October 2023

[qg_omega]

8 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

well, you guys are a little crazy on this forum with this 4 days of 70s. Never mind that it’s freezing out right now.

I think this forum becomes an echo chamber sometimes were narratives get amplified to extremes

Record warmth is record warmth

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  65degs.(58/73) or +11.

Month to date is  60.7[+1.2].      Should be   61.8[+3.8] by the 31st.

Reached 59 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:  60-63, wind nw., m. sunny late, 50 tomorrow AM.

48*(68%RH) here at 7am.     54* at Noon.     56* at 1pm.      Reached 64* at 5pm.      57* at 9pm.

[IrishRob17]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s all about proportionality. Sure it feels chilly out there this morning. But the cold is nowhere near a record. Highs in the low 80s later this week is near the record. We would need lows in the 20s to set a record. That’s what people are saying. Several of our recent winters since 15-16 were near the warmest on record. But even a winter averaging around or over 40° or warmer feels chilly outside and you will still need a jacket on most days. 
 

Newark Area, NJ
Version: 18.2 (created 2023-09-05)
Period of record: 1893 through 2022DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)

10/25	31 in 1907	31 in 1903	33 in 1939+
10/26	31 in 1952	31 in 1936	31 in 1933+
10/27	27 in 1936	29 in 1976	29 in 1907
10/28	25 in 1936	27 in 1904	29 in 1976
10/29	29 in 1904	30 in 1965	30 in 1940
10/30	31 in 1952	31 in 1910	31 in 1902
10/31	27 in 1904	29 in 1975	30 in 1910+

 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1893-01-01 through 2023-10-22DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)

 

 

10/25	79 in 2001	79 in 1963	78 in 2021
10/26	79 in 1964	79 in 1963	78 in 1989+
10/27	81 in 1963	80 in 1947	78 in 1989
10/28	82 in 1984	81 in 1919	78 in 1989+
10/29	78 in 1971	78 in 1946	76 in 1989
10/30	82 in 1946	80 in 1961	80 in 1950
10/31	82 in 1946	79 in 1950	77 in 1945

Agreed, people just aren’t acclimated yet. Yesterday KMGJ had a high of 54, average is 60 so 6 degrees below the normal high.  Highs at the end of the week are looking to be at least 15 degrees above average. The low yesterday was 43 when the average is 38 so yesterday as a whole the day averaged a ‘whopping’ half of a degree below average. 

[bluewave]

The bottom line is that 70° Septembers and 60° Octobers have become more common. Same goes for 50° Novembers and 40° Decembers. In the old days we had the coldest Septembers which were closer to 60° and Octobers which were near 50°. The most extreme version of this was the 50° December 2015 which would still rank near the warmest on record for November. So our monthly temperatures continue to shift closer to places like Norfolk and DC. The good news for us is that we can adapt to a climate closer to Virginia. 

[the_other_guy]

44F in Southern Westchester this morning

[LoboLeader1]

44F here in HPN 

[qg_omega]

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

44F in Southern Westchester this morning

Normal low for this time of year

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Normal low for this time of year

sure is! keep that in mind

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s all about proportionality. Sure it feels chilly out there this morning. But the cold is nowhere near a record. Highs in the low 80s later this week is near the record. We would need lows in the 20s to set a record. That’s what people are saying. Several of our recent winters since 15-16 were near the warmest on record. But even a winter averaging around or over 40° or warmer feels chilly outside and you will still need a jacket on most days. 
 

Newark Area, NJ
Version: 18.2 (created 2023-09-05)
Period of record: 1893 through 2022DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)

10/25	31 in 1907	31 in 1903	33 in 1939+
10/26	31 in 1952	31 in 1936	31 in 1933+
10/27	27 in 1936	29 in 1976	29 in 1907
10/28	25 in 1936	27 in 1904	29 in 1976
10/29	29 in 1904	30 in 1965	30 in 1940
10/30	31 in 1952	31 in 1910	31 in 1902
10/31	27 in 1904	29 in 1975	30 in 1910+

 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1893-01-01 through 2023-10-22DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)

 

 

10/25	79 in 2001	79 in 1963	78 in 2021
10/26	79 in 1964	79 in 1963	78 in 1989+
10/27	81 in 1963	80 in 1947	78 in 1989
10/28	82 in 1984	81 in 1919	78 in 1989+
10/29	78 in 1971	78 in 1946	76 in 1989
10/30	82 in 1946	80 in 1961	80 in 1950
10/31	82 in 1946	79 in 1950	77 in 1945

but this is where the echo chamber comes in.

