Yet Another Round of Rains(9/29-9/30) for SNE. Will it be Benign, Big, Or Biblical this go around?

[WinterWolf]

Interesting set up coming together.  Post your thoughts here gentlemen. 

[WxWatcher007]

In striking distance of topping July. Sitting at 10.59” for the month currently.

I kind of think high res is over amped, but a solid 1-3 over the region seems reasonable to me. 

[Ginx snewx]

NYC Hurricane IDA redeux?

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

NYC Hurricane IDA redeux?

Very similar Steve. 

[CoastalWx]

I think a narrow area will get smoked. For sure. I'd say somewhere between EWR-HFD down to HVN and then back towards NYC.  First guess. 

 

This time of year has seen some of the most prolific rain events I can recall. The combination of still high PWATs to be tapped, but now increased synoptic forcing, can lead to big rain events. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

NYC Hurricane IDA redeux?

Geez, that was a mess down here.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Interesting set up coming together.  Post your thoughts here gentlemen. 

I was thinking maybe if we just ignore it, it will go away.

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think a narrow area will get smoked. For sure. I'd say somewhere between EWR-HFD down to HVN and then back towards NYC.  First guess. 

 

This time of year has seen some of the most prolific rain events I can recall. The combination of still high PWATs to be tapped, but now increased synoptic forcing, can lead to big rain events. 

Agree but how big is big. I can see an upward bound of 5-7?

If places are going above that it’ll get really ugly, especially if that’s over the big September rain zone. 

[OceanStWx]

Well 12z HREF really didn't back down, and in fact ramped up the threat I would say. Now seeing areas of 7-10 inches in 6 hours for the max product.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree but how big is big. I can see an upward bound of 5-7?

If places are going above that it’ll get really ugly, especially if that’s over the big September rain zone. 

Good question about how big is big. But some of the hi res (even hi res ensembles) are eye opening. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Well 12z HREF really didn't back down, and in fact ramped up the threat I would say. Now seeing areas of 7-10 inches in 6 hours for the max product.

Yep.

[WxWatcher007]

Both the 48hr mean and PMM are ugly.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well 12z HREF really didn't back down, and in fact ramped up the threat I would say. Now seeing areas of 7-10 inches in 6 hours for the max product.

Same location as before? 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Both the 48hr mean and PMM are ugly.

What are PMM Don? 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What are PMM Don? 

Probability matched mean

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks like we might come out of this relatively dry out this way. Focused has definitely shifted west.

no offense, but I hope it stays there, would be nice to salvage a respectable weekend.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like we might come out of this relatively dry out this way. Focused has definitely shifted west.

no offense, but I hope it stays there, would be nice to salvage a respectable weekend.

Stein always saves you. 

[WxWatcher007]

That’s just through 12z Saturday 

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Same location as before? 

Hair east, but similar enough.

[WxWatcher007]

[Snowcrazed71]

Let's remember How the different models looked today and by the time the storm in Saturday. I think we'll be able to know who seems to have the upper hand by then

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Stein always saves you. 

Hardly saved on the euro lol

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Unfortunately I can’t see those?  They won’t load. 

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Unfortunately I can’t see those?  They won’t load. 

That’s odd. It looks fine on my end. Do you see it now?

[WinterWolf]

Nope…still can’t. No biggy. 

[Mr. Windcredible!]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nope…still can’t. No biggy. 

I think it's just you. It's just the Euro Op totals. No crazy 6-12" totals...but a widespread 2-4" for most of the region.

[Spaizzo]

Too soon to ask when the heaviest is supposed to be here? Talking western half of ct we have a game in Wolcott tomorrow lol


.

[Damage In Tolland]

The bullseye is going to end up right over HFD to RI border. Ugh 

[SJonesWX]

just keep this crap south of the MA/NH border please.

[binbisso]

This would be awful tomorrow morning for the am commute. Latest hrrr. This is only through 9 AM tomorrow morning.