October 2023

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  56degs.(50/62) or Normal.

Month to date is  61.6[+1.2].       Should be  59.8[+0.8] by the 26th.

Reached 66 here yesterday at 4:30pm.

Today:   64-66, wind variable, increasing sun, 53 tomorrow AM 

57*(78%RH) here at 7am.{56 earlier}.      59* at 9am.   Reached  64* at Noon.       63* at 3pm.

[bluewave]

Big temperature swing next week from lows the 30s and 40s to highs in the 70s. 

 

[Allsnow]

Ensembles showing first decent cold shot around Halloween as the trough moves out the west 

[kat5hurricane]

14 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, I agree. I have to believe the cosmic scales are in our favor right now after whiffing historically bad on loaded patterns in both Dec and March of last winter. Even if the CONUS floods with warmth, I have to believe we’ll have favorable enough windows to get something going. 

I’m still hanging on to 1/29/22 because that was such a great event down my ways (16 inches at my front porch), but I’m also up north a lot (work just west of the city and have close friends in Stanhope and Montague) and just miss what should be our usual wintry vibe in peak winter. Obviously we don’t often have sustained pack, but just the threat of realistic events every other week or so, and temperatures that remind one of being in meteorological winter instead of protracted, second fall. 

And I playfully disagree with @bluewave, as wonderful as the 2016 HECS was, I actually preferred the sustained wintry vibe of 2014 but I’m one who prefers sustained cold. We had such a core grouping of insane winters from 2009-2016. 

Fingers crossed we get the kind of winter that offers something for everyone, except warmth lovers of course! They get quite enough of that already .

'14-'15 was my all time favorite winter so I'm picking up what you're throwing down. Endless snowpack from mid Feb to mid March with weekly 4-8 inch pack refreshers and powdery snow at that and January delivered as well. That winter was almost as rare as last winter at this latitude, you just don't get consistent snowpack winters or virtual shutouts around here.

[Brian5671]

Euro and CMC show a sharp western cutoff to the rain this Saturday

$10,430 - $14,90

[BxEngine]

Brian pays $10k for sharp cutoffs. Seems suspect. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said:

'14-'15 was my all time favorite winter so I'm picking up what you're throwing down. Endless snowpack from mid Feb to mid March with weekly 4-8 inch pack refreshers and powdery snow at that and January delivered as well. That winter was almost as rare as last winter at this latitude, you just don't get consistent snowpack winters or virtual shutouts around here.

It was a great year for the extended snow cover fans. But 95-96 still wasn’t able to get challenged.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1	Missing Count
1	1995-1996	62	0
2	2004-2005	55	0
3	1977-1978	53	1
4	2014-2015	48	0
5	1993-1994	46	3
6	2010-2011	45	0
7	2013-2014	39	0
-	2000-2001	39	23
8	1964-1965	37	1
9	1976-1977	36	0
10	1963-1964	35	7

[Volcanic Winter]

@bluewave

What made 95-96 such a crazy winter, anything anomalous? I know it was a Niña and one of those highly productive Niña winters, but I honestly don’t know much of the specifics from that season. 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@bluewave

What made 95-96 such a crazy winter, anything anomalous? I know it was a Niña and one of those highly productive Niña winters, but I honestly don’t know much of the specifics from that season. 

I think the Nina wasn’t able to couple and there was a hangover from the 94-95 Nino since the subtropical jet was so juiced (1/96 blizzard). It was also an East based Nina from what I know which is better for our winters. Last years Niña was a central based one which is usually much worse. 

[the_other_guy]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I think the Nina wasn’t able to couple and there was a hangover from the 94-95 Nino since the subtropical jet was so juiced (1/96 blizzard). It was also an East based Nina from what I know which is better for our winters. Last years Niña was a central based one which is usually much worse. 

Our 11 inch 94-95 El Nino season :/

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Our 11 inch 94-95 El Nino season :/

yeah that was terrible outside of one big storm that ended as some rain here...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah that was terrible outside of one big storm that ended as some rain here...

I vividly remember that storm, I was out shoveling snow for money with my friends and it started pouring. We were all soaked shoveling slush and near hypothermic. 95/96 I only really remember the blizzard as there were so many other events it’s all a blur. I miss Alberta clippers too, especially cold ones with 3 or 4” of powder. I think those are a thing of the past. 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah that was terrible outside of one big storm that ended as some rain here...

Then it got real cold after that and despite the shitty winter it stuck around for about two weeks

[the_other_guy]

43 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I vividly remember that storm, I was out shoveling snow for money with my friends and it started pouring. We were all soaked shoveling slush and near hypothermic. 95/96 I only really remember the blizzard as there were so many other events it’s all a blur. I miss Alberta clippers too, especially cold ones with 3 or 4” of powder. I think those are a thing of the past. 

