Winter outlook 2023-24 for DC area

[brooklynwx99]

then 500mb from Dec-Feb:

[AlexD1990]

^February would be rockin LOL.

 

Tangentially related, but Dan Satterfield(Local on-air Met) posted on his social media today a very(for him) bold call/higher than normal possibility of a possibly snowy winter, and even went so far as to invoke 09-10..

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

then 500mb from Dec-Feb:

My glimmer of hope is that slight ridging off Japan, so working through those warm sst anomalies over the next few months, including December, won't necessarily ruin our chances for sustained +PNA and blocking the second half of winter. 

We still have time.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I miss KA>

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, alexderiemer said:

^February would be rockin LOL.

 

Tangentially related, but Dan Satterfield(Local on-air Met) posted on his social media today a very(for him) bold call/higher than normal possibility of a possibly snowy winter, and even went so far as to invoke 09-10..

We have a winnah.

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I miss KA>

I do too

[psuhoffman]

On 9/25/2023 at 1:50 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Temps: -1

Snowfall:14-18” for DCA, IAD, BWI

Have two months at a 75% probability of being -2 and one month with a 66% probability of being +1.  Will follow Nino pattern and go with Jan and Feb as -2

Primary analog years:1953-54 and 1985-86

Secondary analog years with first two having more weight: 1986-87 and 2010-11.  Also 1954-55, 1980-81, 1983-84, 1991-92, 2019-20.

Couple  of lousy years, some solid cold ones, major storms not showing up.  Might battle suppression this year.  At least way better than last few. 

 

What criteria did you use to identify analogs?  I ask because there is almost nothing that all of these years have in common which is odd for an analog set.  They are incredibly divergent and at glance seemingly random, with respect to every major global climate indicator we track.  For example wrt enso its almost an even mix of Nina, Nino, and neutral seasons.  Equally with PDO, QBO, Solar there is a mix of divergent seasons.  What do these seasons have in common that makes them analogs to this year?  

[Jebman]

On 9/27/2023 at 10:21 AM, WxUSAF said:

Objectively, this winter is sort of fascinating with the mix of forcings that are happening. Nino, -QBO, high strat water vapor from HT-HH eruption, insanely warm oceans from the underwater volcanoes, etc. Will definitely be papers written about this year. I don’t have a strong feeling for how it all shakes out besides thinking we’ll average DJF above normal temps and probably wetter than normal. 

This winter will be one to remember. All those forcings are going to bring incredibly excessive rains and also palisadic-magnitude snows in places that usually do not get ridiculous snows. Like the Washington DC Region this winter. I want those meteorological papers made available to the average person, because I will download, read then memorize every last one of them. One will be about a blizzard in the DC/MD/Va region.

[Stormfly]

Caterpillars can't be wrong, right?

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/25/2023 at 1:50 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Temps: -1

Snowfall:14-18” for DCA, IAD, BWI

Have two months at a 75% probability of being -2 and one month with a 66% probability of being +1.  Will follow Nino pattern and go with Jan and Feb as -2

Primary analog years:1953-54 and 1985-86

Secondary analog years with first two having more weight: 1986-87 and 2010-11.  Also 1954-55, 1980-81, 1983-84, 1991-92, 2019-20.

Couple  of lousy years, some solid cold ones, major storms not showing up.  Might battle suppression this year.  At least way better than last few. 

 

I think is going to be an active STJ and N stream.

[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think is going to be an active STJ and N stream.

That could hypothetically lead to a winter with a mix of southern sliders that cannot phase and get suppressed by the N stream, and late developing N stream dominant systems and clippers that affect areas further north...this would also cause a snow dead zone in between.... I wonder where that zone would end up??? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That could hypothetically lead to a winter with a mix of southern sliders that cannot phase and get suppressed by the N stream, and late developing N stream dominant systems and clippers that affect areas further north...this would also cause a snow dead zone in between.... I wonder where that zone would end up??? 