First it was the 70s. Then it was approaching 80 now it’s the low 80s and multiple days of it.

But there isn’t one commercial forecast anywhere saying that.

 

You were taking the warmest model on the warmest day in the warmest location and making it sound as if we have a string of four or five days of temperatures in the low 80s coming. 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

but this is where the echo chamber comes in.

First it was the 70s. Then it was approaching 80 now it’s the low 80s and multiple days of it.

But there isn’t one commercial forecast anywhere saying that.

 

You were taking the warmest model on the warmest day in the warmest location and making it sound as if we have a string of four or five days of temperatures in the low 80s coming. 

You said that not me. All I stated was that several models have high temperatures around 80° on the warmest days this week. Plus you have to remember long range official forecasts are more conservative since they don’t like to make big jumps from run to run. They like to be more gradual in increasing their high temperatures the closer we get. If there were any record lows in the 20s this week for around NYC I would be posting that also. So the echo chamber you mention is the actual pattern not that people are pointing it out.

[IrishRob17]

44 for the low at KMGJ, average is 38.

[Brian5671]

50 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

but this is where the echo chamber comes in.

First it was the 70s. Then it was approaching 80 now it’s the low 80s and multiple days of it.

But there isn’t one commercial forecast anywhere saying that.

 

You were taking the warmest model on the warmest day in the warmest location and making it sound as if we have a string of four or five days of temperatures in the low 80s coming. 

Warmth tends to overperform these days...granted the ground is saturated so that might dent it a bit...but how many times have we seen posts here "surprised" we outdid guidance by 3-5 degress?

[the_other_guy]

Its true. Warmth def over performs on sunny days in the new climate

[SACRUS]

 

54 and mostly sunny. Low of 45 last night.  A nice stretch of late season warmth coming up the next week peaking Wed (10/25) - Sat (10/28) with upper 70s and perhaps the warmer spots touching 80 with enough sun.  Record highs challenging 2001,1963).  Perhaps some stray showers Sun (10/29) 

Deep trough pushing into the GL/MW forces front east between 10/30 - 11/1. We'll see if can get some storms and wind/rain.

Behind the front a strong but in and out chill down to the coolest of the season - first frost and freezes likely 11/1 - 11/5. Beyond there ridge builds back heights into the east and moderation to and above normal 11/5 onward.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:87 (1947)
NYC:85 (1947)
LGA: 86 (1947)

Lows:

EWR: 30 (1997)
NYC: 32 (1969)
LGA: 32 (1969)

Historical:

 

1761 - A hurricane struck southeastern New England. It was the most violent in thirty years. Thousands of trees blocked roads in Massachsuetts and Rhode Island. (David Ludlum)

1843 - "Indian Summer" was routed by cold and snow that brought sleighing from the Poconos to Vermont. A foot of snow blanketed Haverhill NH and Newberry VT, and 18 to 24 inches were reported in some of the higher elevations. Snow stayed on the ground until the next spring. (22nd-23rd) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) (The Weather Channel)

 

1878: One of the most severe hurricanes to affect eastern Virginia in the latter half of the 19th century struck on October 23, 1878. This storm moved rapidly northward from the Bahamas on October 22nd and hit the North Carolina coast late that same day moving at a forward speed of 40 to 50 mph. The storm continued northward passing through east central Virginia, Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania. The barometric pressure fell to 28.78". The five minute sustained wind reached 84 mph at Cape Henry. During the heaviest part of the gale, the wind at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina registered 100 mph. The instrument itself has finally blown away and therefore no further record was made. 

 

1920: Famed research meteorologist Theodore Fujita, was born on this date in Kitakyushu City, Japan. Fujita, known as "Mr. Tornado" after developing the international standard for measuring tornado severity, also discovered microbursts.

 

1947: Fish fell from the sky in Marksville, LA. Thousands of fish fell from the sky in an area 1,000 feet long by 80 feet wide possibly due to a waterspout. 

