October 2023 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict temperature anomalies for

DCA_NYC_BOS__ ORD_ATL_IAH__ DEN_ PHX_ SEA 

in F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages ("normals")

Deadline for on-time entries 06z Sunday 1st of October 2023. 

Good luck !!

You may already have seen my post in September thread giving a detailed history of our contests back to 2013, and summaries of your wins and best scores. I know about half the regulars have seen this by comments and reactions. Enjoy. 

Also preliminary scoring posted over in September thread, to be adjusted at end of month. 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 1.8       1.7       1.6       1.8      1.0     1.7          2.2      1.1     -0.1

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA_NYC_BOS__ ORD_ATL_IAH__ DEN_ PHX_ SEA

1.0     1.0    1.0      1.0    1.5    1.5     0.5    1.0   0.0

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 1.2      1.3       1.6       -0.2     0.6     0.6       2.0      2.4    2.2 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

-0.3     0.5      1.0        1.7     -0.8    2.5        1.0      -0.6     0.6 

[Rjay]

DCA:  +0.0

NYC:  +0.3

BOS:  +0.5

ORD:  0.0

ATL:  +0.5

IAH:  +2.5

DEN:  +2.0

PHX:  +1.5

SEA:  +1.5

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +0.9

NYC:  +1.1

BOS:  +1.4

ORD:  +0.9

ATL:  +0.3

IAH:  +1.8

DEN:  +0.7

PHX:  +1.1

SEA:  +1.3 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

 1.1       1.2      1.6        2.9     0.9     1.5         2.7      1.7      1.9

[Roger Smith]

+1.7 for all nine. 

[Tom]

DCA:  +0.3

NYC:  +0.5

BOS:  +0.5

ORD:  -0.3

ATL:  -0.1

IAH:  +1.4

DEN:  +1.2

PHX:  +0.9

SEA:  +1.6

[so_whats_happening]

Dc. +1.6

Nyc +1.4

Bos +1.7

Ord +2.3

Iah +1.2

Atl +1.3

Den +1

Phx +.8

Sea +1.1

Late entry at 9:40am

[Roger Smith]

I am away from base for a couple of days so table of forecasts may not appear until Oct 4, can somebody in NYC group give BKV and r16 a message re contest deadline? 

[Rhino16]

On 10/2/2023 at 3:29 AM, Roger Smith said:

I am away from base for a couple of days so table of forecasts may not appear until Oct 4, can somebody in NYC group give BKV and r16 a message re contest deadline? 

I wasn’t even checking the forum, was busy with tests and weekly forecasting contests at school. I appreciate the reminder, but got sick so didn’t feel like making one this month.

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for October 2023

 

Forecaster _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

hudsonvalley21 ___________________ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ___ +2.2 _ +1.1 _ -0.1 

Roger Smith ______________________ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7

so_whats_happening __ (-1%) ____ +1.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +1.3 _ +1.2 ___ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.1

wxallannj __________________________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 ___ -0.2 _ +0.6 _ +0.6 ___+2.0 _ +2.4 _ +2.2 

DonSutherland1 ___________________ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.6 ___+2.9 _ +0.9 _ +1.5 ___ +2.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.9

___ Consensus _____________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.4 _ +0.8 _ +1.6 ___ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.4

Scotty Lightning ___________________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

wxdude64 _________________________+0.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 ___+0.9 _ +0.3 _ +1.8 ___ +0.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.3

Tom _______________________________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ -0.3 _ -0.1 _ +1.4 ___ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ +1.6

RJay _______________________________ 0.0 _ +0.3 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +0.5 _+2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5

___ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS __________________________ -0.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +1.7 _ -0.8 _+2.5 ___ +1.0 _ -0.6 _ +0.6

 

___ Persistence (Sep 2023) ________+1.0 _ +0.2 _ +1.8 __ +3.2 _ +0.9 _ +4.8 ___+3.2 _ +2.0 _ -0.6

_________________

highest forecasts in red, coldest in blue. Normal was coldest for NYC, BOS, IAH and DEN. 

