October 2023

[SRRTA22]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i am looking forward to wearing my coat the middle of next week...

You've been wearing your coat since August 

[Franklin0529]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

My friend got out today and killed it by the tip of the hook and the back bay on flutter spoons. Didn’t see much bunker but the birds were working on smaller fish. 
 

@Franklin0529 exactly what you posted 

Yea I was out on Monday an caught so many fish our arms were tired an went home. Some fish 40# an bigger. 

[wdrag]

A period or periods of rain Sunday to keep the consecutive weekend rain events going? Models tending to edge a little south on the axis into our area  And, if we get this one (whoever is counting), I can see another rain event next weekend (4th or 5th) as the sharp trough Tuesday morning passes, ridging quickly follows end of the workweek and then shortwaves chip away at the ridge next weekend. How it goes down both weekends, uncertain but favorable for a period of rain in the NYC subforum, imo.

Also, dissapointing to hear the 5AM TV weather forecast for Halloween (31st).  Chilly yes,  qpf...I don't think that is favored and am not in the 00z/26 EC op camp for Tuesday.  

Finally: fwiw... your color may be pretty good where you are, and we certainly have some, but this is not nearly as colorful a year here in this part of nw NJ as compared to last. Maples lost their leaves too soon, and much less color. More yellows than reds.

Enjoy the warmth this week. 619A26

 

 

[Allsnow]

Today is the last sunset at 6pm until March ugh 

[Allsnow]

 

[CIK62]

 The last 6 days of October are averaging  63degs.(56/70) or +9.

Month to date is  60.3[+1.3].      October should end at  60.8[+2.8].

Reached 72 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  72-77, wind sw., Sun and clouds, 61 tomorrow AM.

59*(75%RH) here at 7am.    60* at 9am.     64* at Noon.     67* at 1pm.      70* at 3pm.     71* at 4pm.

[lee59]

48 here this morning

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Today is the last sunset at 6pm until March ugh 

Awesome

[bluewave]

Great blocking pattern this month but no cold air. 
 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Great blocking pattern this month but no cold air. 
 

It's October

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's October

 

And during the early winter this would be a marginal airmass when even a benchmark track could have mixing issues near the coast. So we would probably have to wait until further into January and February for better snow potential near the coast.

[Allsnow]

Get out and enjoy the peak foliage this weekend 

[the_other_guy]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Great blocking pattern this month but no cold air. 
 

we had plenty of cold air. What you’re looking for, continuous below normal temperatures, doesn’t exist anymore. Period.

This month will be above normal because we had a warm start, a warm finish, and a lot of normal to below normal temperatures in between. Hence your normal leaf out this year…

 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

we had plenty of cold air. What you’re looking for, continuous below normal temperatures, doesn’t exist anymore. Period.

This month will be above normal because we had a warm start, a warm finish, and a lot of normal to below normal temperatures in between. Hence your normal leaf out this year…

 

Huh? The warm anomaly is what it is…as always. Not sure why people always try to downplay it. 
 

47 this morning 

[winterwarlock]

14 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Enjoy your beach day 

Do you think the jersey beaches will be significantly  cooler. If its low 70s thats warm enough with full sun

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Finally: fwiw... your color may be pretty good where you are, and we certainly have some, but this is not nearly as colorful a year here in this part of nw NJ as compared to last. Maples lost their leaves too soon, and much less color. More yellows than reds.

 

 

 

That's how it was in my area too, there's the occasional tree that looks good but overall not so great.  The winds Sunday into earlier this week didn't help any.    

[LoboLeader1]

Reached 71F here yesterday, 80 in reach by the weekend. 

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Today is the last sunset at 6pm until March ugh 

And clocks go back Nov 4th so it will be before 5pm soon...

[North and West]

we had plenty of cold air. What you’re looking for, continuous below normal temperatures, doesn’t exist anymore. Period.
This month will be above normal because we had a warm start, a warm finish, and a lot of normal to below normal temperatures in between. Hence your normal leaf out this year…
 

(Not a doctor, not a denier, etc.) am I missing something? The possibility should exist, but isn’t it just more unlikely than it used to be due to the background warming state?

It can still happen, but the are loaded against it.

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.


.

[North and West]

And clocks go back Nov 4th so it will be before 5pm soon...

.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

I get up early to get my high schoolers off to school so will appreciate the morning light...pitch dark at 6:30am right now.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

we had plenty of cold air. What you’re looking for, continuous below normal temperatures, doesn’t exist anymore. Period.

This month will be above normal because we had a warm start, a warm finish, and a lot of normal to below normal temperatures in between. Hence your normal leaf out this year…

 

Not much in the way of below normal this month. There was a time in the past when a deep trough near the East Coast in October was colder. So another very late first freeze for the Northeast.

 

 

[psv88]

What a beautiful morning! Went down to the boat for a bit and it felt like a summer morning. 

[SACRUS]

 

70 off a low of 49.  Records today for several places expected.  Front comes through between 30/31 - chill down 11/1 - 11/4 then moderating back to normal / above. Back and forth cool/moderations into mid nov.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

10/25 

 

EWR: 77
PHL: 76
TEB: 75
ACY: 74
LGA: 74
New Brnswck: 74
BLM:  73
NYC: 72
TTN: 71
JFK: 70
ISP: 67

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 79 (1964)
NYC: 78 (1964) 
LGA: 76 (1963)


Lows:

 

EWR: 31 (1952)
NYC: 30 (1879)
LGA: 34 (1962)

 

Historical:

 

1859 - New York City had their earliest substantial snow of record as four inches blanketed the city. (David Ludlum)

 

1865: A hurricane sank the steamship USS Mobile off the Georgia coast. The wreck, laden with 20,000 gold coins, was found in 2003.

