already 5+ inches here. We don’t need any more than that. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

We better hope not. That’s already 5+ inches here. We don’t need any more than that. 

So much seed down . Even 2-4” here wa too much. That’ll put me near over a foot this month 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is that final location or can you see it shift NE like norluns do?

HRRR looks more like euro now with it going nuts with inv trough and then more of a ccb look. I could buy that. As far as where it sets up, I can't see it shifting that far NE. Maybe SW CT? 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So much seed down . Even 2-4” here wa too much. That’ll put me near over a foot this month 

Ya that’s a lot of Water. 

[OceanStWx]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What happens if we get a foot of rain for Brooklyn and Queens?

[Spaizzo]

What happens if we get a foot of rain for Brooklyn and Queens?

Rafts and life preservers??


.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR looks more like euro now with it going nuts with inv trough and then more of a ccb look. I could buy that. As far as where it sets up, I can't see it shifting that far NE. Maybe SW CT? 

That's the thing, if you can do kind of a Norlun-like setup with tropical rain you can really run up the totals.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

That's the thing, if you can do kind of a Norlun-like setup with tropical rain you can really run up the totals.

And the airmass aloft is certainly allowing that air to accelerate up once it does converge. We pour.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Box not impressed out east…. Going to be wet west 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

NAM and 3KM . Will be interesting to see where it sets up .. nyc metro certainly looks like ground zero 

[kdxken]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So much seed down . Even 2-4” here wa too much. That’ll put me near over a foot this month 

Enjoy your new driveway. It will be across the street on the neighbor's lawn.

[kdxken]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Box not impressed out east…. Going to be wet west 

Bummer.

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully those big totals come to fruition!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

You don’t want anything to do with this. I was in Manhattan during ida, every stair case on my campus was a waterfall. Every basement of every building flooded. For the sake of lives and property I hope this is a major model fail. 

[WxWatcher007]

WPC update—mod risk SW CT into NYC metro as expected.

12z suite of guidance has narrowed the corridor of expected heavy 
rainfall that will transpire thanks to a prominent easterly fetch 
event expected on the northern periphery of an inverted trof in-of 
the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. The signal for a prolonged heavy 
rain event has increased markedly over the past 24 hrs with the 
current deterministic and ensemble mean guidance now pinpointing a 
swath of 2-4+" rainfall footprint across the NNJ and the adjacent 
NYC metro and southern NY state towards Poughkeepsie. 12z HREF 
mean is approaching 3-4" for just the NYC metro which would cause 
considerable problems due to urban sprawl and inability for 
rainfall to penetrate the impervious surface. 12z HREF 
probabilities are also depicting an upper threshold event within 
some of the probabilistic signatures. 3"/3 hr rainfall probability 
is exceeding 70% for the NYC area up through the exo-burbs outside 
the metroplex. 1-2"/hr rainfall rate probabilities are also into 
the 70-80% territory which is typically found in the most robust 
setups, usually within a tropical moisture field which is what is 
expected given the enhanced IVT signatures on global deterministic 
correlating well with the axis of heavy rainfall. GFS/ECMWF PWAT 
anomalies are both approaching the 1.5-2 deviations above normal 
range focused in the corridor of higher forecast QPF. Instability 
will be lackluster for the most part, but some theta-E advection 
into coastal NJ, NYC, and Long Island will pose a lower-end 
convective threat across the region which would only exacerbate 
flash flooding concerns. 

The biggest change outside the magnitude of rainfall is the 
propagation of the main QPF field further inland thanks to the 
advection of low-mid level moisture being forecast due to very 
anomalous U-vector wind fields generated from our inverted trof. 
Enhancement on the NW side of the precip field will be possible 
Friday morning and early afternoon as the shortwave trough over 
the Great Lakes pivots into the northern Mid-Atlantic and closes 
off across northern PA. This would allow for a more dynamic 
signature within the northern and eastern fringes of the 
upper-level circulation creating localized banding structures over 
the terrain as depicted by a few hi-res deterministic. This is one 
of the reasons we see secondary and tertiary maxes within the 
general QPF forecast from deterministic as banding structures will 
be found during the event evolution. Local maxes between 6-8" will 
be plausible across the outlined Moderate area and even within the 
confines of the SLGT risk. This has evolved into a higher impact 
potential and will be monitored closely for future updates to the 
orientation of the MOD risk with coordination from the local FO's 
involved.