Another big Sept rain event between roughly midnight Friday morning and midnight Sunday morning (bulk 9/29-30/2023)

[hudsonvalley21]

  On 9/28/2023 at 11:23 PM, Allsnow said:

Really? Looks pretty dangerous for NE NJ  and nyc on radar 

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Us folks north of the city could be affected by orographic lifting 

[MJO812]

I have my bedroom furniture coming tomorrow 

[Allsnow]

Nyc 4-5 on the euro 

[Allsnow]

[uofmiami]

  On 9/29/2023 at 12:06 AM, Allsnow said:

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Here's weathermodel's image at 54hrs:

[steve392]

What's 6am looking like tomorrow? Trying to decide if I need to leave earlier for work. 

[Stormlover74]

  On 9/29/2023 at 12:17 AM, steve392 said:

What's 6am looking like tomorrow? Trying to decide if I need to leave earlier for work. 

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[Wannabehippie]

Central park has seen 8"+ so far in September. Monthly record is something like 16.85" in I believe 1882. Do we have a shot at breaking that record with all the precip that is headed our way tonight, tomorrow, and in to Saturday AM?

[Stormlover74]

Just this through noon

[Wannabehippie]

  On 9/29/2023 at 12:31 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Just this through noon

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That is some pretty hefty rain fall, just thru noon. And it is supposed to go another 18 hours after that, with varying intensity obviously, right?

 

[Stormlover74]

  On 9/29/2023 at 12:55 AM, Wannabehippie said:

That is some pretty hefty rain fall, just thru noon. And it is supposed to go another 18 hours after that, with varying intensity obviously, right?

 

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Pretty much

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[psv88]

Rain drying up as it approaches my area again lol. Same pattern since May

[Brian5671]

  On 9/29/2023 at 1:07 AM, psv88 said:

Rain drying up as it approaches my area again lol. Same pattern since May

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[MattPetrulli]

Uh

[Allsnow]

Pouring here currently…

 

.10 

[Brian5671]

0z HRRR is a bit more realistic-the 12z & 18z run had a foot of rain over LI by 2pm...that's gone now. (granted it's out of range that far out)

[SRRTA22]

Radar is absolutely locked and loaded and aimed right for NYC metro

[cleetussnow]

  On 9/29/2023 at 12:31 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Just this through noon

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I have to go to West Point tomorrow which got destroyed last time.  That map is the worst case scenario.  

[qg_omega]

  On 9/29/2023 at 1:23 AM, Brian5671 said:

0z HRRR is a bit more realistic-the 12z & 18z run had a foot of rain over LI by 2pm...that's gone now. (granted it's out of range that far out)

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Yes getting more realistic 1 to 4 depending on location

[jm1220]

  On 9/29/2023 at 1:24 AM, SRRTA22 said:

Radar is absolutely locked and loaded and aimed right for NYC metro

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You can start to see where this initial round of rain is favoring. 

[mob1]

I'm in Brooklyn and it's absolutely pouring now. Rain has a tropical feel to it. 

[MJO812]

  On 9/29/2023 at 1:35 AM, mob1 said:

I'm in Brooklyn and it's absolutely pouring now. Rain has a tropical feel to it. 

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Yep heavy rain

[hudsonvalley21]

  On 9/29/2023 at 1:30 AM, cleetussnow said:

I have to go to West Point tomorrow which got destroyed last time.  That map is the worst case scenario.  

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I was thinking the same. The ground is saturated already. 

[Stormlover74]

  On 9/29/2023 at 1:34 AM, jm1220 said:

You can start to see where this initial round of rain is favoring. 

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I95 on east

[winterwx21]

  On 9/29/2023 at 1:37 AM, Stormlover74 said:

I95 on east

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0z HRRR has us right near the edge of the very heavy stuff. Go west into Somerset County and amounts drop off to very little. Extremely close call for our area. 

[qg_omega]

HRRRR down about 10 inches from 18z

[Stormlover74]

  On 9/29/2023 at 1:42 AM, winterwx21 said:

0z HRRR has us right near the edge of the very heavy stuff. Go west into Somerset County and amounts drop off to very little. Extremely close call for our area. 

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We'll see if it keeps shifting east and what the nam does but yeah I could see us getting 5 or .5

[Brian5671]

  On 9/29/2023 at 1:42 AM, qg_omega said:

HRRRR down about 10 inches from 18z

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not sure why it's run that far out 4x a day...best within 0-6 hrs anything beyond that is fantasy

[BoulderWX]

  On 9/29/2023 at 1:42 AM, winterwx21 said:

0z HRRR has us right near the edge of the very heavy stuff. Go west into Somerset County and amounts drop off to very little. Extremely close call for our area. 

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I’m in eastern morris county. Could see .20 or 3” - neither would surprise me.