 

[Roger Smith]

After two weeks, first report on October and projections: 

 

______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__ (anom 14d) _______ +1.5 _ +1.9 _ +3.6 __ +3.8 _ +0.4 _ -0.9 ___ +1.5 _ +2.9 _ +2.8  

__ (anom 22d) _______ +0.4 _ +1.2 _ +3.0 __ +2.8 _ -0.8 _ -1.2 ___ +4.6 _ +5.7 _ +3.2*

* SEA data for Oct 19  msg, 3.2 is anom for rest of days, 3.6 is likely closer to actual value as Oct 19 72/60 at nearby location

 

15__ (p anom 31d) __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0

23__ (p anom 31d) __+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0

31__ (final anom) ___ +2.3 _ +2.6 _ +4.4 __ +3.1 _+1.0 _ +0.4 ___ +1.4 _ +4.5 _ +0.7*

 

(Oct 15) _ A warm spell is indicated for next ten days in west, followed by more variable conditions; cool in east at times, but balanced by a few warmer days so anomalies will likely drift down slowly. 

(Oct 23) _ Turning colder in west, and very warm in east, preliminary scoring will follow. 

(Oct 31) _ Posting end of October anomalies; scoring will be adjusted later on Nov 1st. 

* SEA missed 3 days of data, but looking at nearby locations, average (one warm day and two moderately cool) was a bit higher than final overall departure of +0.7 but I won't adjust, resulting error is small (0.2) or perhaps zero if data average is different site to site. Also these three days may be added to CF6 at final report a few days later in Nov.  Will check back to see if they revise; 

[Roger Smith]

 

Final scoring for October 2023

Scoring is based on latest posted projected anomalies for end of October.

* scores include one point late penalty

^ BOS was scored by max-60 rule but a small spread of scores made it difficult to render a fair result so I decided to add 14 to all scores to keep differentials same as raw scores. Normal was left at raw score of 12. ... PHX was given a standard adjustment but bottom half of scoring stayed at raw scores not adjusted as those were higher than progression (60, 54, etc). 

 

Forecaster _____________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

Roger Smith ____________________ 88 _ 82 _ 60^__ 230__ 72 _ 86 _ 74 __ 232 __ 462 __ 94 _ 54^_ 80 __ 228 ____ 690

so_whats_happening __ (-1%) __ 85*_ 75*_ 60^__220 __ 83*_93*_ 83*__259 __ 479 __ 91*_ 26 _ 91*__ 208 ____ 687

hudsonvalley21 _________________90 _ 82 _ 58^__ 230__ 74 _100 _74 __ 248 __ 478 __ 84 _ 36^_ 84 __ 204 ____ 682

DonSutherland1 ________________ 76 _ 72 _ 58^__ 206 __ 96 _ 98 _ 78 __ 272 __ 478 __ 74 _ 54^_ 76 __ 204 ____ 682

___ Consensus _________________ 76 _ 72 _ 56^__ 204 __ 66 _ 96 _ 76 __ 238 __ 442 __ 90 _ 36^_ 86 __ 212 ____ 654

wxallannj _______________________ 78 _ 74 _ 58^__ 210 __ 34 _ 92 _ 96 __ 222 __ 432 __ 88 _ 60^_ 70 __218 ____ 650

wxdude64 ______________________72 _ 70 _ 54^__ 196 __ 56 _ 86 _ 72 __ 214 __ 410 __ 86 _ 36^_ 88 __ 210 ____ 620

Scotty Lightning ________________74 _ 68 _ 46^__ 188 __ 58 _ 90 _ 78 __ 226 __ 414 __ 82 _ 30 _ 86 __ 198 ____ 612

Tom ____________________________ 60 _ 58 _ 36^__ 154 __ 32 _ 78 _ 80 __ 190 __ 344 __ 96 _ 28 _ 82 __ 206 ____ 550

RJay ____________________________54 _ 54 _ 36^__ 144 __ 38 _ 90 _ 58 __ 186 __ 330 __ 88 _ 42^_ 84 __ 214 ____ 544

RodneyS _______________________ 48 _ 58 _ 46^__ 152 __ 72 _ 64 _ 58 ___ 194 __ 346 __ 92 _ 06^_ 98 __ 196 ____ 542

