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October 2023


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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I would take a negative epo plus positive PNA  over a negative nao. 

Why can't we have all three? I think what happens with the EPO will be the determining factor for our Winter with the regards to how much snow we get. There should be plenty of storm chances with the strong Nino But will there be enough cold air for it to be frozen?

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Periods of rain are likely overnight. Showers will continue into tomorrow across the region before tapering off from west to east.

Afterward, the weekend into early next week will likely see its coolest weather so far this fall. Frost will be possible in areas outside New York City and Newark. Temperatures will surge to above and perhaps much above normal levels by the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around October 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -22.56 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.723 today.

On October 17 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.229 (RMM). The October 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.346 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.0° (1.1° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, binbisso said:

Why can't we have all three? I think what happens with the EPO will be the determining factor for our Winter with the regards to how much snow we get. There should be plenty of storm chances with the strong Nino But will there be enough cold air for it to be frozen?

Yes all 3

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I liked the 17-18 winter into spring record snowfall much better than 18-19 and 19-20 following the record cold in November. 
 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1893-01-01 through 2023-10-19

Lowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

 

11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 2004 27 in 1914
11/11 24 in 2017 25 in 1956 25 in 1933
11/12 25 in 2019 28 in 2017 28 in 1904+
11/13 22 in 2019 24 in 1986 25 in 1920+
11/14 18 in 1905 21 in 1986 24 in 2019
11/15 18 in 1933 21 in 1942 21 in 1905
11/16 15 in 1933 20 in 1967 22 in 1996+
11/17 18 in 1933 21 in 1980 23 in 1900
11/18 19 in 1936 21 in 1959 21 in 1904
11/19 19 in 1936 21 in 2014 24 in 1903
11/20 21 in 1984 21 in 1894 22 in 1901
11/21 18 in 1987 21 in 1903 22 in 1910
11/22 17 in 2018 19 in 1987 22 in 1949
11/23 13 in 2018 21 in 1932 22 in 1949

 

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Surprised that there isn’t more chatter about tonight into tomorrow if you follow the latest Upton disco 

 

Deep low pres is looking increasingly likely for Sat, with the
models coming into agreement with the 12Z cycle.

The 12Z NAM has a 981 low over Cape Cod at 21Z Sat, the GFS a
980 low over Montauk at 18Z, and the ECMWF a 983 low near
Nantucket at 18Z.

These solns indicate rapid deepening invof the cwa on Sat, with
locally hvy rainfall thru at least the mrng, and increasing
winds thru the day. Although the exact track and intensity is
uncertain based on the model spread, peak wind gusts around 40
mph seem likely, particularly LI, and 1-2 inches of rain where
the main band sets up nw of the low.

The possibility exists for stronger winds gusting in excess of
50 mph if the model trends hold. Winds were increased above
model guidance in the grids. Peak winds over land may be
limited in the eve, especially inland, by the cooling bl. LI
should remain gusty due to the warm waters.
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48 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Surprised that there isn’t more chatter about tonight into tomorrow if you follow the latest Upton disco 

 

Deep low pres is looking increasingly likely for Sat, with the
models coming into agreement with the 12Z cycle.

The 12Z NAM has a 981 low over Cape Cod at 21Z Sat, the GFS a
980 low over Montauk at 18Z, and the ECMWF a 983 low near
Nantucket at 18Z.

These solns indicate rapid deepening invof the cwa on Sat, with
locally hvy rainfall thru at least the mrng, and increasing
winds thru the day. Although the exact track and intensity is
uncertain based on the model spread, peak wind gusts around 40
mph seem likely, particularly LI, and 1-2 inches of rain where
the main band sets up nw of the low.

The possibility exists for stronger winds gusting in excess of
50 mph if the model trends hold. Winds were increased above
model guidance in the grids. Peak winds over land may be
limited in the eve, especially inland, by the cooling bl. LI
should remain gusty due to the warm waters.

HRRR keeps the big rains to our north

1697900400-Oe5O98GtDm8.png

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The next 8 days are averaging  61degs.(54/68) or +6.

1697846400-LYPNzyaZw9k.png

Month to date is  61.2[+1.3].      Should be  61.1[+2.6] by the 29th.

Reached 64 here yesterday at 1pm.

Today:  Steady T near 60, wind nw., cloudy-Rain till 2pm, 51 tomorrow AM.

61*(99%RH) here at 7am, raining---P is 992mb.     59* at 9am.    58* at 10am.    59* at noon.      63* at 3pm.     Reached 65* at 4:30pm.       62* at 5pm.

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Yet again?: Next weekend (28-29) from two days ago continues to shape up with a frontal boundary in the area along with low pressure and a chance of rain. Modeling variable on cold/warm rain, timing-duration?? but I think we're edging toward another period of rain sometime next weekend. No guarantee but I am looking for this occurrence. 

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