WEATHER53 Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 Temps: -1 Snowfall:14-18” for DCA, IAD, BWI Have two months at a 75% probability of being -2 and one month with a 66% probability of being +1. Will follow Nino pattern and go with Jan and Feb as -2 Primary analog years:1953-54 and 1985-86 Secondary analog years with first two having more weight: 1986-87 and 2010-11. Also 1954-55, 1980-81, 1983-84, 1991-92, 2019-20. Couple of lousy years, some solid cold ones, major storms not showing up. Might battle suppression this year. At least way better than last few. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 25, 2023 Share Posted September 25, 2023 From your mouth to God's ear. Just let it snow on the weekend only so I don't have to sit in a windowless operations center watching snow melt on roads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 is this your forecast Howard or keith allen? Hard to believe in a Nino that we would get that little snow if temps are -2 for Jan/Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 8 hours ago, Ji said: is this your forecast Howard or keith allen? Hard to believe in a Nino that we would get that little snow if temps are -2 for Jan/Feb Congrats NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Congrats NC Maybe we'll get to watch VA Beach get clobbered while we enjoy our frozen mud and high clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 42 minutes ago, CAPE said: Congrats NC There’s definitely a hint of suppression in the monthly precip anomalies for February although the H5 charts don’t really suggest it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 20 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Temps: -1 Snowfall:14-18” for DCA, IAD, BWI Have two months at a 75% probability of being -2 and one month with a 66% probability of being +1. Will follow Nino pattern and go with Jan and Feb as -2 Primary analog years:1953-54 and 1985-86 Secondary analog years with first two having more weight: 1986-87 and 2010-11. Also 1954-55, 1980-81, 1983-84, 1991-92, 2019-20. Couple of lousy years, some solid cold ones, major storms not showing up. Might battle suppression this year. At least way better than last few. I'll GLADLY take a repeat of 86-87 winter, especially Jan and Feb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 26, 2023 Author Share Posted September 26, 2023 14 hours ago, Ji said: is this your forecast Howard or keith allen? Hard to believe in a Nino that we would get that little snow if temps are -2 for Jan/Feb Your attempt to rabble rouse is ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 Looks Good H****D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: Looks Good H****D. Hopefully we can get a white Christmas this year. Something like 5" - 10" that starts Christmas eve. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hopefully we can get a white Christmas this year. Something like 5" - 10" that starts Christmas eve. December isn’t a winter month anymore. It will probably be partly cloudy and 57. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 December isn’t a winter month anymore. It will probably be partly cloudy and 57. 77Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Image won't load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Mid Atlantic is wayyyyyyyyy OVERDUE for a massive snow winter. And, it is coming. BIG-TIME! In spades! Get your Jebman Shovels. massive amounts of grub and IPA's and whatever it is you drink to stay awake. Models will be printing out a TON of heavy snow for DC and vicinity. How do you know this? Jeb said so. That's ALL you need to know. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 5 hours ago, Deck Pic said: December is a winter month this season. It will probably be snowing at 17. It's fixed. DC will get demolished by a massively White Christmas. Everyone in the Washington DC Metropolitan Region will get snowed in and will get unprecedentedly DRUNK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, Jebman said: It's fixed. DC will get demolished by a massively White Christmas. Everyone in the Washington DC Metropolitan Region will get snowed in and will get unprecedentedly DRUNK. If ONLY! I'll take my chances at 24"+ near Mason Dixon line, DC can have their 2" rain at 33F! Nothing is worse than snow to sleet to ZR. Snow or bust. And fluffy stuff at 15"+ per 1" liquid. Slop is bad too. White Christmas would be a real treat. Imagine if Jan 23, 2016 was December 24, 2023. Grass covered by nightfall, wake up to thunder with a foot on the ground and by the time ham/turkey comes out of oven the death bands are still cranking with upwards of three feet on the ground. Boxing day is crisp in the lower 20s and everything is just buried. Everywhere. A Knickerbocker class storm on Christmas day. That would be one to remember for life. For now it's just a (distant) dream. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 27, 2023 Author Share Posted September 27, 2023 12 hours ago, wxdude64 said: I'll GLADLY take a repeat of 86-87 winter, especially Jan and Feb. That was the year that it snowed every time it possibly could. I think that was time Sue Palka was new and on late and radar just blossomed up in over 15 minutes snd we got another nice 4-5” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 27, 2023 Author Share Posted September 27, 2023 7 hours ago, Deck Pic said: Looks Good H****D. What says current reinging champion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormfly said: If ONLY! I'll take my chances at 24"+ near Mason Dixon line, DC can have their 2" rain at 33F! Nothing is worse than snow to sleet to ZR. Snow or bust. And fluffy stuff at 15"+ per 1" liquid. Slop is bad too. White Christmas would be a real treat. Imagine if Jan 23, 2016 was December 24, 2023. Grass covered by nightfall, wake up to thunder with a foot on the ground and by the time ham/turkey comes out of oven the death bands are still cranking with upwards of three feet on the ground. Boxing day is crisp in the lower 20s and everything is just buried. Everywhere. A Knickerbocker class storm on Christmas day. That would be one to remember for life. For now it's just a (distant) dream. We have a winnah. That, is just what IS going to happen in DCA THIS Christmas! Mason Dixon will get 40-50 inches and DC will get 28-40 inches of snow. It will not change to liquid. It will be all snow. It will be very cold then Part 2 will annihilate the DC region AGAIN on New Years Eve! These snow amounts may turn out to be ridiculously conservative. