Another big Sept rain event between roughly midnight Friday morning and midnight Sunday morning (bulk 9/29-30/2023)

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It can end up anywhere but the point is someone's going to get it

we'll have a good idea when the first showers start developing later tonight

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Understood-I hope it moves out to sea

Unlikely-someone from NYC to RI/SE MA is going to take it on the chin here

[NJwx85]

Still hanging around on Saturday.

[jm1220]

25 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I pray that this precipitation moves out to the ocean and people and their property are spared this type of rain

On these models other than GFS, someone seems to get absolutely blasted. It seems like where it starts out gets blasted the worst but over the day it pivots east, so even on the NAM where NJ/upstate get the heaviest amounts, we all get 2-3” as the rain pivots east. I’m hoping the GFS has a clue. 

[495weatherguy]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

On these models other than GFS, someone seems to get absolutely blasted. It seems like where it starts out gets blasted the worst but over the day it pivots east, so even on the NAM where NJ/upstate get the heaviest amounts, we all get 2-3” as the rain pivots east. I’m hoping the GFS has a clue. 

2-3" is suboptimal for sure, but its way better than half a foot of rain

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

On these models other than GFS, someone seems to get absolutely blasted. It seems like where it starts out gets blasted the worst but over the day it pivots east, so even on the NAM where NJ/upstate get the heaviest amounts, we all get 2-3” as the rain pivots east. I’m hoping the GFS has a clue. 

Not sure I'd go with globals here...it's a small scale system IVT trough, meso's likely leading the way.   I believe they did the same on Ida...globals missed the historics rains there

[uofmiami]

14 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

100% agree with you-No one needs this.  That being said, how many times has the "bullseye" been correct on these types of storms?

Agreed.  It could 50-100 miles east or west, just have to watch radar as the storm unfolds.  Hopefully it happens out to sea, so no one has to deal with the flooding that would accompany those totals.

[jm1220]

I would think flash flood watches should go up this afternoon given the trends to these huge rain amounts. Generally from PHL to BOS is probably a good bet. 

[495weatherguy]

3 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Agreed.  It could 50-100 miles east or west, just have to watch radar as the storm unfolds.  Hopefully it happens out to sea, so no one has to deal with the flooding that would accompany those totals.

Amen!

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

On these models other than GFS, someone seems to get absolutely blasted. It seems like where it starts out gets blasted the worst but over the day it pivots east, so even on the NAM where NJ/upstate get the heaviest amounts, we all get 2-3” as the rain pivots east. I’m hoping the GFS has a clue. 

The GFS lacks the resolution. Definitely would lean hard on the meso's with this.

This is pretty insane.

 

[Brian5671]

PWATS close to 2 inches

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Amen!

The rgem would be the best case scenario. 1 to 3" but heaviest is offshore

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The rgem would be the best case scenario. 1 to 3" but heaviest is offshore

Yep, hoping for that scenario. 

The other hi res models like the ARW are also very wet, 5”+ for most. 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The rgem would be the best case scenario. 1 to 3" but heaviest is offshore

Lingering into Saturday now 

[forkyfork]

the rgem isn't a CAM so i wouldn't trust its max amounts in this situation 

[Allsnow]

[the_other_guy]

guys, I don’t mean to discount some of these models, but other than a severe thunderstorm situation that causes massive flash flooding, the chances of an area wide 6 inch event are ridiculous.

given the saturated ground,  even 2 to 3 inches is enough to cause issues.

 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, hoping for that scenario. 

The other hi res models like the ARW are also very wet, 5”+ for most. 

[Snowlover11]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

i couldn’t imagine what the sawmill, bronx river would look like if that verified

[Rtd208]

Flood Watch just issued here from late tonight thru late Friday night. 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

guys, I don’t mean to discount some of these models, but other than a severe thunderstorm situation that causes massive flash flooding, the chances of an area wide 6 inch event are ridiculous.

given the saturated ground,  even 2 to 3 inches is enough to cause issues.

 

This is about so much more than QPF totals. 

SREF probabilities are off the charts.

[Allsnow]

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Flood Watch just issued here from late tonight thru late Friday night. 

2-4 with possible 6+ woah 

 

@winterwarlock

 

Philadelphia, PA
11:15 AM EDT Thu, Sep 28, 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey, including the following areas, in central New Jersey... Eastern Monmouth, Mercer, and Western Monmouth. In northern New Jersey...Middlesex, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren. In northwest New Jersey...Hunterdon. In southern New Jersey...Coastal Ocean and Ocean.

* WHEN...From late tonight through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Periods of heavy rain are likely beginning late tonight, continuing through Friday Night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts of 6 inches or more possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

[NJwx85]

[jm1220]

Not sure how reliable the RRFS (Pivotal says it’s an experimental model) is, but add that to the soakers at 12z. 

[NJwx85]

While the GFS lacks the resolution to show the details, it has the same general idea.

[Allsnow]

I would expect to see the euro shift south with its rain axis at 12z after seeing the rest of the guidance 

[Allsnow]

 

[jm1220]

New UKMET has 10.5” rain at Islip, looks just like Aug 2014 again with amounts/distribution. Upton should really be issuing watches soon. 

[495weatherguy]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

New UKMET has 10.5” rain at Islip, looks just like Aug 2014 again with amounts/distribution. Upton should really be issuing watches soon. 

Earlier you mentioned the big totals of rain were around Farmingdale/Bethpage; now it appears as though the "bullseye" is bit further east-Islip.  Would it be reasonable to assume that the "bullseye" can continue to move east and ultimately off shore?