___ Normal _____________________ 54 _ 48 _ 12 ___ 114 __ 38 _ 80 _ 92 __ 210 ___ 324 __ 72 _ 10 _ 86 __ 168 ____ 492

 

___ Persistence (Sep 2023) _____74 _ 52 _ 62^__ 188 __ 98 _ 98 _ 12 __ 208 __ 396 __ 64 _ 57^_ 74 __ 195 ____ 591

====================== [][] =====================

 

Extreme forecasts 

DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD and PHX are all wins for high forecasts. 

hudsonvalley has 1.5 (DCA, NYC*), DonS takes one (ORD), wxallannj also one (PHX), Roger Smith 1.0 (NYC*, BOS*), and so_whats_happening 0.5 (BOS*); ... *NYC and BOS were shared wins.

IAH (+0.4) goes to coldest forecast, wxallannj (+0.6). Normal takes a loss (0.0).

ATL, DEN and SEA all finished close to consensus and did not qualify. 

(I only introduced "persistence" as a scored entity recently and have not noted its extreme forecast performance, I may do so later, but for OCT persistence would win two, BOS and ORD.)

ANNUAL UPDATE to FOLLOW BY NOV 2nd 

[Roger Smith]

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - OCTOBER 2023 ---- >>>> === ===

 

Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. 

 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS

 

DonSutherland1 ___________ 672 _630 _ 698 __2000 __788 _778 _646 __2212__4212 __705 _616 _776 __2097 ____6309

wxallannj __________________ 625 _612 _ 649 __ 1886 __ 767 _744 _574__ 2085 __3971 __673 _630 _672 __ 1975 ____5946

 

___ Consensus _____________621 _600 _ 667 __ 1888__ 771 _670 _607 __2048 __3936 _ 619 _577 _ 774 __ 1970 ____ 5906

 

hudsonvalley21 ____________643 _622 _ 693 __1958 __776 _677 _591 __ 2044 __4002 __596 _522 _ 775 __ 1893 ____5895

RJay _______________________580 _570 _ 575 __1725 __ 707 _654 _680__ 2041 __3766 __ 579 _639 _ 783 __ 2001 ____5767

RodneyS __________________ 628 _596 _652 __1876 __ 615 _585 _636 __ 1836 __3712 _  709 _ 540 _ 778 __ 2027 ____5739

wxdude64 _________________638 _639 _580 __1857 __ 579 _726 _540 __1845 __ 3702 __699 _568 _ 742 __ 2009 ____5711

Scotty Lightning ___________571 _576 _614 __ 1761 __ 673 _605 _568 __ 1846 __ 3607 __534 _440 _ 610 __ 1584 ____5191

... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ...

... ... ... Tom's unimproved score is still ahead of Roger Smith and just below Scotty L ...

... ... ... Tom's pro-rated score compares to about 6th place above in the scoring table (just below wxdude64 and BKViking). 

... ... ... BKViking's pro-rated score is just below Tom's and gross score just below Roger Smith

... ... ... Stormchaser Chuck's pro-rated score is between 1st and 2nd, below only contest leader Don Sutherland1. 

... ... ... so_whats_happening has a pro-rated score between 7th and 8th.

... ... ... rhino16 has a pro-rated score between 9th and 10th. ......... .............. .................... .............................. ...... scores _ pro-rated to 10

Tom (9/10) __________________567 _530 _565 __1662 __552 _558 _540 __1650 __ 3312 __604 _452 _665 __1721 _____5033 (5592)

Roger Smith ________________550 _456 _464 __1470 __579 _519 _628 __1726 __ 3196 __ 535 _552 _740 __1827 ____ 5023

BKViking (9/10) _____________546 _506 _583 __1635 __ 663 _550 _545 __1758 __ 3393 __475 _492 _ 588 __1555 ____4948 (5498)

___ Normal __________________512 _528 _500 __1540 __574 _572 _444 __1590 __ 3130 __ 554 _ 392 _640 __1586 ____4712

Rhino16 (6/10) ______________400 _414 _416 __ 1230 __448 _432 _236 __1116 __ 2346 __ 331 _278 _452 __1061 ____ 3407 (5678)

so_whats_happening (6/10)_341 _321 _382 __ 1044 __426 _352 _337 __1115 __ 2159 __ 327 _348 _447 __ 1122 ____ 3281 (5468) 