93-94 was better imo. we will never see a winter like that again. I don’t think we saw the grass in Queens for most of that winter. And by winter I mean mid Dec thru early March 

 

And those Nyc schools never closed! I remember getting dismissed in one storm where the snow was up to my shins. Surprise 7 incher that went wild 

[weatherpruf]

21 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2018-19 had 20" and 2021-22 had 18"... below average, but not by much. 2020-21 had near 40", and then two duds in 19-20 and 22-23. that averages out to 17", which is definitely below normal but it's nothing that hasn't happened before

1997-98 to 2001-02 averaged 15", 1986-87 to 1991-92 averaged 17", and even a stretch in the 1930s from 1926-27 to 1931-32 averaged 13.5!"

so yeah, it's been a quiet stretch, but this has happened before, and we've also come out of the most prolific stretch of winters in history from 2002-03 through 2020-21. people just got spoiled and forget how it is sometimes

My snowblower has a pokeweed bush growing out of it.....and i don't expect to have to remove it this year. If people in the general public could actually read, they'd see that experts are calling for more snow in our area, as opposed to last year; that's a very low bar that is almost sure to be met. In general they don't say we should have a lot of snow and in fact, seem to be indicating below average, which has been my lifetime experience during most El Ninos. Somewhat below average would be a lot more snow to folks in the area, who have now had two years of little snow and will have forgotten totally how to drive in it or how much milk or eggs to buy.....( hint, you don't need to buy that much ).

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro and CMC show a sharp western cutoff to the rain this Saturday

$10,430 - $14,90

And actually a lot of the models are showing most of the rain friday now instead of saturday. It could be a decent soaking friday afternoon into friday night but then a mostly dry saturday. 

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Ensembles showing first decent cold shot around Halloween as the trough moves out the west 

And before then with our minor cool shot early next week, it looks as if our area could get down to mid-upper 30s monday night. 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And before then with our minor cool shot early next week, it looks as if our area could get down to mid-upper 30s monday night. 

Color's really starting to pop too

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

93-94 was better imo. we will never see a winter like that again. I don’t think we saw the grass in Queens for most of that winter. And by winter I mean mid Dec thru early March 

 

And those Nyc schools never closed! I remember getting dismissed in one storm where the snow was up to my shins. Surprise 7 incher that went wild 

I was teaching then. Brutal.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@bluewave

What made 95-96 such a crazy winter, anything anomalous? I know it was a Niña and one of those highly productive Niña winters, but I honestly don’t know much of the specifics from that season. 

Perfect balance of blocking near Greenland and Alaska with a great SW ridge near California. It was the only time a station on Long Island had a 90” season. It might have been a 100 to 200 year event if we had snowfall data going back that far on Long Island. It was as close to a perfect winter and snowfall season that our area has had in modern times. A great KU,  high number of days with snow cover, and wall to wall cold from November into April but not overpowering. On a scale of 100 for ranking a winter, it would probably be the only year in my lifetime that I would grade a 95 or higher A+. I would probably rank the 10-11 and 77-78 seasons a close 2nd around 90. 
 

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/monthlysnowfall.htm

[Brian5671]

I do remember the 1 month breakdown after the Blizzard of 1/6/96...next storm was snow to rain after about 4-6 inches fell, then it was 4 cutters to Buffalo and temps in the 50's...snowpack was completely wiped out...pattern reloaded early Feb into early April and the rest is history..

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Color's really starting to pop too

Yeah it's starting to look nice. Tomorrow I'm going up to Sussex County to check out the color and do some hiking at Swartswood Park. 

[Stormlover74]

31 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it's starting to look nice. Tomorrow I'm going up to Sussex County to check out the color and do some hiking at Swartswood Park. 

Yeah it should be close to peak when I'm in Asheville this weekend 

[Cfa]

The sky looks rather ominous in Long Island City.

[coastalplainsnowman]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was a great year for the extended snow cover fans. But 95-96 still wasn’t able to get challenged.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1	Missing Count
1	1995-1996	62	0
2	2004-2005	55	0
3	1977-1978	53	1
4	2014-2015	48	0
5	1993-1994	46	3
6	2010-2011	45	0
7	2013-2014	39	0
-	2000-2001	39	23
8	1964-1965	37	1
9	1976-1977	36	0
10	1963-1964	35	7

It's amazing how memories get distorted over time.  I realize of course that 95/96 was far snowier than 93/94, but my memory of 93/94 is of nearly continuous snowpack, even in the street itself on some neglected side streets.  95/96 I think of like what was discussed yesterday - big snows but with warmups in between.   I would have figured 95/96, even with all the snows, would have had half the days of 93/94.  Wow.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

It's amazing how memories get distorted over time.  I realize of course that 95/96 was far snowier than 93/94, but my memory of 93/94 is of nearly continuous snowpack, even in the street itself on some neglected side streets.  95/96 I think of like what was discussed yesterday - big snows but with warmups in between.   I would have figured 95/96, even with all the snows, would have had half the days of 93/94.  Wow.