Honestly, -PDO seasons often have an area that gets screwed, but its not always the mid Atlantic....its often further north. I t could be my area.

[Maestrobjwa]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honestly, -PDO seasons often have an area that gets screwed, but its not always the mid Atlantic....its often further north. I t could be my area.

What was the state of the PDO 2009-10?

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What was the state of the PDO 2009-10?

Modestly negative.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Mar 2010	-0.16
Feb 2010	0.25
Jan 2010	0.05
Dec 2009	-0.51

[Maestrobjwa]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Modestly negative.

Ah ha...I remember you or somebody saying you guys got shafted that year so I kinda figured there was a connection when you said it tends to be better south, lol Now I heard the 1973 super niño did hit south of here pretty well...perhaps a more pronounced -PDO?

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah ha...I remember you or somebody saying you guys got shafted that year so I kinda figured there was a connection when you said it tends to be better south, lol Now I heard the 1973 super niño did hit south of here pretty well...perhaps a more pronounced -PDO?

Yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can't think of a physical reason, aside from maybe the unfavorable Pacific not allowing the s stream to amplify enough to run the orgy all the way up the coast.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't think of a physical reason, aside from maybe the unfavorable Pacific not allowing the s stream to amplify enough to run the orgy all the way up the coast.

The nice visual aside, I imagine the warmer gulf and carribbean (over 30c right now) might get the SS to amplify more and shift the storm track a bit north, so what used to be a deep southern slider and a MA miss may become a MA hit. Also what used to be a MA hit SNE miss may hit SNE instead. 

Could be wrong, so we’ll see. 

[H2O]

18 hours ago, Stormfly said:

Caterpillars can't be wrong, right?

Dude, I literally just saw my first wooly today.  ALL BLACK!!!!

 

WINTER WILL BE EPIC!!!!  LFG!!!!!!!  

[Maestrobjwa]

45 minutes ago, H2O said:

Dude, I literally just saw my first wooly today.  ALL BLACK!!!!

 

WINTER WILL BE EPIC!!!!  LFG!!!!!!!  

Did you really see one though? Lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

 

39 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did you really see one though? Lol

Strange but I don't think I've ever actually seen a Woolly Bear myself.  I do remember in northeast OH, Dick Goddard (the local and very good met there for decades...may he rest in peace!) hosted the annual Woolly Bear Festival every fall!  It was quite popular and still going on each year I believe.

And on another note, how much for Short Pump and that place in PA???   (Someone had to say it...)

[WEATHER53]

Lots of views and thank you for all the heavy hitters joining in the discussion. 53-54 continues to pop up  with so many things that have happened this year matching  1953 

[Terpeast]

39 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Lots of views and thank you for all the heavy hitters joining in the discussion. 53-54 continues to pop up  with so many things that have happened this year matching  1953 

That one’s also on my running list of analogs

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

That one’s also on my running list of analogs

Warm like this in other analogs of 54 and 86

[Weather Will]

AccuWeather forecast is out.  Quick read they like mid November and February.

[stormy]

Oct. 12 - 18 is now a model hint at STJ  Nino influence for the winter.

It will be interesting, especially for drought stricken portions of the MA.

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, stormy said:

Oct. 12 - 18 is now a model hint at STJ  Nino influence for the winter.

It will be interesting, especially for drought stricken portions of the MA.

I need dry weather through Oct 27th. We are pouring concrete for the first set of mesonet stations and wet ground will delay everything.

[stormy]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I need dry weather through Oct 27th. We are pouring concrete for the first set of mesonet stations and wet ground will delay everything.

The weather Gods will probably smile on your desires......................... This STJ  stuff usually doesn't show up until later in November with a Nino.

[ldub23]

We  have  had a  pattern of  lows forming  off the SE coast  and  moving  offshore. If this  pattern repeats  in dec-feb it will be quite snowy especially  I-95east