Stormchaser Chuck (4/10)__251 _272 _268 ___791 __341 _174 _ 224 ___ 739 __ 1530 __284 _300 _334 ___918 ____ 2448 (6080) 

Terpeast (1/10) _____________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 ___ 146 ____ 482 (4438)

rainsucks (1/10) ____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 ___ 232 ____ 456 (4204)

- - - - -

___ Persistence ____________501 _428 _512 __1441 __618 _605 _564 __1787 ___3228 __ 368 _497 _560 __1425 ____4653  

 ... (persistence scores a bit lower overall but can score better in a few cases) ...

 ... (persistence scoring added to all 2023 reports) ...

 

_______________________________________________________

 

Best Forecasts

 

* shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not)

^ shared with two other forecasters for one month 

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months

 

DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____3*___ 1* ___ 0____4 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 3^___2*___ 1 ____3 _ Jan,Mar,Aug

wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____3***__1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 1*____1* _ May(t),July

___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May

hudsonvalley21 ____________2*____ 2*____ 1 ___ 1*____ 0^____1 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____1* _ May(t)

RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___4 ___ 2 ___ 2*___ 0___ 4**^__1___ 1*____0 

RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 2*___ 2 ____ 2*____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___3*___2 ___ 2* ___3 ___ 2 _ Jun,Sep

wxdude64 _________________1^____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr

Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom (9/10) ________________ 2*^___0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 1*___ 1* ___ 1*____2**___ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Oct 

BKViking (9/10) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*^___2 ___1 ____ 0

___ Normal _________________0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0

Rhino16 (6/10) _____________ 2^____ 0 ____ 1*___ 2 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

so_whats_happening (6/10) _0 ____ 0____ 2*___ 0 ____ 0 ____0____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

Stormchaser Chuck (4/10)__2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb

Terpeast (1/10) ____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____0

rainsucks (1/10) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

 

(hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^

-----------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY

 

So far, 70 of 90 forecasts qualify, 40 of them for warmest, and 30 for coldest

... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2, Aug 4-3, Sep 1-3, Oct 5-1 ...

18 of 64 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. 

 

FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct ___ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties)

RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 _2*-0 _1-0 _0-0 ___ 18-1 ______16.0 - 1.0

RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 _ 1*-1 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 10-3 ______ 9.0 - 2

DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1-0 ____ 9-1 ______ 8.5 - 1.0

StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- _____9-4 ______ 8.5 - 4.0

Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 _2*-0_0-0 _2**0 __ 8-1 ______ 5.5 - 0.5

wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 ___ 6-3 _____ 5.0 - 2.0

hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 __ 5-0 _____ 3.5 - 0.0

Rhino16 _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- -- _-- - _ ---- _ --- _ 2*^-0_3-0 _ --- ___ 5-0 _____ 3.83-0

___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* _0-1 ___5-3 _____ 4.5 - 2.5

Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 4-2 _____ 4.0 - 1.5

wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1 _2^-1 _0-2 _ 0-0 ____ 4-4 ____ 2.83 - 4.0

Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_  0-0 _ 0-0 _1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 3-0 ______ 1.83 - 0

BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _--- ____ 2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0

rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ ---- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0

Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0

so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_-- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ --- _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 __ 1-1 ______ 0.5 - 1

===========================================

[Scotty Lightning]

OMG, I suck. 

[Roger Smith]

19 hours ago, Scotty Lightning said:

OMG, I suck. 

No, I suck, I am down with the scores of those who have entered fewer contests. But we are both ahead of normal so that's good.

