Another big Sept rain event between roughly midnight Friday morning and midnight Sunday morning (bulk 9/29-30/2023)

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0z HRRR has us right near the edge of the very heavy stuff. Go west into Somerset County and amounts drop off to very little. Extremely close call for our area. 

I’m in eastern morris county. Could see .20 or 3” - neither would surprise me. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

The blob weakened as it got into my area and favored areas west. Perhaps a sign of things to come.


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[psv88]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

The blob weakened as it got into my area and favored areas west. Perhaps a sign of things to come.


.

Yup. The grass seed is safe. Light rain now ☔️ 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

HRRRR down about 10 inches from 18z

this is still going to cause major issues

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is still going to cause major issues

Not as bad as this would have

[cannoliman42]

Absolutely pouring in Queens right now. Not sure any of the models had heavy rain starting this early (including the most recent HRRR). Goes to show how tough a time these models are having mapping these bands. 

[forkyfork]

the hrrr won't change after this run

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We'll see if it keeps shifting east and what the nam does but yeah I could see us getting 5 or .5

You didn’t get rain yet tonight? 

[Stormlover74]

Nam has the sharp cutoff further west but the heaviest in the same general area. Bullseye in the Hudson valley

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Allsnow said:

You didn’t get rain yet tonight? 

Yeah but it just stopped

[Allsnow]

I think it’s obvious now that the biggest rain totals (3 or 10) will be over the nyc metro 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

The blob weakened as it got into my area and favored areas west. Perhaps a sign of things to come.


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HRRR still has 3-6" across the island, more west. The initial heavy rain will be west of us but during the day tomorrow it evolves into more of a comma shape and translates east. I'm glad it's walking away from the Aug 2014 and 2011 type insane totals, that would be major to catastrophic. 

[Intensewind002]

First heavy shower of this event is done, picked up a quick 0.18”

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam has the sharp cutoff further west but the heaviest in the same general area. Bullseye in the Hudson valley

Nope, regular NAM (not the 3k) has it over LI. By tomorrow 0z there's 6" IMBY and still pouring. Our time with it will probably be late morning/afternoon. 3K looks different from the regular NAM again.

I wouldn't say we're out of the woods on LI for very heavy rain totals. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Lighting currently in western Nassau, let’s se where this sets up.

[jm1220]

FV3 (I think it's a NAM and GFS blend hi-res model) also has the bullseye over LI. 4-7" from NYC to Manorville by 6z Sat.

[Allsnow]

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. Me, PSV, Rmine, WestBabylonWeather etc are in deep doo doo if that happens. And it's still raining after this.

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Nope, regular NAM (not the 3k) has it over LI. By tomorrow 0z there's 6" IMBY and still pouring. Our time with it will probably be late morning/afternoon. 3K looks different from the regular NAM again.

I wouldn't say we're out of the woods on LI for very heavy rain totals. 

I see the 3km is still going with the idea of more of a run of the mill heavy rain event. 1 to 3 inches for most people. Hopefully that along with the HRRR backing down is a sign that the tri-state is gonna avoid an epic flood event. Still a major event, and obviously and we can't discount the possibility of something more dramatic. 

[steve392]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Just this through noon

Dam, that's right over my center.  Gunna be a long day. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Yep. Me, PSV, Rmine, WestBabylonWeather etc are in deep doo doo if that happens. And it's still raining after this.

Not. Good.


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[Rtd208]

BUST

Somebody had to say it.

[TJW014]

Driving along the barrier island in northern Ocean County. Coming down pretty hard with this new band pushing ashore. One lightning flash and a low rumble of thunder too. Windy, 30-35 mph gusts. Side streets along Barnegat Bay are experiencing minor tidal flooding along the shoulders and storm drains.

[jm1220]

Already estimating over 2" of rain in the Rockaways pushing toward JFK.

[Snowlover11]

for now east of the city, down thru jfk getting hammered.

[Stormlover74]

Rgem city east special

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem city east special

Who the heck knows for our area. As you said we could get a half inch or a few inches. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Who the heck knows for our area. As you said we could get a half inch or a few inches. 

I think it's clear the city and LI are going to get hammered 

[Stormlover74]

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think it's clear the city and LI are going to get hammered 

Yep I agree. For our area a little west of the city, it's a big question mark.