Another big Sept rain event between roughly midnight Friday morning and midnight Sunday morning (bulk 9/29-30/2023)

[uofmiami]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

New UKMET has 10.5” rain at Islip, looks just like Aug 2014 again with amounts/distribution. Upton should really be issuing watches soon. 

I'm sure they'll go out on the afternoon update, usually around 3pm.  I agree they should issue the watch now though.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Earlier you mentioned the big totals of rain were around Farmingdale/Bethpage; now it appears as though the "bullseye" is bit further east-Islip.  Would it be reasonable to assume that the "bullseye" can continue to move east and ultimately off shore?
 

That was on a different model-HRRR. The “bullseye” might really be anywhere in our sub forum but even if not there it looks to be a much bigger area of 2-3”+ rain. 

[495weatherguy]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That was on a different model-HRRR. The “bullseye” might really be anywhere in our sub forum but even if not there it looks to be a much bigger area of 2-3”+ rain. 

ok--appreciate the clarification--hoping the huge totals never materialize.

[Rtd208]

There are going to be alot of people caught off guard by this storm IMO. People just don't pay attention or care no matter how much you get the information out there. Tomorrow mornings commute could be a nightmare if some of these higher rainfall amounts occur. 

[Allsnow]

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

There are going to be alot of people caught off guard by this storm IMO. People just don't pay attention or care no matter how much you get the information out there. Tomorrow mornings commute could be a nightmare if some of these higher rainfall amounts occur. 

Thats why I posted the nam on my fb page to explain the potential of how bad it could get. I had responses like that's not what my weather app is showing

[Allsnow]

@Stormlover74 we need a ukmet map 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@Stormlover74 we need a ukmet map 

From 12z 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Thats why I posted the nam on my fb page to explain the potential of how bad it could get. I had responses like that's not what my weather app is showing

the general public is not that smart but in fairness the media has overhyped so much in general people just tune out

[mob1]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

From 12z 

What did it look at at 0Z? Never mind, Pivotal has a trend option. 

[Rtd208]

[vegan_edible]

13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

ruh roh

[Nibor]

33 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Thats why I posted the nam on my fb page to explain the potential of how bad it could get. I had responses like that's not what my weather app is showing

I’ve had so many arguments with friends over this stuff. 

[Stormlover74]

First batch of showers starting to move onshore

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

To be fair I think that’s the max ensemble member not the mean, but shows the scary potential here. That’s a 15” dot just north of me. And obviously many millions of people are in 7”+. 

[forkyfork]

45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Thats why I posted the nam on my fb page to explain the potential of how bad it could get. I had responses like that's not what my weather app is showing

i don't bother doing that anymore because people say you're crying wolf

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, jm1220 said:

To be fair I think that’s the max ensemble member not the mean, but shows the scary potential here. That’s a 15” dot just north of me. And obviously many millions of people are in 7”+. 

the PMM is still insane. can't remember the last time I saw a splotch of 7" like that

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the PMM is still insane. can't remember the last time I saw a splotch of 7" like that

IDA

[Brian5671]

Euro out through 12 looks to be west

[Terraryzing87]

Well this seems like it'll be quite the event, so glad I have an outdoor concert that's rain or shine in NYC tomorrow. If even half what the models are outputting come to pass, what a miserable day/night.

 

Still, as a weather nerd this is impressive as all get out.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the PMM is still insane. can't remember the last time I saw a splotch of 7" like that

Yikes. And I agree, people are definitely thinking tomorrow will just be a normal rainy day. 

[forkyfork]

euro is well west. yikes

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I would expect to see the euro shift south with its rain axis at 12z after seeing the rest of the guidance 

Exactly what’s happening 

[Allsnow]

[Big Jims Videos]

Just now, forkyfork said:

euro is well west. yikes

Can Ocean County get 15 inches of rain in a week? At the very least our perpetual drought blip on the monitor over us will be long gone. 

[TJW014]

2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Can Ocean County get 15 inches of rain in a week? At the very least our perpetual drought blip on the monitor over us will be long gone. 

Would double what we got from the whole summer combined lol

[Gravity Wave]

Starting to wonder if New Jersey might just liquefy and melt away into the Atlantic. 

[Brian5671]

Euro drier than the meso's but clearly west

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro drier than the meso's but clearly west

You only posted through 03z Saturday. The storm isn't over until Saturday afternoon at best.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro drier than the meso's but clearly west

There’s more rain after this panel but Euro would be a manageable event general 2-3” vs major flooding.