1987 - Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. It marked the sixth record low of the month for Greer SC and Columbia SC, and the ninth of the month for Montgomery AL. Showers and thunderstorms deluged Corpus Christi TX with five inches of rain. Winnemucca NV reported their first measurable rain in ninety-two days, while Yakima WA reported a record 96 days in a row without measurable rainfall. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Denver, CO, reported their first freeze of the autumn, and Chicago, IL, reported their first snow. In Texas, afternoon highs of 93 degrees at Austin and San Antonio were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska brought rain and high winds to the Central Pacific Coast Region. High winds in Nevada gusted to 67 mph at Reno, and thunderstorms around Redding CA produced wind gusts to 66 mph. Locally heavy rains in the San Francisco area caused numerous mudslides, adding insult to injury for earthquake victims. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

Gorgeous day  - up to 63.  Full sun now and think temps will overperform on such clear days if they occur later this week. 

[North and West]

For this week's warmth later on, am I missing something regarding climate and is this not Indian Summer? Warmth and haze after the first frost? (not a denier, just asking, thanks be to carbon, et. al.)

Is it that the warmth is more intense versus forecasted than it used to be, and that's due to the warming background state? Thanks. Not a doctor. 

[MANDA]

Late week warmth is coming but still nice to see this.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, North and West said:

For this week's warmth later on, am I missing something regarding climate and is this not Indian Summer? Warmth and haze after the first frost? (not a denier, just asking, thanks be to carbon, et. al.)

Is it that the warmth is more intense versus forecasted than it used to be, and that's due to the warming background state? Thanks. Not a doctor. 

I guess we are fortunate that the summer temperatures aren’t warming as quickly as the fall and winter. It’s easier to adapt to a warmer fall and winter than summer. So I think the average person likes the milder falls and winters. It’s part of the reason that most of the migration in this country is away from colder climates to warmer ones. 
 

Northeast temperature increases since 1981 per decade

SEP…+1.0° per Decade

OCT…+0.9

NOV…+0.2

DEC…+1.0

JAN…+1.2

FEB….+0.3

MAR…+0.4

APR….+0.3

MAY….+0.4

JUN….+0.3

JUL….+0.6

AUG….+0.6

[North and West]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess we are fortunate that the summer temperatures aren’t warming as quickly as the fall and winter. It’s easier to adapt to a warmer fall and winter than summer. So I think the average person likes the milder falls and winters. It’s part of the reason that most of the migration in this country is away from colder climates to warmer ones. 
 

Northeast temperature increases since 1981 per decade

SEP…+1.0° per Decade

OCT…+0.9

NOV…+0.2

DEC…+1.0

JAN…+1.2

FEB….+0.3

MAR…+0.4

APR….+0.3

MAY….+0.4

JUN….+0.3

JUL….+0.6

AUG….+0.6

Thank you. I always like your analysis! I was just wondering if this specific thing this week is due to that, or is it the legalese... "it depends."

[TWCCraig]

NYC had its warmest coolest temperature to date for the season on record until this morning. Similar situation at ISP though we should drop below these temperatures tonight

NYC:

Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23	Missing Count
1	2023-10-23	48	1
-	1949-10-23	48	0
3	2021-10-23	47	0
-	2011-10-23	47	0
-	1903-10-23	47	1
6	2016-10-23	45	0
-	2013-10-23	45	0
-	2007-10-23	45	0
-	2005-10-23	45	0

ISP:

Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 23	Missing Count
1	2023-10-23	44	1
2	1967-10-23	43	0
3	2021-10-23	42	0
4	2017-10-23	40	0
-	2011-10-23	40	0

[lee59]

60 degree high here today. Would not be surprised to see patchy frost in cooler rural areas of Long Island.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Late week warmth is coming but still nice to see this.

Yup. Freeze should happen first few days of November 

[winterwarlock]

9 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

but this is where the echo chamber comes in.

First it was the 70s. Then it was approaching 80 now it’s the low 80s and multiple days of it.

But there isn’t one commercial forecast anywhere saying that.

 

You were taking the warmest model on the warmest day in the warmest location and making it sound as if we have a string of four or five days of temperatures in the low 80s coming. 

because as usual with these warmups in fall or in spring even the forecasters will play catch up as we get closer to the event...member how it was so suppose to be really cold on Sunday and Monday for highs and look what happened...24-48 hours away forecasters bumped those temps up....gone be warm

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The bottom line is that 70° Septembers and 60° Octobers have become more common. Same goes for 50° Novembers and 40° Decembers. In the old days we had the coldest Septembers which were closer to 60° and Octobers which were near 50°. The most extreme version of this was the 50° December 2015 which would still rank near the warmest on record for November. So our monthly temperatures continue to shift closer to places like Norfolk and DC. The good news for us is that we can adapt to a climate closer to Virginia. 