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Jeb or others, would it need to snow to get that result? Seriously, this current cool, blocked low-energy pattern augurs well for intervals of chilly weather in winter too, with chances for snow. I would be predicting about what the OP was saying, not as sure about which parts of winter will be coldest, it could be intervals in each of DEC, JAN, FEB and into early spring too. I hope there is about 25-30" snow rather than the plausible sounding 18" but I don't see big snowfalls, just a steady trickle of low totals in 3-5 inch range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 14 hours ago, CAPE said: CanSIPS has always been a more reliable seasonal model. I'm all in...until its September 30 run. That's probably when I'll be out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: CanSIPS has always been a more reliable seasonal model. I'm all in...until its September 30 run. That's probably when I'll be out. It is generally better. I made the post wrt to the discussion above regarding Dec being a winter month anymore.. white Xmas or torch. CanSIPS at least suggests a chance of the former, CFS not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: It is generally better. I made the post wrt to the discussion above regarding Dec being a winter month anymore.. white Xmas or torch. CanSIPS at least suggests a chance of the former, CFS not so much. Gotcha. Yeah...we've torched hard in December recently (aside from late December last year), but agree that it's either that or a pleasantly surprising white December. That said, last CanSIPS was a weenie run. Would be nice to see it go that way again in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Gotcha. Yeah...we've torched hard in December recently (aside from late December last year), but agree that it's either that or a pleasantly surprising white December. That said, last CanSIPS was a weenie run. Would be nice to see it go that way again in a few days. It has had the favorable Nino h5 look for multiple runs, with the last 2 being especially weenie. Would be a bad sign if it bailed now when we are actually sniffing winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: It has had the favorable Nino h5 look for multiple runs, with the last 2 being especially weenie. Would be a bad sign if it bailed now when we are actually sniffing winter. I believe the seasonal modelas have the best look since 15-16, however, wondering if the polar state changes late Fall despite the early favorablre look up top due to the increased water vapor injecting at the high lattitudes causing a possible colder general look up top with less blocking. Otherwise, hopeful at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Objectively, this winter is sort of fascinating with the mix of forcings that are happening. Nino, -QBO, high strat water vapor from HT-HH eruption, insanely warm oceans from the underwater volcanoes, etc. Will definitely be papers written about this year. I don’t have a strong feeling for how it all shakes out besides thinking we’ll average DJF above normal temps and probably wetter than normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Objectively, this winter is sort of fascinating with the mix of forcings that are happening. Nino, -QBO, high strat water vapor from HT-HH eruption, insanely warm oceans from the underwater volcanoes, etc. Will definitely be papers written about this year. I don’t have a strong feeling for how it all shakes out besides thinking we’ll average DJF above normal temps and probably wetter than normal. Having an active STJ improves chances for favorable storm tracks in our region, so that is a check if the atmosphere behaves in a Nino-ish way. We need some help in the HLs and the -QBO is at least suggestive that we won't see a raging +AO/NAO. Even if those indices are neutral, we can get cold air delivery via the EPO. No idea on impacts due to higher WV in the strat. As usual snow chances will come down to wave timing and how much cold is available. After 3 straight Ninas and NS dominance, at least this will be a roll of the dice that is historically more in our favor. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Objectively, this winter is sort of fascinating with the mix of forcings that are happening. Nino, -QBO, high strat water vapor from HT-HH eruption, insanely warm oceans from the underwater volcanoes, etc. Will definitely be papers written about this year. I don’t have a strong feeling for how it all shakes out besides thinking we’ll average DJF above normal temps and probably wetter than normal. 34 and rain for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Having an active STJ improves chances for favorable storm tracks in our region, so that is a check if the atmosphere behaves in a Nino-ish way. We need some help in the HLs and the -QBO is at least suggestive that we won't see a raging +AO/NAO. Even if those indices are neutral, we can get cold air delivery via the EPO. No idea on impacts due to higher WV in the strat. As usual snow chances will come down to wave timing and how much cold is available. After 3 straight Ninas and NS dominance, at least this will be a roll of the dice that is historically more in our favor. regardless of the CanSIPS, the analogs that I put together (which are similar to those of my colleagues) have quite the warm Dec followed by a transitional Jan and pretty weenie Feb. so I wouldn't be worried if December wasn't great 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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