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October 2023


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12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hope that's not a sign of things to come-nothing worse than a great pattern and storm track only to see 35 and rain

It can definitely be an issue early in the season like 12-05-20 with a storm bombing out to our SE and no cold. Things got better a few weeks after that. But BGM was favored with the 40” jackpot since the low was so tucked in near ACY.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Hope that's not a sign of things to come-nothing worse than a great pattern and storm track only to see 35 and rain

Im not sure what everyone is talking about. Outside of first week, we have been a sea of 60s and 50s in day and 40s at night. What exactly are you looking for in early/mid October?

Reading these posts you would think we are in an endless stream of 70s and 80s

 

 

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6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Im not sure what everyone is talking about. Outside of first week, we have been a sea of 60s and 50s in day and 40s at night. What exactly are you looking for in early/mid October?

Reading these posts you would think we are in an endless stream of 70s and 80s

 

 

And October and November 97 were below average so careful what you wish for

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6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Im not sure what everyone is talking about. Outside of first week, we have been a sea of 60s and 50s in day and 40s at night. What exactly are you looking for in early/mid October?

Reading these posts you would think we are in an endless stream of 70s and 80s

 

 

Didn't mean it that way, just was noting that it seems like we've had some good blocking last winter but no cold air showed up...

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

schools close here for wet roads and slush on the grass....silly

Because one kid slipping on the school sidewalk and getting hurt will cost the school district a lot of money. I worked in schools for 31 years; our most common response to lawyers was " how much?"

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29 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Because one kid slipping on the school sidewalk and getting hurt will cost the school district a lot of money. I worked in schools for 31 years; our most common response to lawyers was " how much?"

Damn lawyers…;-)

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Because one kid slipping on the school sidewalk and getting hurt will cost the school district a lot of money. I worked in schools for 31 years; our most common response to lawyers was " how much?"

I don't really buy that...lawyers were around in the 70's and 80's.  We've just become soft...

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A strong cold front coupled with an offshore storm will bring periods of rain tomorrow into Saturday. A general 0.50" to 1.00" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts.

Afterward, the weekend into early next week will likely see its coolest weather so far this fall. Frost will be possible in areas outside New York City and Newark. The strong cold shot will then be followed by a potentially impressive warmup.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around October 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -15.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.403 today.

On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.346 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.486 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7° (0.8° above normal).

 

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7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I don't really buy that...lawyers were around in the 70's and 80's.  We've just become soft...

I worked there,I'm telling you what I saw. And I worked in more than one district. Also, employees were prone to sue when they slipped as well. Every walkway has to be cleaned. Or you are liable. Case closed. 

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50 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I worked there,I'm telling you what I saw. And I worked in more than one district. Also, employees were prone to sue when they slipped as well. Every walkway has to be cleaned. Or you are liable. Case closed. 

You can’t sue your employer if you get hurt at work…you get workers comp. So that cannot be correct

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