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October 2023


wdrag
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The last 4 days of October are averaging  58degs.(53/63) or +5.

Month to date is  60.9[+2.3].      October should end at  60.5[+2.5].

Reached 73 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:  77-81, wind w., clouds late, 55 tomorrow AM.

65*(80%RH) here at 7am.     65* at 9pm.      72* at Noon.     74* at 1pm      78* at 3pm.      80* at 3:15pm.       Reached 82* at 4pm.     79* at 6pm.     75* at 9pm.

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Scattered light showers this afternoon Poconos,   (had sprinkles yesterday forenoon nw NJ), then probably periods of chilly rain Sunday-Monday NYC subforum. This is important because it was the EC that was initially very warm and dry today and it had a hard time dropping south.

Nothing in the bag yet for tomorrow but I use this as a marker for whether the EC-GEM combo for tomorrow was way too far Northwest, as compared to the GFS ie no rain here vs rain on the GFS)... ditto for the November 1 snow threat as outlined by others in the Nov thread.

 

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Scattered light showers this afternoon Poconos,   (had sprinkles yesterday forenoon nw NJ), then probably periods of chilly rain Sunday-Monday NYC subforum. This is important because it was the EC that was initially very warm and dry today and it had a hard time dropping south.

Nothing in the bag yet for tomorrow but I use this as a marker for whether the EC-GEM combo for tomorrow was way too far Northwest, as compared to the GFS ie no rain here vs rain on the GFS)... ditto for the November 1 snow threat as outlined by others in the Nov thread.

 

The NAM and RGEM hold off the rain tomorrow until later especially for S and E sections....we'll see...

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_36.png

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The NAM and RGEM hold off the rain tomorrow until later especially for S and E sections....we'll see...

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_36.png

Keep following the modeling.  

 

I'm looking at SPC HREF, HRRR, and RRFS which all sort of nail everything periodic rain north of I78... however, as you note...it's possible the NAM and further N RGM will be correct.  RGEM has been constantly north.

I favor getting closer to the instability for showery precip and is why I initially favored the further south GFS/GEFS in the longer ranges leading up to this event.  Tomorrow keys early Wed. If GFGS right tomorrow, then I too think it will be correct early Wed.  

 

Will check back tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

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77 and sunny. With enough sun low perhaps mid 80s.   Clouds and showers Sun (10/29) and Mon (10/30). Cooler / chll down 11/1 - 11/3.
Moderating to and above normal 11/4 - 11/6 perhaps some 60s?Back and forth moderating between cooler / normal-above normal till the 9tg. Long range guidance with trough and storm potential in the longer range 11/9-11/11.

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 82 (1984)
NYC: 83 (1919)
LGA: 80 (1984)


Lows:

EWR: 25 (1936)
NYC: 29 (1976)
LGA: 33 (1976)

 

Historical:

1846: In the spring of 1846, a group of nearly 90 emigrants left Springfield, Illinois, and headed west to California. The Donner party arrived at the Great Salt Lake and still needed to cross the Sierra Nevada Mountains late in the season. On this day, a heavy snowfall blocked the pass, thus trapping the emigrants. Only 45 of the original 89 emigrants reached California the following year.

1936 - The temperature at Layton, NJ, dipped to 9 above zero to establish a state record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)

1971 - A severe early season blizzard raged across the Plateau Region and Rocky Mountain Region. Heavy snow blocked railroads and interstate highways, and record cold accompanied the storm. Lander WY received 27 inches of snow, and the temperature at Big Piney WY plunged to 15 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms over the San Joaquin Valley of California produced three-quarters of an inch of rain in thirty minutes at Placerville, and caused numerous power outages due to lightning. Rain began to diminish in the northeastern U.S., but some flooding continued in Vermont, eastern New York and northern New Jersey. One inch rains in Vermont clogged culverts and sewers with fallen leaves, resulting in erosion of dirt roads. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Valentine, NE, dipped to 8 degrees, and Cutbank, MT, reported a morning low of one degree above zero. The temperature at Estes Park CO dipped to 15 degrees, but then soared thirty degrees in less than thirty minutes. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm crossing the western U.S. produced 10 to 20 inches of snow across northern and central Wyoming, with 22 inches reported at Burgess Junction. Seven cities in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings again warmed into the 70s. Alpena MI reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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2 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

NWS pretty bullish on giving us rain tomorrow through the morning until Monday although all these models im looking at don’t have rain starting until late afternoon and it looks to be pretty light. Kinda weird.  

Euro is very wet tomorrow morning and afternoon. Hrrr has rain in the morning too

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