October 2023

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, MANDA said:

Snooze fest right now.  Temperatures are pleasant with chilly nights but overall the pattern at least for now is boring.

nothing wrong with clear skies and no rain for at least 2 weeks-- we need the break

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

We could have this ...it was PHLs biggest snowfall of the season

wow how come this didnt make it up to NYC?

the only one I remember in October is snowtober lol

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Hope that's not a sign of things to come-nothing worse than a great pattern and storm track only to see 35 and rain

it would work in January and February.

I have a feeling we have a 09-10 type winter incoming

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

It can definitely be an issue early in the season like 12-05-20 with a storm bombing out to our SE and no cold. Things got better a few weeks after that. But BGM was favored with the 40” jackpot since the low was so tucked in near ACY.

exactly what I was thinking

January and February will be great in this pattern

forget the tucking, this will be like 09-10 with the strong el nino coming in

You can already see the further offshore track setting up with the way tropical storms have been way offshore this year.

This happened in many of our previous great winters and the tropical seasons prior to them like 1995

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Its October 

didnt you see snow clouds yesterday lol

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

We got some flurries here. Didn't snow much the rest of the season. Was probably the worst until last winter came along.

great, the inverse of 2019-20 when it didn't snow all season and we had flurries in May lol

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, FPizz said:

2011 October snow I assume

the GOAT of October

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  59degs.(53/66) or +4.

Month to date is  61.2[+1.1].      Should be  60.6[+2.0] by the 28th.

Reached 64 here at 3pm yesterday.

Today: 62-65, wind se., RAIN 1"+ by tomorrow PM, 59 tomorrow AM.

60*(95%RH) here at 7am, drizzle.     Reached 64* at 1pm.      62* at 5pm.

 

[MJO812]

Raining here again

[Stormlover74]

Pouring at ewr waiting to take off

[Snowlover11]

shocker got some rain on friday

[gravitylover]

.13 so far today. 

[Rtd208]

Moderate to heavy rain falling.

Picked up 0.57" of rain so far today.

[Brian5671]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

more salt on the roads than snow lol

The best is the state DOT trucks with plows down on wet roads-sparks flying-your tax dollars at work!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

shocker got some rain on friday

at least Sunday looks to be sunny

[thunderbolt]

How is El Niño shaping up?

While referencing a 30-year sea level record, @NASA scientists are tracking changes in ocean height. 

This year’s El Niño seems modest compared to extreme events in 1997 and 2015, but it could still intensify. 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

How is El Niño shaping up?

While referencing a 30-year sea level record, @NASA scientists are tracking changes in ocean height. 

This year’s El Niño seems modest compared to extreme events in 1997 and 2015, but it could still intensify. 

 

we are talking about this in the el nino thread

[psv88]

@LibertyBell

multi quote!! Please use the multi quote function 

[SACRUS]

 

62/61 with some light rain. 0.15 in the bucker from early morning moderate rains.  Rain should be scattered and mainly light today and end tomorrow morning.  Cloudy and cool this sat and sun (10/22).  5 day Warmup  Tue (10/24) - Sat (10/28) some 70s.  Cooldown 10/29 then stronger chill by 11/1 and open of November looks quick.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

[cleetussnow]

55 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

How is El Niño shaping up?

While referencing a 30-year sea level record, @NASA scientists are tracking changes in ocean height. 

This year’s El Niño seems modest compared to extreme events in 1997 and 2015, but it could still intensify. 

 

Seems a little silly they would mention sea level rise in 30 year terms as though it is some new phenomenon.  It's been rising for 4,000 years at a rate of 1 foot for every 100 hundred years. Below is the measurement from the Battery, downtown Manhattan.  The measurement from 1920 to 2020 is right on the money.  

  

[MJO812]

It's great to see the MJO looping in 8 and 1. Hopefully that continues .

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Seems a little silly they would mention sea level rise in 30 year terms as though it is some new phenomenon.  It's been rising for 4,000 years at a rate of 1 foot for every 100 hundred years. Below is the measurement from the Battery, downtown Manhattan.  The measurement from 1920 to 2020 is right on the money.  