Think this is the last shot at 80 for the year?

We've hit 80 before in November (even mid November in 1993).

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

but this is where the echo chamber comes in.

First it was the 70s. Then it was approaching 80 now it’s the low 80s and multiple days of it.

But there isn’t one commercial forecast anywhere saying that.

 

You were taking the warmest model on the warmest day in the warmest location and making it sound as if we have a string of four or five days of temperatures in the low 80s coming. 

ABC and Lee Goldberg now have our highs at 77,77,78 for three days and say the models are playing catch up and lows of 58, 61 and 62

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

You said that not me. All I stated was that several models have high temperatures around 80° on the warmest days this week. Plus you have to remember long range official forecasts are more conservative since they don’t like to make big jumps from run to run. They like to be more gradual in increasing their high temperatures the closer we get. If there were any record lows in the 20s this week for around NYC I would be posting that also. So the echo chamber you mention is the actual pattern not that people are pointing it out.

Right this happens in the summer too

Not sure why people have an issue with temps near 80, it is still October.  Let's save on heating and enjoy the wonderful weather when it can't possibly snow.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:87 (1947)
NYC:85 (1947)
LGA: 86 (1947)

Lows:

EWR: 30 (1997)
NYC: 32 (1969)
LGA: 32 (1969)

Historical:

 

1761 - A hurricane struck southeastern New England. It was the most violent in thirty years. Thousands of trees blocked roads in Massachsuetts and Rhode Island. (David Ludlum)

1843 - "Indian Summer" was routed by cold and snow that brought sleighing from the Poconos to Vermont. A foot of snow blanketed Haverhill NH and Newberry VT, and 18 to 24 inches were reported in some of the higher elevations. Snow stayed on the ground until the next spring. (22nd-23rd) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) (The Weather Channel)

 

1878: One of the most severe hurricanes to affect eastern Virginia in the latter half of the 19th century struck on October 23, 1878. This storm moved rapidly northward from the Bahamas on October 22nd and hit the North Carolina coast late that same day moving at a forward speed of 40 to 50 mph. The storm continued northward passing through east central Virginia, Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania. The barometric pressure fell to 28.78". The five minute sustained wind reached 84 mph at Cape Henry. During the heaviest part of the gale, the wind at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina registered 100 mph. The instrument itself has finally blown away and therefore no further record was made. 

 

1920: Famed research meteorologist Theodore Fujita, was born on this date in Kitakyushu City, Japan. Fujita, known as "Mr. Tornado" after developing the international standard for measuring tornado severity, also discovered microbursts.

 

1947: Fish fell from the sky in Marksville, LA. Thousands of fish fell from the sky in an area 1,000 feet long by 80 feet wide possibly due to a waterspout. 

1987 - Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. It marked the sixth record low of the month for Greer SC and Columbia SC, and the ninth of the month for Montgomery AL. Showers and thunderstorms deluged Corpus Christi TX with five inches of rain. Winnemucca NV reported their first measurable rain in ninety-two days, while Yakima WA reported a record 96 days in a row without measurable rainfall. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Denver, CO, reported their first freeze of the autumn, and Chicago, IL, reported their first snow. In Texas, afternoon highs of 93 degrees at Austin and San Antonio were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska brought rain and high winds to the Central Pacific Coast Region. High winds in Nevada gusted to 67 mph at Reno, and thunderstorms around Redding CA produced wind gusts to 66 mph. Locally heavy rains in the San Francisco area caused numerous mudslides, adding insult to injury for earthquake victims. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

nice and we know what kind of a winter 1947-48 was ;-)

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I guess we are fortunate that the summer temperatures aren’t warming as quickly as the fall and winter. It’s easier to adapt to a warmer fall and winter than summer. So I think the average person likes the milder falls and winters. It’s part of the reason that most of the migration in this country is away from colder climates to warmer ones. 
 

Northeast temperature increases since 1981 per decade

SEP…+1.0° per Decade

OCT…+0.9

NOV…+0.2

DEC…+1.0

JAN…+1.2

FEB….+0.3

MAR…+0.4

APR….+0.3

MAY….+0.4

JUN….+0.3

JUL….+0.6

AUG….+0.6

no, a hotter and drier and less humid summer would be far preferable

 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

no, a hotter and drier and less humid summer would be far preferable

 

Only to the extent that you can remain in the air conditioning and spend less time outside. Extreme heatwaves in the summer can be dangerous especially to the elderly.