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October 2023


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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro is very wet tomorrow morning and afternoon. Hrrr has rain in the morning too

Those were two I didn’t look at. GFS and all 3 NAMs don’t really have (I’m on LI) until around 3ish, if not later. I defer to the experts, I know you guys said GFS isn’t always best close to an event.  

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19 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Those were two I didn’t look at. GFS and all 3 NAMs don’t really have (I’m on LI) until around 3ish, if not later. I defer to the experts, I know you guys said GFS isn’t always best close to an event.  

Yeah there's a lot of model disagreement for sure. Probably won't know til we look at the radar in the morning

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10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

81 here now. Hit 83 earlier. It even feels a little muggy with the dewpoint at 60. Feels more like late August than late October. I hope everyone is enjoying this last day of summer! Quite a change coming ... Wednesday we might be stuck in the 40s. 

On 10/2/2023 at 3:15 PM, winterwx21 said:

80 degrees here. Beautiful day. 

Probably gonna hit 83 or 84 tomorrow and Wednesday. A nice last taste of summer this week. 

fingers crossed 

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HOW IT LOOKED AT THE PEAK T and my data for CI:

65*(80%RH) here at 7am.     65* at 9pm.      72* at Noon.     74* at 1pm      78* at 3pm.      80* at 3:15pm.       Reached 82* at 4pm.     79* at 6pm.

1698523200-w5IWOZl84q8.png

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The late-season episode of summer weather will come to an abrupt end tomorrow. Today, readings soared to near record and record highs in much of the East. High temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 82° (old record: 81°, 1984)
Baltimore: 85°
Bangor: 79° (old record: 76°, 1947 and 1989) ***Highest temperature so late in the season***
Boston: 81° (tied record set in 1919)
Bridgeport: 75° (old record: 72°, 1964, 1971, and 2010)
Charlottesville, VA: 89° (old record: 88°, 1919) ***Highest temperature so late in the season***
Concord: 80° (old record: 78°, 1947)
Hartford: 84° (old record: 81°, 1919) ***Highest temperature so late in the season***
Islip: 83° (old record: 75°, 1971) ***Highest temperature so late in the season***
Manchester, NH: 82° (old record: 73°, 1947, 1966, and 2010) ***Highest temperature so late in the season***
New Haven: 79° (old record: 73°, 1977)
New York City-Central Park: 80°
New York City-JFK Airport: 81° (old record: 76°, 2010)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 82° (old record: 80°, 1984)
Newark: 84° (old record: 82°, 1984)
Philadelphia: 83°
Portland, ME: 80° (old record: 78°, 1947)
Providence: 82° (old record: 80°, 1919)
Richmond: 86°
Washington, DC: 86°
White Plains: 81° (old record: 80°, 1964)
Wilmington, DE: 83° (tied record set in 1919)
Worcester: 78°

A weak cold front will bring showers and periods of rain, along with cooler weather tomorrow. Temperatures will rise no higher than the upper 50s and perhaps lower 60s. Monday could be slightly milder, but much colder air will overspread the region late Monday or Monday night. Afterward, the coldest air of the season will cover the region to end October and begin November.

October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was -0.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.611 today.

On October 25 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.256 (RMM). The October 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.121 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2° (2.3° above normal).

 

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Clear and 25 F here (150 north of Spokane near border), inch of snow cover lasted all day in shaded areas, and good view of full moon near Jupiter this evening. I don't think we're in the same air mass. 

I see 1919 managed to keep its record at NYC (83) and looked up map for date, fairly similar, westerly flow in warm sector of low around Lake Ontario to n VT track. Today's NYC max of 80 edged past 79F 1984 as warmest since 1919 (and including years before 1919 as well, record broken was only 72). Warm spell performance so far at NYC is t-3, t-7 and 2nd. Also 2nd highest min for Oct 28 (63 vs 64 in 1971). 

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The last 3 days of October are averaging  53degs.(48/58) or Normal.

Month to date is  61.3[+2.8].      October should end at  60.5[+2.6].

Reached 82 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:   Falling T to 55, wind ne., cloudy, Rain All Day, 56 tomorrow AM.

59*(58%RH) here at 7am.    61* at 9am.     57* at Noon.    56* at 3pm.

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Good Sunday morning... I see it's measured in many parts of NYC metro this morning in the 3A-6A time frame.  Does that qualify as a rain day for the weekend?  

It may not do too much today but it should rain or drizzle some more with most of the action a little north of I80.

 

 

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