Another big Sept rain event between roughly midnight Friday morning and midnight Sunday morning (bulk 9/29-30/2023)

[gravitylover]

37 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

We definitely don’t need the rain out here, unlike earlier this summer, but it’s insane places just to our west and north could reach 10-15” of rain this month, especially after the same areas got that amount in july

I'm over 15" for the month. Approaching 3" today. 

If it snows like this even once this coming winter I'll be happy. This would be over 10" per hour! 

[Pequest]

Wow sun coming out now between the clouds out here in Warren County! 

[Dark Star]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Been trying to look at that as well.  Let me know if you figure it out first.

One forecaster did say that the remains of Ophelia would meander southeast, then possibly circle back again by weeks' end.  It may be difficult to say, unless we have a foresenic meteorologist on board...

[TJW014]

Moderate to occasional heavy rain again the past hour or so down here. Up to 2.71".


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[NJwx85]

The 12z HRDPS focuses the heaviest over Westchester and SW CT this afternoon. Sharp cutoff around the I-87/287 split.

[Rtd208]

Not really sure how much rain we will see west of the Hudson River this afternoon. Everything seems to be concetrated to the east and that looks like it might continue. We'll see.

[jm1220]

State of emergency declared in NYC. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Not really sure how much rain we will see west of the Hudson River this afternoon. Everything seems to be concetrated to the east and that looks like it might continue. We'll see.

I wouldn’t follow any model too closely, they’re flopping around and some are clearly wrong already like the 12z GFS. 

[Rtd208]

Just now, jm1220 said:

State of emergency declared in NYC. 

 

[JustinRP37]

I'm just hoping I'm able to get home... This is ridiculous rain. Really impressive here in the Bronx. 

[mob1]

JFK-east will probably be the next big problem area. 

[IrishRob17]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1116 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Areas affected...far eastern PA into NJ, southern NY/Long Island,
CT and western MA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 291515Z - 292045Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will remain likely across the tri-state
region over the next few hours, some of which could be significant
to major. Rainfall rates of 1-3 in/hr and additional totals of 3-6
inches prior to 21Z should be expected, leading to a very
dangerous situation if these totals overlap with 3-6 inches of
rain which has already fallen over NYC.

DISCUSSION...1445Z regional radar imagery continued to show
widespread moderate to heavy rain across the NYC metro into
southern NY/western CT/western MA. The highest rainfall rates were
located just north of NYC into far western CT, along a low level
convergence axis forced by a mesoscale circulation over NYC.
Wunderground and NYC Mesonet/NYC Micronet gauge data has shown 3-6
inches of rain has fallen across the Five Boroughs with rainfall
rates peaking in the 2-3 in/hr range over Brooklyn around 12Z,
resulting in numerous flash flood impacts across the region. While
lightning observations have been largely absent, a few embedded
thunderstorms have been observed where elevated instability of a
few hundred J/kg was present, rooted near the 850 mb level via the
12Z OKX sounding. Precipitable water values were near 1.6 inches,
just above the 90th percentile for late September but despite the
somewhat modest moisture, forcing for ascent was strong...owing to
low level overrunning of an inverted surface trough which extended
northward from the northern Mid-Atlantic coast into far western
Long Island at 14Z. Low level winds centered near 850 mb were
averaging 20-30 kt from the SE, supporting multiple rounds of
heavy rain with recent redevelopment of heavier rain along and
offshore of Manmouth and Ocean counties in eastern NJ.

Pivoting of the 20-30 kt low level axis of winds to the north of
an 850 mb circulation centered over southern NJ is expected to
support the refocusing of heavy rain into portions of
central/northern NJ while southeasterly flow maintains areas of
heavy rain into southern NY and portions of western CT/MA, where
terrain influences will augment rainfall intensities. The
potential for 1-3 in/hr rates will remain with the higher end of
that range more likely over far eastern PA into NJ where
increasing instability into the early afternoon is expected with
continued low level moisture advection, allowing for MUCAPE values
in the vicinity of 500 J/kg. Flash flooding is likely to continue
across the region, with areas of major flash flooding likely where
overlap of additional heavy rain occurs with areas of ongoing
flash flooding with an additional totals of 3-6 inches expected in
some locations.

[Maureen]

Our garage. At least the basement has been spared. So far!

[lee59]

Approaching 2 inches here with heavy rain but the heaviest has been just to my west, so far.

[CoastalWx]

JFK-LGA-HPN and just east are gonna be in trouble. May have trouble getting to Manhattan? At least the uber heavy stuff. 

[Rtd208]

 

[Tatamy]

16 minutes ago, Pequest said:

Wow sun coming out now between the clouds out here in Warren County! 

Same over here.

[Terraryzing87]

Mets game is cancelled. Yet Pier 17 still going through with an outdoor concert. Shameful.

[MJO812]

Basements are flooded here in Brooklyn .

[mob1]

JFK with a hair under 6 inches already (very likely over that by now). 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Appears to be expanding east now


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[Rtd208]

The heavy rain in city has just been relentless.

[hooralph]

7 minutes ago, Terraryzing87 said:

Mets game is cancelled. Yet Pier 17 still going through with an outdoor concert. Shameful.

yeah that won't happen.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The heavy rain in city has just been relentless.

The Van Wyck is a disaster on a clear day, can’t imagine it now. 

[MJO812]

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, mob1 said:

JFK with a hair under 6 inches already (very likely over that by now). 

Approaching their two day record.

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Precipitation 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	7.80	2011-08-15	0
-	7.80	2011-08-14	0
3	6.92	1976-08-09	0
4	6.67	1984-07-01	0
5	6.59	2005-10-14	0
6	6.51	1960-09-12	0
7	6.27	1984-06-30	0
8	6.02	2005-10-13	0
9	6.01	1991-08-20	0
10	5.89	1960-09-13	0

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Cross island to. Any rain floods parts of the cross island. I’d rather walk.


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[nycwinter]

well i did say we would get a break lessening of rain looks like the main pivot will be just to the east of manhattan

[Superstorm]

well i did say we would get a break lessening of rain looks like the main pivot will be just to the east of manhattan

Good for city and SI.

Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn in trouble.


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[allgame830]

Just now, Superstorm said:

Good for city and SI.

Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn in trouble.


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What about up here in Westchester? Just went over 4” and it’s relentless!