While we have had much bigger snowstorms than any individual event in 93-94, the January ice storm still stands as our benchmark event along with January 1978. It was the last time areas west of NYC dropped from -15 to -30. Jan 94 was Allentown’s version of Feb 34 in NYC. It was the last time downtown Philly dropped to -5. Also the coldest temperature on record for Sussex County, NJ at -29.

 

Monthly Data for January 1994 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
PA	BLUE MARSH LAKE	COOP	-29
NJ	SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	-29
NJ	NEWTON	COOP	-26
PA	PALMERTON	COOP	-23
PA	BUCKSVILLE	COOP	-23
PA	BELTZVILLE DAM	COOP	-22
PA	READING 4 NNW	COOP	-20
NJ	SUSSEX 8 NNW	COOP	-20
PA	HAMBURG	COOP	-19
PA	SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE	COOP	-18
NJ	LONG VALLEY	COOP	-18
PA	GRATERFORD 1 E	COOP	-17
NJ	BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	-17
PA	ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-15
NJ	FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	-15

 

Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	-15	0
2	1961	-12	0
-	1934	-12	7
3	1984	-11	0
-	1942	-11	0
4	1954	-10	1

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1934	-15	0
2	1917	-13	0
3	1943	-8	0
4	1933	-6	0
-	1918	-6	0
-	1899	-6	0
-	1882	-6	0
-	1880	-6	1

 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE, PA - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	-5	17
2	2015	1	9
3	2014	3	2

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	-29	137
2	1961	-25	1
3	1912	-24	9
4	1967	-23	6
5	1981	-22	1
-	1968	-22	40

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

The sky looks rather ominous in Long Island City.

Snow sky

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, steve392 said:

Loving it.  This morning was coldest morning i've felt at work at 44 degrees.  Loved it.

its going to warm up nicely after that

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

While we have had much bigger snowstorms than any individual event in 93-94, the January ice storm still stands as our benchmark event along with January 1978. It was the last time areas west of NYC dropped from -15 to -30. Jan 94 was Allentown’s version of Feb 34 in NYC. It was the last time downtown Philly dropped to -5. Also the coldest temperature on record for Sussex County, NJ at -29.

 

Monthly Data for January 1994 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
PA	BLUE MARSH LAKE	COOP	-29
NJ	SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	-29
NJ	NEWTON	COOP	-26
PA	PALMERTON	COOP	-23
PA	BUCKSVILLE	COOP	-23
PA	BELTZVILLE DAM	COOP	-22
PA	READING 4 NNW	COOP	-20
NJ	SUSSEX 8 NNW	COOP	-20
PA	HAMBURG	COOP	-19
PA	SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE	COOP	-18
NJ	LONG VALLEY	COOP	-18
PA	GRATERFORD 1 E	COOP	-17
NJ	BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	-17
PA	ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-15
NJ	FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	-15

 

Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	-15	0
2	1961	-12	0
-	1934	-12	7
3	1984	-11	0
-	1942	-11	0
4	1954	-10	1

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1934	-15	0
2	1917	-13	0
3	1943	-8	0
4	1933	-6	0
-	1918	-6	0
-	1899	-6	0
-	1882	-6	0
-	1880	-6	1

 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE, PA - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	-5	17
2	2015	1	9
3	2014	3	2

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	-29	137
2	1961	-25	1
3	1912	-24	9
4	1967	-23	6
5	1981	-22	1
-	1968	-22	40

Sure but Jan 2016 was far superior for both Allentown AND JFK, which is rare to get such 30"+ totals over  a large area.

I did love the Jan 1994 ice storm.  It was historic here.  Ice totals over 2" on the south shore near JFK? Does anyone keep ice storm totals?

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

It's amazing how memories get distorted over time.  I realize of course that 95/96 was far snowier than 93/94, but my memory of 93/94 is of nearly continuous snowpack, even in the street itself on some neglected side streets.  95/96 I think of like what was discussed yesterday - big snows but with warmups in between.   I would have figured 95/96, even with all the snows, would have had half the days of 93/94.  Wow.

95-96 produced much bigger and all snow storms but it had the 3 week thaw in the middle of January

93-94 was much more mixed events with a historic ice storm thrown in.  The big thundersnow event in Feb was extremely memorable though

But no real HECS snowstorms in 93-94