Another big Sept rain event between roughly midnight Friday morning and midnight Sunday morning (bulk 9/29-30/2023)

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Definitely a bad time to take a poop. 

Yyyyep lol. I don’t think the water system was entirely fixed after Sandy either. That literally drove the sewage up through the pipes along with the 8 foot surge. 

[Cfa]

Bone dry for the last 5 hours, total still 0.85”.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I don’t care how good your seal is, when water is coming out of your outlet things aren’t going well.

That’s the scary thing about flooding. The water will always find a way in. I can remember getting flooded out of my basement apartment in LB during the remnants of Agnes back in 72.

[lee59]

Continued deluge here, now over 4 inches of rain. Rain rate about 3-4 inches an hour.

[jm1220]

Just now, Cfa said:

Bone dry for the last 5 hours, total still 0.85”.

Pouring here finally with the firehose. And it’s still not making quick headway east. 

[Allsnow]

Short range Models did a great job at placing the heaviest rain over nyc.  Incredible performance 

[lee59]

4.51 and counting

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pouring here finally with the firehose. And it’s still not making quick headway east. 

Same. Not expecting more than another 1-2 inches. Will bring me to 3-4” total. Models nailed it 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Same. Not expecting more than another 1-2 inches. Will bring me to 3-4” total. Models nailed it 

It’s absolutely pouring here and I’m over 2” now per radar. Heavy rain goes back to around Westbury and it’s not moving fast. We won’t get what the city/Nassau got but we’re in for a rough couple hours. 

[mikem81]

Im worried that here in SW nassau that band just south of JFK might strengthen and come hit us. We are all over 5 inches here since midnight. Some areas closer to 8-9 near JFK

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Short range Models did a great job at placing the heaviest rain over nyc.  Incredible performance 

The HRRR and HREF did a fantastic job.

[Rtd208]

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The HRRR and HREF did a fantastic job.

I mean, it is all relative. Didnt some of these models have a widespread 10 inch plus? you can basically wipe your behind with that number.

 

If 10 inches meant “you will get a lot” then they did a great job. But in actual numbers the numbers we were looking at were ridiculously inflated. Thank god for that btw

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Short range Models did a great job at placing the heaviest rain over nyc.  Incredible performance 

I am very happy to be missing out on these floods out here. 

Sounds like a terrible situation for many though

[Brian5671]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

I mean, it is all relative. Didnt some of these models have a widespread 10 inch plus? you can basically wipe your behind with that number.

 

If 10 inches meant “you will get a lot” then they did a great job. But in actual numbers the numbers we were looking at were ridiculously inflated. Thank god for that btw

I didn't see widespread 10 inches.   HRRR Long range yesterday had the big totals over NYC and western LI which is exactly what happened...

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I mean, it is all relative. Didnt some of these models have a widespread 10 inch plus? you can basically wipe your behind with that number.

 

If 10 inches meant “you will get a lot” then they did a great job. But in actual numbers the numbers we were looking at were ridiculously inflated. Thank god for that btw

There are plenty of spots that have reported 7-8 inches so far and it's not over yet. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I mean, it is all relative. Didnt some of these models have a widespread 10 inch plus? you can basically wipe your behind with that number.

 

If 10 inches meant “you will get a lot” then they did a great job. But in actual numbers the numbers we were looking at were ridiculously inflated. Thank god for that btw

HRRR did go too crazy yesterday but 8-9” is nothing to sneeze at. The models nailed the potential and general location of the greatest threat. 

[uofmiami]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s absolutely pouring here and I’m over 2” now per radar. Heavy rain goes back to around Westbury and it’s not moving fast. We won’t get what the city/Nassau got but we’re in for a rough couple hours. 

My backyard is a lake & my front side yard has a moat with my neighbor.  4.31" now and pouring in Syosset.

[Cfa]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pouring here finally with the firehose. And it’s still not making quick headway east. 

It’ll make it here by 8 PM at the rate it’s going.

[hudsonvalley21]

0.01” in the last 3 hours with 1.36” in the bucket so far here. 

[Santa Claus]

all considered the models did great

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I mean, it is all relative. Didnt some of these models have a widespread 10 inch plus? you can basically wipe your behind with that number.

 

If 10 inches meant “you will get a lot” then they did a great job. But in actual numbers the numbers we were looking at were ridiculously inflated. Thank god for that btw

First, the mean placement around NYC was spot on. Second, they have two maps. The ensemble mean was a little on the low side. And the max potential a little on high side. So highest amounts so  far over 8” is a pretty good forecast when you blend the mean and max. Plus the radar estimates have been on the low side and there could be some areas that have close to 10.00”. 

[STORMANLI]

Hicksville 4.82" 4pm

[SI Mailman]

I’ve only had about .02 inches since 11 am, so I’ve been able to deliver without a canoe today. 2.09 inch storm total so far.

[uofmiami]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

I’ve only had about .02 inches since 11 am, so I’ve been able to deliver without a canoe today. 2.09 inch storm total so far.

Amazing what could have been if the heaviest was only further W this morning.  Glad you didn't have it as bad as it could have been.

[SRRTA22]

3.23" today for a 3.54" storm total in Jersey City

 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First, the mean placement around NYC was spot on. Second, they have two maps. The ensemble mean was a little on the low side. And the max potential a little on high side. So highest amounts so  far over 8” is a pretty good forecast when you blend the mean and max. Plus the radar estimates have been on the low side and there could be some areas that have close to 10.00”. 

The HREF mean was a little low if anything, I think it was 5-6” in the heaviest area. The max was closer to correct where it had 10” amounts. I’m sure many in S Nassau will have 7-9” and JFK is over 8”. Rockaways look like the worst where radar estimates 10”. And this isn’t over-there won’t be heavy rain after the firehose passes but enough to maybe add 0.25” or so. 

[uofmiami]

4.51" now, off the charts...

[Intensewind002]

Getting some decent gusts now 30-35 mph or so

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

This definitely has to be the south shore's Ida, since that area escaped the worst of it then. S Nassau just getting annihilated, and JFK with nearly 8" total.

Ace's neighborhood is flooded badly