doncat Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Up to 1.10" here on si with heavy batch that just moved thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Picked up 1.50" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Nice to see these cold shots Courtesy of Orh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice to see these cold shots Courtesy of Orh Yup. We are also losing the negative PNA next week. I wonder if it's in response to the rapidly rising PDO? Old run New run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 It's also nice to have a negative EPO. Would be nice if we can get a few negative EPO periods This Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, binbisso said: Yup. We are also losing the negative PNA next week. I wonder if it's in response to the rapidly rising PDO? Old run New run Quite possible Great news that the PDO is rising 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Just now, binbisso said: It's also nice to have a negative EPO. Would be nice if we can get a few negative EPO periods This Winter. I would take a negative epo plus positive PNA over a negative nao. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I would take a negative epo plus positive PNA over a negative nao. Why can't we have all three? I think what happens with the EPO will be the determining factor for our Winter with the regards to how much snow we get. There should be plenty of storm chances with the strong Nino But will there be enough cold air for it to be frozen? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice to see these cold shots Courtesy of Orh Let’s get past December 1st. Then we start talking. We have had some serious fall cold shots the last few years followed by awful winters 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: and several days of potential record warmth before that Something for everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Periods of rain are likely overnight. Showers will continue into tomorrow across the region before tapering off from west to east. Afterward, the weekend into early next week will likely see its coolest weather so far this fall. Frost will be possible in areas outside New York City and Newark. Temperatures will surge to above and perhaps much above normal levels by the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around October 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -22.56 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.723 today. On October 17 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.229 (RMM). The October 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.346 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.0° (1.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 1 hour ago, binbisso said: Why can't we have all three? I think what happens with the EPO will be the determining factor for our Winter with the regards to how much snow we get. There should be plenty of storm chances with the strong Nino But will there be enough cold air for it to be frozen? Yes all 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s get past December 1st. Then we start talking. We have had some serious fall cold shots the last few years followed by awful winters Yep remember some of those cold Novembers and then a ridge showed up 12/1? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 I liked the 17-18 winter into spring record snowfall much better than 18-19 and 19-20 following the record cold in November. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1893-01-01 through 2023-10-19 Lowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 2004 27 in 1914 11/11 24 in 2017 25 in 1956 25 in 1933 11/12 25 in 2019 28 in 2017 28 in 1904+ 11/13 22 in 2019 24 in 1986 25 in 1920+ 11/14 18 in 1905 21 in 1986 24 in 2019 11/15 18 in 1933 21 in 1942 21 in 1905 11/16 15 in 1933 20 in 1967 22 in 1996+ 11/17 18 in 1933 21 in 1980 23 in 1900 11/18 19 in 1936 21 in 1959 21 in 1904 11/19 19 in 1936 21 in 2014 24 in 1903 11/20 21 in 1984 21 in 1894 22 in 1901 11/21 18 in 1987 21 in 1903 22 in 1910 11/22 17 in 2018 19 in 1987 22 in 1949 11/23 13 in 2018 21 in 1932 22 in 1949 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 0.25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Surprised that there isn’t more chatter about tonight into tomorrow if you follow the latest Upton disco Deep low pres is looking increasingly likely for Sat, with the models coming into agreement with the 12Z cycle. The 12Z NAM has a 981 low over Cape Cod at 21Z Sat, the GFS a 980 low over Montauk at 18Z, and the ECMWF a 983 low near Nantucket at 18Z. These solns indicate rapid deepening invof the cwa on Sat, with locally hvy rainfall thru at least the mrng, and increasing winds thru the day. Although the exact track and intensity is uncertain based on the model spread, peak wind gusts around 40 mph seem likely, particularly LI, and 1-2 inches of rain where the main band sets up nw of the low. The possibility exists for stronger winds gusting in excess of 50 mph if the model trends hold. Winds were increased above model guidance in the grids. Peak winds over land may be limited in the eve, especially inland, by the cooling bl. LI should remain gusty due to the warm waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 48 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Surprised that there isn’t more chatter about tonight into tomorrow if you follow the latest Upton disco Deep low pres is looking increasingly likely for Sat, with the models coming into agreement with the 12Z cycle. The 12Z NAM has a 981 low over Cape Cod at 21Z Sat, the GFS a 980 low over Montauk at 18Z, and the ECMWF a 983 low near Nantucket at 18Z. These solns indicate rapid deepening invof the cwa on Sat, with locally hvy rainfall thru at least the mrng, and increasing winds thru the day. Although the exact track and intensity is uncertain based on the model spread, peak wind gusts around 40 mph seem likely, particularly LI, and 1-2 inches of rain where the main band sets up nw of the low. The possibility exists for stronger winds gusting in excess of 50 mph if the model trends hold. Winds were increased above model guidance in the grids. Peak winds over land may be limited in the eve, especially inland, by the cooling bl. LI should remain gusty due to the warm waters. HRRR keeps the big rains to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: HRRR keeps the big rains to our north Got it. Wind component too though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Like fourth round of monsoonal rains again. Had some thunder and lightning around 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 1.51" for Friday, temp split of 63/55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(54/68) or +6. Month to date is 61.2[+1.3]. Should be 61.1[+2.6] by the 29th. Reached 64 here yesterday at 1pm. Today: Steady T near 60, wind nw., cloudy-Rain till 2pm, 51 tomorrow AM. 61*(99%RH) here at 7am, raining---P is 992mb. 59* at 9am. 58* at 10am. 59* at noon. 63* at 3pm. Reached 65* at 4:30pm. 62* at 5pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Wouldn't be surprised to see 80 later this week 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Relative to the means, the warm up next week will be more impressive than the cool down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2023 Author Share Posted October 21, 2023 Yet again?: Next weekend (28-29) from two days ago continues to shape up with a frontal boundary in the area along with low pressure and a chance of rain. Modeling variable on cold/warm rain, timing-duration?? but I think we're edging toward another period of rain sometime next weekend. No guarantee but I am looking for this occurrence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Nailed it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Heavy rain here It's beautiful sleeping with the window open when it's raining . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 .45 inch of rain from first part of the event, more today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Pouring here in lynbrook. Sucks because I’m supposed to do a project with my side business this weekend. Im going to have to work twice as hard tomorrow. Weekend curse continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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