Eduardo Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 @LibertyBell I love your contributions here, but the multi-quote feature is a beautiful thing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Only to the extent that you can remain in the air conditioning and spend less time outside. Extreme heatwaves in the summer can be dangerous especially to the elderly. something I like about hot and dry weather is it's much easier to breathe and much lower air pollution (humidity traps vehicle exhaust particulate matter near the ground) and also the lower temps at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: something I like about hot and dry weather is it's much easier to breathe and much lower air pollution (the humidity traps vehicle exhaust particulate matter near the ground) and also the lower temps at night. Even though our rate of summer warming has been slower than the fall and winter, it still has come with a steep increase in the dew points. We are just lucky we haven’t had a summer version yet of December 2015. I believe we would need an extreme drought here to ever have a summer month approach +10. Portions of the Southern Plains approached +10 in July 2011. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Even though our rate of summer warming has been slower than the fall and winter, it still has come with a steep increase in the dew points. We are just lucky we haven’t had a summer version yet of December 2015. I believe we would need an extreme drought here to ever have a summer month approach +10. Portions of the Southern Plains approached +10 in July 2011. July 2010 felt really good, I went running in that dry heat and I remember people saying it didn't feel like it was above 100 during the big heatwave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: July 2010 felt really good, I went running in that dry heat and I remember people saying it didn't feel like it was above 100 during the big heatwave. I rode my bike on the LB boardwalk during the 100° and 75° dew point in July 1999. While I was much younger back then, I still got the pins and needles sensation from that 113 heat index. I actually enjoyed the 0° and 50 mph gusts on the boardwalk better in January 1985.Probably the best display of Arctic seasmoke I ever saw back in Long Beach with embedded steamnadoes. The beauty of the Long Beach boardwalk is that there is always somebody up there no matter how extreme the weather. There were people on the boardwalk 5 minutes before sections collapsed during Sandy. The Long Beach crew were some of the most adventurous people that I ever met. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Tomorrow through Tuesday will be chilly late autumnlike days. Some frost will be possible in areas outside New York City and Newark. However, by the middle of the week, temperatures will surge to above and much above normal levels. During the peak of the warmth, the temperature will likely reach 70° or above as far north as southern New England. Parts of the Middle Atlantic Region including Philadelphia could see the temperature top out in the middle and upper 70s. Baltimore and Washington, DC could reach 80°. Much cooler air could return to close out October. The recent guidance is notably warmer than had previously been the case. As a result, there is now a distinct possibility of a 60° October mean temperature in New York City. All said, October is on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -7.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.005 today. On October 20 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.353 (RMM). The October 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.278 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2° (2.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 10/23 EWR: 64 BLM: 64 ACY: 63 PHL: 63 New Brnswck: 63 JFK: 62 LGA: 62 TTN: 61 TEB: 61 ISP: 61 NYC: 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 3 hours ago, bluewave said: I rode my bike on the LB boardwalk during the 100° and 75° dew point in July 1999. While I was much younger back then, I still got the pins and needles sensation from that 113 heat index. I actually enjoyed the 0° and 50 mph gusts on the boardwalk better in January 1985.Probably the best display of Arctic seasmoke I ever saw back in Long Beach with embedded steamnadoes. The beauty of the Long Beach boardwalk is that there is always somebody up there no matter how extreme the weather. There were people on the boardwalk 5 minutes before sections collapsed during Sandy. The Long Beach crew were some of the most adventurous people that I ever met. Jan 1985 was the last time Long Beach went below zero wasn't it? Amazing to live near the ocean where it can both be below 0 and over 100 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 62 today. Down to 41 already, coldest of the season. Maybe 36 by morning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 39F here this AM, topped out at 60 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Overnight low of 38 here. Current temp 39 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 62degs.(55/70) or +8. EURO warmer than GFS? Month to date is 60.4[+1.1]. October should end at 60.8[+2.8]. Reached 64 here yesterday at 5pm. Today: 62-66, wind sw., m. sunny, 54 tomorrow AM. 51*(71%RH) here at 7am. 55* at 9am. 60* at Noon. 62* at 1pm. Reached 65* at 3pm. 64* at 5pm. 60* at 7pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Big temperature swings coming up. Near record 80° heat by the weekend. Then colder weather to start November with the first mid 30s of season in NYC. But the average lows are in the low 40s by that time so not too cold by historical standards. It will feel colder though compared to 80°. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Heat island in full affect this morning. 39 my low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 24, 2023 Author Share Posted October 24, 2023 Sunday still a decent chance for a period or two of rain per GEFS/GEPS (00z-06z/24 ensembles), but the steady EC-EPS keeps it north or extreme north edge of the NYC subforum. In the meantime, good time to garden cleanup..great week for the outdoors. 716A/24 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 27 minutes ago, lee59 said: Heat island in full affect this morning. 