I am not a very credible source for advice but the only thing that I notice to be different about your forecasts is that you don't cast a very wide range on either side of zero compared to the field, you're ahead of me because my wide-cast net is going out in faulty directions too many times, but your net is often within 1.0 or 1.5 of normal, and the average departure from normal is about 2.5 to 3.0. I wonder if you just doubled every forecast you posted, if your scores would be really quite high? You are 479 points ahead of normal, now if every forecast you've made has been on correct side of normal and I remove ten of ninety forecasts as ties (any time you say 0.0), then basically you are 480 for 80 or 6 points better than normal implying an improvement of 0.3, so if you doubled and improved by 0.6 and 960 total points gained on normal, you would be closer to the pack. Perhaps try even 2.5x or triple your departures? But it all depends on whether a large number of your forecasts are on correct side of normal as I suspect is true, if you are wrong-sign closer to one third of the time my suggestion would not net any large gain. In my own version of futility, I am too hit or miss with a history of doing well in "extreme forecast" scores but obviously bringing along a few complete misses where I score near zero. Up against the likes of DonS and RodneyS, wxallannj and other well known suspects, we cannot be giving away 100 points on stations every fourth or fifth try, it's a recipe for big losses. I did manage a narrow win over the field this month, and it's probably because I went +1.7 on all nine and guessed close to the actual average departure (which was +2.25) so unless all nine were way off the mean, I was bound to score better than consensus and if you can beat consensus, as the table shows, you can beat most entrants (I have never seen consensus below about 4th or 5th). 

Differentials in scoring at this stage boil down to 0.1 F per 180 points, so if you are 720 points behind, you're 0.4 F further from perfect accuracy than the other person. Since DonS is about 2700 points below a perfect score, it implies his average error is 1.5 and yours is closer to 2.0, mine around 2.2. ... this is not quite accurate because of occasional low scoring situations where I boosted scores to max-60. So add about 0.2 to all those estimates to get a truer picture of average forecast errors. It does not say how many times you picked the correct anomaly sign and just very subjectively, I think our better scorers do so about 7 or 8 times out of 9, while 5 or 6 is likely the case for me and perhaps one or two others who enter less often. You are probably also in that good range of 7 or 8 out of 9 but you need more depart in your departures.

I do not notice any other tendencies in our forecast group, the scores tend to run roughly the same order most years so it is mainly a matter of skill levels and over a whole year if you are just 0.1 F below the skill of our usual leader(s) then you will accumulate a 216 point deficit. Very narrow margins in this contest. 

[so_whats_happening]

Im so bad with actually making it on time, i tend to forget until i see its the first. Didnt help i couldnt login for like 2 months.

[Roger Smith]

Yes, I think you had a slightly higher score than I did for October before 1% late penalties. Will note it in the overall log (still being updated in Sep thread and due to move to Dec thread around Jan 4, 2024 after taking care of Dec and 2023 business. 

I can always send a regular p.m. reminder on 30th or 31st of months ending to anyone wanting a reminder. Tom and BKV missed one due to medical issues, and I trust all is well with them now. Your pro-rated score is a fairly good guide to performance even if you miss one or two. But it's not perfect because it partly depends on average score in months you missed.  

I continue to be open to any ideas about expanding our field of forecasters, as you all know, I have tried various outreach attempts like regional forum entry gates, inter-regional contests, and friends inviting friends -- all with very little success but on the other hand we have a fairly dedicated crew of about a dozen so it's worth going on. I will talk to StormchaserChuck about regular entries too, he seems to be a potential contest leader or top few anyway. Same can be said about Rhino16 who has been a bit more frequent in appearances. 

You'll see my annual exercise in futility, appeals to join contest, in your regional forums in December, please encourage anyone you know on Am-Wx to join in. It seems like a total boycott by GL/OV and New England and southeast states after years where they were well represented. I can't really identify any obvious reason other than possibly consistent butt hurt administered by NYC and mid-Atlantic, but when we expanded to western regions some may have felt it was too large a task or too big an ask. I like the coast to coast forecast contest on a coast to coast weather forum and if people are entering just to develop forecast skill, I feel that western accuracy is part of the overall puzzle to be solved. 

[Tom]

Hey Roger all good here recovery is going well at about 90% now.  Thinking outside the box how about everyone chip in $2 per month 24 annually with the winner of month getting monthly prize if you win 1 month already even.  It's not much but might get someone interested if they can win a case of beer or pizza and and 12 pack something like that.   Or can do $3 dollars per month and then each region can win 1/3 of monthly prize.  That might help people to remember as well since they have a little skin in the game so to speak.