1919 - The temperature at Bismarck, ND, plunged to ten degrees below zero, the earliest subzero reading of record for the city, and a record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)

1926 - Barrow, AK, received a record fifteen inches of snow, and also established a 24 hour precipitation record of 1.00 inch which lasted until the 21st of July in 1987. (The Weather Channel)

 

1952: There have been thousands of weather reconnaissance and research flights into hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific since the mid-1940s. There have been several close calls, but only four flights have been lost. A B-29 Super-fortress flight into Super Typhoon Wilma 350 miles east of Leyte in the Philippines disappeared on this date. No trace was ever found of the plane or crew. In the last report, the flight was in the Super typhoon's strongest winds, which were around 160 mph.

1962 - A storm brought five to six inches of snow to Vermont and New Hampshire, with up to ten inches reported in the mountains. (The Weather Channel)

1983 - A heat wave was in progress over the Northern Rockies, with record highs of 81 degrees at Sheridan WY and Billings MT.(Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - Five cities in south central Texas reported record high temperatures for the date, including Corpus Christi and Del Rio with readings of 93 degrees. Laredo TX was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 98 degrees. Thunderstorms moving over the Lower Mississsippi Valley deluged Lake Charles LA with 2.70 inches of rain in one hour resulting in severe local flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms moving out of northern Texas spawned five tornadoes in Louisiana during the morning hours. The thunderstorms also produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jennings LA, and the driver of a vehicle was killed by a falling tree near Coushatta LA. Snow squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region produced heavy snow in western New York State, with 12 inches reported at Colden. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the north central U.S. Afternoon highs of 78 degrees at Alpena MI, 75 degrees at Duluth MN, 79 degrees at Fargo ND, 77 degrees at International Falls MN, 76 degrees at Marquette MI, 75 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI, and 80 degrees at Saint Cloud MN, were all the warmest of record for so late in the season. Morning lows of 63 degrees at Concordia KS and Omaha NE were the warmest of record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1997: An autumn snowstorm pummeled central and south-central Nebraska with record early season snows. Wind-driven snowfall amounts totaled as much as two feet by storms' end. Several highways were closed, including Interstate 80, as near-blizzard conditions developed. Once the snow subsided, the record early season snow totals were tallied. Guide Rock measured twenty-four inches of snow, Clay Center twenty-three inches, and Hastings seventeen inches. A fifty-mile wide swath of snow more than fifteen inches fell from near Alma to York. Amounts further north averaged from four to eight inches. The heavy, wet snow was responsible for many power outages in the area as tree limbs broke and fell on power lines. At one point, the town of Hardy had no power and could not be accessed by vehicles due to the snow. Numerous schools and businesses remained closed several days following the storm. Many highways, including Interstate 80, closed at the height of the storm. On Highway 136 east of Alma, road crews worked for ten hours carving through a ten-foot drift that covered the road. Record cold accompanied the snow as temperatures dropped to the single digits on the morning of the 26th.

1998: Hurricane Mitch, the second deadliest hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean, reached Category 5 strength on this day.

[the_other_guy]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not much in the way of below normal this month. There was a time in the past when a deep trough near the East Coast in October was colder. So another very late first freeze for the Northeast.

 

 

I understand, but you keep lumping us together with Northern New England. 

I don’t know when our first freeze will be in New York City, but we are not late at this point.

They are late. They are running +10. We aren’t.

there are two very different stories going on between northern New England and the mid Atlantic this October. One is running extremely warm. The other is about a degree above normal right now and cruising to 2°-3 above normal with these very warm days.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I understand, but you keep lumping us together with Northern New England. 

I don’t know when our first freeze will be in New York City, but we are not late at this point.

They are late. They are running +10. We aren’t.

there are two very different stories going on between northern New England and the mid Atlantic this October. One is running extremely warm. The other is about a degree above normal right now and cruising to 2°-3 above normal with these very warm days.

That just goes to show how even a few degrees above normal in our warmer climate is still top 10 warmth for our area. 

 

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2017	61.9	0
2	2021	61.2	0
3	2007	61.1	0
4	1990	60.9	0
5	1971	59.7	0
6	2023	58.6	6
7	1995	58.5	0
8	1963	58.3	0
9	2019	57.9	0
-	2013	57.9	0
-	2012	57.9	0
10	2016	57.5	0
-	2014	57.5	0
-	1984	57.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2017	61.5	0
2	1971	60.3	0
3	2007	60.1	0
4	2021	59.8	3
5	1963	58.5	0
6	1954	58.0	0
7	1995	57.9	10
8	1984	57.8	0
9	2023	57.7	6
10	1949	57.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	64.4	0
2	2017	63.8	0
3	2007	63.5	0
4	1971	63.1	0
5	1990	62.4	0
6	1984	62.2	0
7	2023	61.9	6
8	1949	61.6	0
9	1963	61.2	0
10	1995	61.0	0
-	1947	61.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	61.2	0
2	2017	61.1	0
3	2023	60.0	6
-	2007	60.0	0
4	2019	58.7	0
5	1949	58.1	0
6	2014	58.0	0
-	2012	58.0	2
7	1970	57.4	0
-	1954	57.4	0
8	2020	57.2	0
9	1968	57.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2017	58.5	0
2	2021	58.2	0
3	2007	58.0	0
4	1947	57.9	0
5	1971	57.4	0
6	1931	57.3	0
7	2023	56.9	6
8	1949	56.2	0
9	1932	55.9	2
10	1963	55.8	0
-	1946	55.8	0

 

 

[psv88]

Gorgeous 73 right now. 

[LoboLeader1]

80F here.