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Winter outlook 2023-24 for DC area


WEATHER53
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On 9/25/2023 at 1:50 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Temps: -1

Snowfall:14-18” for DCA, IAD, BWI

Have two months at a 75% probability of being -2 and one month with a 66% probability of being +1.  Will follow Nino pattern and go with Jan and Feb as -2

Primary analog years:1953-54 and 1985-86

Secondary analog years with first two having more weight: 1986-87 and 2010-11.  Also 1954-55, 1980-81, 1983-84, 1991-92, 2019-20.

Couple  of lousy years, some solid cold ones, major storms not showing up.  Might battle suppression this year.  At least way better than last few. 

 

Im thinking a  little  bit  higher, 18-22 inches

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  • 3 weeks later...

Keeping my eyes open now.  Thanksgiving initially was predicted as in the 40’s and that was off by 10+ degrees likely due to not handling the storm and its departure correctly.  Now Saturday looks about 5F milder than predicted 2/3 days ago with a more impressive thrust due Tuesday. Let’s see how that materializes.  Don’t want a string of postponements to be showing up or the delayed but not denied drivel starts flowing 

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On 9/25/2023 at 1:50 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Temps: -1

Snowfall:14-18” for DCA, IAD, BWI

Have two months at a 75% probability of being -2 and one month with a 66% probability of being +1.  Will follow Nino pattern and go with Jan and Feb as -2

Primary analog years:1953-54 and 1985-86

Secondary analog years with first two having more weight: 1986-87 and 2010-11.  Also 1954-55, 1980-81, 1983-84, 1991-92, 2019-20.

Couple  of lousy years, some solid cold ones, major storms not showing up.  Might battle suppression this year.  At least way better than last few. 

 

Midway Dec 15 looking to be about +1.5  so my +1 idea for Dec seems right so far. Looks like 1-2 storms per week for 6-8 weeks by end Dec so let’s get cold and snowy. 

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1/21/24 update

i thought about asking around Jan 1 that might I be off by +2 for DJF. I had Dec +1 and it was 2 too low so would my -2 for JF turn out as 0. Zero is no torch for JF so decent snow still a good idea. Just past halfway point and my snowfall ideas are halfway there. 
This  was a great cold and snowy 9/10 days. I’m rooting for more!

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1/21/24 update
i thought about asking around Jan 1 that might I be off by +2 for DJF. I had Dec +1 and it was 2 too low so would my -2 for JF turn out as 0. Zero is no torch for JF so decent snow still a good idea. Just past halfway point and my snowfall ideas are halfway there. 
This  was a great cold and snowy 9/10 days. I’m rooting for more!
Huh

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

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