 

They are talking about localized sea level rise with the El Nino in the Tropical Pacific from the warmer SSTs not the ongoing global sea level rise.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3286/international-ocean-satellite-monitors-how-el-nino-is-shaping-up/#:~:text=By October 1997 and 2015,the 1997 and 2015 events.

Not all El Niño events are created equal. Their impacts vary widely, and satellites like the U.S.-European Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich help anticipate those impacts on a global scale by tracking changes in sea surface height in the Pacific Ocean.

Water expands as it warms, so sea levels tend to be higher in places with warmer water. El Niños are characterized by higher-than-normal sea levels and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. These conditions can then propagate poleward along the western coasts of the Americas. El Niños can bring wetter conditions to the U.S. Southwest and drought to regions in the western Pacific, including Indonesia. This year’s El Niño is still developing, but researchers are looking to the recent past for clues as to how it is shaping up.

There have been two extreme El Niño events in the past 30 years: the first from 1997 to 1998 and the second from 2015 to 2016. Both caused shifts in global air and ocean temperatures, atmospheric wind and rainfall patterns, and sea level. The maps above show sea levels in the Pacific Ocean during early October of 1997, 2015, and 2023, with higher-than-average ocean heights in red and white, and lower-than-average heights in blue and purple. Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich captured the 2023 data, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite collected data for the 1997 image, and Jason-2 gathered data for the 2015 map.

By October 1997 and 2015, large areas of the central and eastern Pacific had sea levels more than 7 inches (18 centimeters) higher than normal. This year, sea levels are about 2 or 3 inches (5 to 8 centimeters) higher than average and over a smaller area compared to the 1997 and 2015 events. Both of the past El Niños reached peak strength in late November or early December, so this year’s event may still intensify.

“Every El Niño is a little bit different,” said Josh Willis, Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich project scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “This one seems modest compared to the big events, but it could still give us a wet winter here in the Southwest U.S. if conditions are right.”

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 80 (2021)
NYC: 80 (1969)
LGA: 80 (2021)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1974)
NYC: 31 (1974)
LGA: 32 (1972)

Historical:

 

1770 - An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years. (David Ludlum)

1983 - Remnants of Pacific Hurricane Tico caused extensive flooding in central and south central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City set daily rainfall records with 1.45 inch on the 19th, and 6.28 inches on the 20th. (17th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Cold arctic air invaded the Upper Midwest, and squalls in the Lake Superior snowbelt produced heavy snow in eastern Ashland County and northern Iron County of Wisconsin. Totals ranged up to 18 inches at Mellen. In the western U.S., the record high of 69 degrees at Seattle WA was their twenty-fifth of the year, their highest number of record highs for any given year. Bakersfield CA reported a record 146 days in a row with daily highs 80 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. In California, afternoon highs of 96 degrees at Redding and Red Bluff were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Forty-nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the south central and southeastern U.S. Lows of 32 degrees at Lake Charles LA and 42 degrees at Lakeland FL were records for October, and Little Rock AR reported their earliest freeze of record. Snow blanketed the higher elevations of Georgia and the Carolinas. Melbourne FL dipped to 47 degrees shortly before midnight to surpass the record low established that morning. Showers and thunderstorms brought heavy rain to parts of the northeastern U.S. Autumn leaves on the ground clogged drains and ditches causing flooding. Up to 4.10 inches of rain soaked southern Vermont in three days. Flood waters washed 600 feet of railroad track, resulting in a train derailment. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

[Rmine1]

Mod/heavy rain in Brightwaters. 63

[Allsnow]

On 10/19/2023 at 10:06 AM, forkyfork said:

disappearing 

Ensembles all got colder for Halloween and the start of the month

[Rmine1]

I think I’ve already exceeded forecast totals. Very heavy rain, and a little thunder to boot 

[Allsnow]

Euro op has a very chilly Halloween 

[forkyfork]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro op has a very chilly Halloween 

and several days of potential record warmth before that

[mob1]

A bit of a positive bust today for rain here. Most models had about half an inch through today, I'm at 1.22" with a sizeable band of moderate to heavy rain moving in.