Another big Sept rain event between roughly midnight Friday morning and midnight Sunday morning (bulk 9/29-30/2023)

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 9/28/2023 at 9:56 PM, Brian5671 said:

office worker will be mostly at home given it's a friday so that will help

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I’m not looking forward to it, I have to be at work to deal with any potential flooding too. Almost feel like I should just stay, and sleep In my shop. Where ever the heaviest axis sets up, could be a 100 year flood type event with all the resulting damage. 

[NJwx85]

https://x.com/nynjpaweather/status/1707512095112081411?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

[Rmine1]

  On 9/28/2023 at 10:00 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m not looking forward to it, I have to be at work to deal with any potential flooding too. Almost feel like I should just stay, and sleep In my shop. Where ever the heaviest axis sets up, could be a 100 year flood type event with all the resulting damage. 

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Aug ‘14 is forever burned into my brain. Bay Shore train station parking lot was a lake

[steve392]

Just had pouring rain here in little ferry, nj.  Work tomorrow should be interesting. 

[Stormlover74]

  On 9/28/2023 at 10:08 PM, NJwx85 said:

https://x.com/nynjpaweather/status/1707512095112081411?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

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Not sure I understand the wind damage part 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Already pouring in Manhattan, not a good sign. 

[mob1]

  On 9/28/2023 at 10:20 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Already pouring in Manhattan, not a good sign. 

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Some areas south of Tom's River are closing in on 2 inches but models had almost nothing for them to this point. It doesn't necessarily mean anything for the main show later tonight into tomorrow, but it shows how hard these mesoscale features are to pin down. 

[Intensewind002]

Radar estimates already show a spot close to 2” off the coast

[Rmine1]

Godspeed to those unfortunate enough to be in the “jackpot” zone 

[BoulderWX]

Highest amount on radar that I can find is 1.70” in Tuckerton 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 9/28/2023 at 10:10 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Not sure I understand the wind damage part 

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Yeah this isn’t a big wind event. Though with 5” of rain even a 40mph gust can knock down a few weak trees. This is really going to be about (the Bronx river ppkwy is under 8’ of water” 

[jm1220]

  On 9/28/2023 at 10:08 PM, Rmine1 said:

Aug ‘14 is forever burned into my brain. Bay Shore train station parking lot was a lake

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Someone might get that with a setup like this. My hunch is it'll be west of us but we'll get plenty too. 

[forkyfork]

hrrr has slowly been inching west

[Rmine1]

  On 9/28/2023 at 10:50 PM, jm1220 said:

Someone might get that with a setup like this. My hunch is it'll be west of us but we'll get plenty too. 

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Not sure if you know the brightwaters area, but there was a raging river running from the lakes to the Brightwaters canal. Probably 2 feet deep. Only thing that topped it was Sandy surge. 

[mob1]

  On 9/28/2023 at 10:41 PM, BoulderWX said:

Highest amount on radar that I can find is 1.70” in Tuckerton 

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Let's compare that to what the 18Z HRRR had at this point.

[Intensewind002]

  On 9/28/2023 at 10:50 PM, jm1220 said:

Someone might get that with a setup like this. My hunch is it'll be west of us but we'll get plenty too. 

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It looks like something similar to what happened during Ida’s remnants might occur, at least when it comes to the rainfall jackpot, just with a more N-S axis. Hopefully the flooding isn’t as bad…

[steve392]

Pe sized hail reported by yankee stadium earlier. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

  On 9/28/2023 at 10:52 PM, forkyfork said:

hrrr has slowly been inching west

Good


.

[Stormlover74]

  On 9/28/2023 at 11:17 PM, WestBabylonWeather said:

Good


.

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Now it went back east. Probably going to keep jumping around 

[Rmine1]

Aug ‘14. Much different setup, which I think favors NYC/NNJ/LHV

[Allsnow]

  On 9/28/2023 at 11:19 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Now it went back east. Probably going to keep jumping around 

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Really? Looks pretty dangerous for NE NJ  and nyc on radar 

[psv88]

Wagons west. Stay safe Jersey 

[Stormlover74]

  On 9/28/2023 at 11:23 PM, Allsnow said:

Really? Looks pretty dangerous for NE NJ  and nyc on radar 

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Through 10z it was east then it went west

[forkyfork]

  On 9/28/2023 at 11:25 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Through 10z it was east then it went west

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this run crushes us

[Allsnow]

  On 9/28/2023 at 11:29 PM, forkyfork said:

this run crushes us

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Between 6am and 9am…horrible timing 

[forkyfork]

  On 9/28/2023 at 11:32 PM, Allsnow said:

Between 6am and 9am…horrible timing 

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it's going well past 9 am

[jm1220]

I wouldn’t focus on the run to run shifting on any model, I’d just focus on the radar. It’ll be a nowcast situation. These setups tend to favor NJ and the city but it really could be anywhere and the models all have the heavy rain axis pivoting around, so one swath will get the most in the AM but eventually everyone gets the hose. 

[SI Mailman]

I’m gonna need a canoe to deliver my route tomorrow. I delivered in the Ida rains as they were cranking up and it was one of my worst experiences ever. If the bulk can be done by noon tomorrow, I’d appreciate it

[Rmine1]

First batch rolling in offshore is getting juicier by the minute. 

[jm1220]

  On 9/28/2023 at 11:47 PM, Rmine1 said:

First batch rolling in offshore is getting juicier by the minute. 

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And behind that the radar’s lighting up too. We’ll have more than plenty by this time tomorrow.