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Another big Sept rain event between roughly midnight Friday morning and midnight Sunday morning (bulk 9/29-30/2023)

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag
wdrag

And what is the pressure off the Low. Maybe 1008 MB!  Doesn't take an intense low to create near record rainfall.  Eye opener.

forkyfork
forkyfork

bump

qg_omega
qg_omega

Upton not impressed && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall from Thu night into Sat somewhat uncertain. Areas from NYC north/west and across SE CT/eastern Long Island appear most likely to see a

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah 3km is suddlenly much less bullish on anyone in the tri-state getting huge amounts. Keeps the extremely heavy stuff to the southeast off the coast. As many have pointed out, this is the type of event that is incredibly hard to predict. We won't know until tomorrow what area will get under the extremely heavy band. Hopefully it will miss like 3km NAM shows, but who knows. 

this output doesn't make much sense... the 26" max offshore hints at feedback problems

Displaying 6515dddb1bd9c.png

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah 3km is suddlenly much less bullish on anyone in the tri-state getting huge amounts. Keeps the extremely heavy stuff to the southeast off the coast. As many have pointed out, this is the type of event that is incredibly hard to predict. We won't know until tomorrow what area will get under the extremely heavy band. Hopefully it will miss like 3km NAM shows, but who knows. 

Today's RGEM also showed that with the worst off the coast

1696064400-w1MB9L4LEr4.png

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wdrag

wdrag

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So this is what I'm going to follow in the tropical discussion as this gale center possibly transitions in its se-s motion away from us Sunday. It's modeling and the HRRR could be 10 MPH too high on its 48 hour 65 MPH gust prediction for early Saturday afternoon but with showers there... I wouldn't want to be sailing. NOT smart, imo.

18z Saturday satellite simulation from the 18z/28 HRRR and its gust prediction well south of LI/RI

Screen Shot 2023-09-28 at 4.11.08 PM.png

Screen Shot 2023-09-28 at 4.13.13 PM.png

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Today's RGEM also showed that with the worst off the coast

1696064400-w1MB9L4LEr4.png

Lets's hope. If it was the winter I'd be rooting hard to get hit by a lot of snow from an inverted trough, but we don't need any more heavy rain right now. Hopefully this will keep trending east, but who knows. Extremely difficult forecast. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Lets's hope. If it was the winter I'd be rooting hard to get hit by a lot of snow from an inverted trough, but we don't need any more heavy rain right now. Hopefully this will keep trending east, but who knows. Extremely difficult forecast. 

If anything it’s trending west. We’ll see what happens as it gets together. 

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