39 my low. Yeah, I finally moved outside the heat island influence and dropped to 41° for my coldest of the season so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 45 and 47 for the lows here yesterday and today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 39. First 30s of the season here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 38 for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 36 Muttontown & 39 Syosset this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 39 off a low of 38. Coldest day for the next 7. Warmup with ridge into the east peaking Wed (10/25) - Sat (10/28) with upper 70s and low 80s into the warm spots with enough sunshine, records possible Thu-Sat. 850s peaking >17c between Wed and Fri and again Sun (10/29) on a more southerly flow. Trough into the GL/MW pushes front through Mon (10/30) / Tue (10/31). Coldest air of the season and first frosts and freezes to open Nov. Looks to moderate by the 4th/5th back near above normal. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 83 (2001) NYC: 79 (2001) LGA: 80 (2001) Lows: EWR: 28 (1969) NYC: 31 (1969) LGA: 30 (1969) Historical: 1785 - A four day rain swelled the Merrimack River in New Hampshire and Massachusetts to the greatest height of record causing extensive damage to bridges and mills. (David Ludlum) 1878 - A hurricane produced widespread damage across North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. At Philadelphia PA, the hurricane was the worst of record. (David Ludlum) 1878: The Gale of 1878 was an intense Category 2 hurricane that was active between October 18 and October 25. It caused extensive damage from Cuba to New England. Believed to be the strongest storm to hit the Washington - Baltimore region since hurricane records began in 1851. 1937 - A snow squall in Buffalo NY tied up traffic in six inches of slush. (David Ludlum) 1947 - The Bar Harbor holocaust occurred in Maine when forest fires consumed homes and a medical research institute. The fires claimed 17 lives, and caused thirty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1951 - Sacramento, CA, reported a barometric pressure of 29.42 inches, to establish a record for October. (The Weather Channel) 1969 - Unseasonably cold air gripped the northeastern U.S. Lows of 10 degrees at Concord, NH, and 6 degrees at Albany NY established October records. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Snow fell across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight, with five inches reported at Poplar Lake MN and Gunflint Trail MN. Thunderstorm rains caused flash flooding in south central Arizona, with street flooding reported around Las Vegas NV. Strong northwesterly winds gusting to 50 mph downed some trees and power lines in western Pennsylvania and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure centered produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with six inches reported at Ironwood MI. Wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at State College PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A storm in the western U.S. produced up to three feet of snow in the mountains around Lake Tahoe, with 21 inches reported at Donner Summit. Thunderstorms in northern California produced 3.36 inches of rain at Redding to establish a 24 hour record for October, and bring their rainfall total for the month to a record 5.11 inches. Chiefly "Indian Summer" type weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s. Record highs included 74 degrees at International Falls MN, and 86 degrees at Yankton SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - Hurricane Wilma reached the U.S. coastline near Everglades City in Florida with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. The hurricane accelerated across south Florida and the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area, exiting the coast later the same day. There were 10 fatalities in Florida, and nearly 6 million people lost power, the most widespread power outage in Florida history. Preliminary estimates of insured losses in Florida were over $6 billion, while uninsured losses were over $12 billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I finally moved outside the heat island influence and dropped to 41° for my coldest of the season so far. Whole different world out here in S CT...inland it's even colder if you go just 5-7 miles.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 50 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Whole different world out here in S CT...inland it's even colder if you go just 5-7 miles.... It’s amazing that sometimes my drive to JFK it will jump 12 or more degrees. And it’s eye-opening that it probably isn’t healthy to live like that. What we are doing down there isn’t normal or natural. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Whole different world out here in S CT...inland it's even colder if you go just 5-7 miles.... I am very close to New Haven Tweed airport. So my thermometer reads very close to what the ASOS shows. The airport is actually in a lower dip from some small hills to the west. So I made it down to 41° while HVN was 40°. Not bad for a home set up vs expensive ASOS. It’s interesting how quickly the temperatures drop here once the sun goes down especially on good radiational cooling nights. I like to use the Bishops Orchard Wunderground site in Guilford for readings that are a little more inland from me. They were 38° this morning. They also make the best apple pies I have ever had if you are in the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Big temperature swings coming up. Near record 80° heat by the weekend. Then colder weather to start November with the first mid 30s of season in NYC. But the average lows are in the low 40s by that time so not too cold by historical standards. It will feel colder though compared to 80°. I can’t help but feel a bit dejected at how difficult is has become to sustain below-normal temperatures during our cold season. I’d be thrilled to be wrong, but I have a hunch that, even if it won’t be quite as bad this upcoming winter as it was last winter (how could it be?), we winter weather lovers are gonna be fighting an uphill battle once again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Whole different world out here in S CT...inland it's even colder if you go just 5-7 miles.... It’s amusing how significantly I can fake cold my way into impressive lows with how well I radiate down here at the northern edge of the pine lands. Not factoring last night I’ve already been down to 36 a couple times and have had frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Whole different world out here in S CT...inland it's even colder if you go just 5-7 miles.... I witnessed that one winter at Quinnipiac Law where New Haven was rain and Hamden was snow. Crazy gradient that way & white knuckle driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 Quick recovery from38-51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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