Another big Sept rain event between roughly midnight Friday morning and midnight Sunday morning (bulk 9/29-30/2023)

[Allsnow]

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Reminds me of a cold season Norlun trough when we usually don’t know where it sets up until nowcast time. 

Exactly. This will bounce around until game time 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Exactly. This will bounce around until game time 

The nam's kind of all alone. It will likely shift east soon or its going to be right but I have a feeling this is a LI CT special 

[BlizzLuv]

30 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I'll add my 2c at 5P...  suggest mowing completed today. You may not like your soggy ground even on a rain free Sunday I84 corridor southward NJ-seNYS-SNE-LI. My guess is that NWS is waiting on any FFA because the GEFS/SREF/NAEFS are much more conservative than the GEPS-EPS 2-4" event and as you've all posted the iso 7" on highly resolved mesoscale guidance.  Also, NWS may be holding off due to no ensemble guidance showing minor flooding which is because these river forecasts use the ensemble output which seems to me wayyy too low. 

 

More at 5P after mowing.

 

Did my mowing last night - was pretty long after nearly 2 weeks. Last weekend's rain put me behind. Now need the Fall fertilizer.

[hudsonvalley21]

Upton’s QPF map.

 

[jconsor]

Thread on the flooding potential:
 

 

[Stormlover74]

Still going. Over a foot Nassau suffolk border

 

[jm1220]

HRRR looks like it’s going a little east from 6z but that kind of rain would rival Aug 2011 and 2014 here. Hoping that’s way overdone. 

Edit-HRRR nails the city later on in the run. Would be an Ida type rain event except a little further east. Hoping it’s wrong. 

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

HRRR looks like it’s going a little east from 6z but that kind of rain would rival Aug 2011 and 2014 here. Hoping that’s way overdone. 

Edit-HRRR nails the city later on in the run. Would be an Ida type rain event except a little further east. Hoping it’s wrong. 

[NJwx85]

The 12z HRRR seems to be focusing the heaviest axis of rain East of the Hudson.

[495weatherguy]

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still going. Over a foot Nassau suffolk border

 

My goodness I hope this is incorrect.  No one needs that much rain.  Not good for anyone 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

My goodness I hope this is incorrect.  No one needs that much rain.  Not good for anyone 

It's likely that someone sees double digits just a question of where

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z HRRR seems to be focusing the heaviest axis of rain East of the Hudson.

IVT trough almost always ends up NE-could even end up further east with a RI/MA jackpot like the Euro has

[Neblizzard]

The 12z NAM focuses the heaviest rain from NYC up thru Northern NJ and the Hudson Valley. 

[Stormlover74]

Last 4 nam runs. Definitely shifting the heaviest axis

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That shows 14-16” of rain over Bethpage/Farmingdale. That’s just insane. 

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Last 4 nam runs. Definitely shifting the heaviest axis

more starts firing up in snj though

[495weatherguy]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That shows 14-16” of rain over Bethpage/Farmingdale. That’s just insane. 

I pray that this precipitation moves out to the ocean and people and their property are spared this type of rain

[NJwx85]

3k NAM for tomorrow morning

[NJwx85]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

more starts firing up in snj though

[NJwx85]

[uofmiami]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No thank you. I’ll pray that’s wrong, otherwise it’s ark building time. 

[Allsnow]

Nams not backing down 

[495weatherguy]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

No thank you. I’ll pray that’s wrong, otherwise it’s ark building time. 

100% agree with you-No one needs this.  That being said, how many times has the "bullseye" been correct on these types of storms?

[forkyfork]

i have no idea where the band is going to set up

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

100% agree with you-No one needs this.  That being said, how many times has the "bullseye" been correct on these types of storms?

It can end up anywhere but the point is someone's going to get it

[Snowlover11]

im surprised we have no flood watches.  even if its a narrow area they can always take them down.

[Brian5671]

Even half these amts will be bad given the saturated ground and amts of 4-6 inches in a fairly short period of time

[495weatherguy]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It can end up anywhere but the point is someone's going to get it

Understood-I hope it moves out to sea

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It can end up anywhere but the point is someone's going to get it

we'll have a good idea when the first showers start developing later tonight