October 2023

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2009-10 would have still been a blockbuster winter lmao that early Feb stretch would have been up here instead of in DC

one bad winter last year and everyone is losing their damn minds. it's a shame

True but the last few have not been great 18-19, 19-20 duds 20-21 was great,   21-22 had January but other than that meh....

[brooklynwx99]

also, Oct-Nov of all moderate to super Ninos since 1980 have had a strong signal for a trough digging into the SW US and no blocking to speak of. so save the pessimism for now 

 

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2009-10 would have still been a blockbuster winter lmao that early Feb stretch would have been up here instead of in DC

one bad winter last year and everyone is losing their damn minds. it's a shame

yup.  2 bad years out of the last 4 really warped peoples minds. 2010-2020 might have averaged the most snow for a decade we've had (or if not really close).  Around here I averaged a hair under 36" for the decade and the long term 100+ year average is like 28".

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

True but the last few have not been great 18-19, 19-20 duds 20-21 was great,   21-22 had January but other than that meh....

2018-19 had 20" and 2021-22 had 18"... below average, but not by much. 2020-21 had near 40", and then two duds in 19-20 and 22-23. that averages out to 17", which is definitely below normal but it's nothing that hasn't happened before

1997-98 to 2001-02 averaged 15", 1986-87 to 1991-92 averaged 17", and even a stretch in the 1930s from 1926-27 to 1931-32 averaged 13.5!"

so yeah, it's been a quiet stretch, but this has happened before, and we've also come out of the most prolific stretch of winters in history from 2002-03 through 2020-21. people just got spoiled and forget how it is sometimes

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

True but the last few have not been great 18-19, 19-20 duds 20-21 was great,   21-22 had January but other than that meh....

We’ve been due for a stretch of lousy winters since the bonanzas prior to 18-19. The late 90s were horrible, 80s into the 90s etc. No way NYC won’t have to pay for numerous 40”+ winters, and indices like the PDO inevitably flip back to unfavorable with the West getting the bonanzas. Hopefully this winter’s better but if not I don’t see it as our inevitable drop to Richmond/Norfolk type winters every year. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2018-19 had 20" and 2021-22 had 18"... below average, but not by much. 2020-21 had near 40", and then two duds in 19-20 and 22-23. that averages out to 17", which is definitely below normal but it's nothing that hasn't happened before

1997-98 to 2001-02 averaged 15", 1986-87 to 1991-92 averaged 17", and even a stretch in the 1930s from 1926-27 to 1931-32 averaged 13.5!"

so yeah, it's been a quiet stretch, but this has happened before, and we've also come out of the most prolific stretch of winters in history from 2002-03 through 2020-21. people just got spoiled and forget how it is sometimes

Exactly.  Incredible stretch there.

[steve392]

Another gorgeous day off.  Had a brief downpour yesterday around dinner time.  Cold temps and rein causing fungus in my yard. 

 

 

 

Not looking forward to this weekend. 

[WX-PA]

29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

and there's literally no cold ANYWHERE verbatim of course... Looks like an 01-02 or 11-12 pattern there

CFS a few days ago had a cold winter..It changes everyday! lol. CFS 2 last month had a torch for October..I mean why do we look at this garbage?..There is no way any model has any clue after 2 weeks and that's a stretch.I mean we have been on this site long enough to get down in freakin October.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

CFS a few days ago had a cold winter..It changes everyday! lol. CFS 2 last month had a torch for October..I mean why do we look at this garbage?..There is no way any model has any clue after 2 weeks and that's a stretch.I mean we have been on this site long enough to get down in freakin October.

That's why I say take it for what it's worth...I wouldn't read too much into ANY long term modeling...

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

+0.5-1 against the highest normals ever. 

My biggest issue with the moving averages is how it normalizes our steadily increasing temperatures, even amongst us weather enthusiasts. I’m guilty of it too at times. 

The difference to pre-industrial really is staggering. I’ve actually read some intelligent opinions from scientists I follow that felt the Little Ice Age was potentially the beginning of the end of our current interstadial as we would otherwise be beginning the slide towards the next stadial (glacial, towards a glacial maxima). Just some speculation, but was interesting nonetheless. 
 

I know the LIA cause was traditionally considered multifaceted,  but I’ve seen a lot of blame on volcanism which I disagree with. There’s always large volcanism lurking behind every century, there was nothing anomalously large during that period. Even Tambora’s happen 2-3 times per millenia. We know pretty well that volcanic forcing doesn’t last beyond 2-4 years at the max, perhaps a super eruption can sustain a decade of surface temp alteration. Regardless there had to be other feedback mechanisms in place, such as a cooling of the North Atlantic. 
 

Yikes I really drifted lol. What was my point again? Sorry lol. 

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

A lot of our largest snow storms have been during el ninos.   I used to have a nice chart downloaded on my phone that listed our historic storms in each category (nino vs nina vs neutral).

Does a 30 inch snow storm mean much if it is surrounded by 50 and 60 degree days for the other 3 months of winter? Because many of those big El Nino storms have been that type of winter.

2015-16 was a disaster of a winter. One epic snowstorm doesnt eliminate a Dec of 70s and the latest freeze ever.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

12 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

My biggest issue with the moving averages is how it normalizes our steadily increasing temperatures, even amongst us weather enthusiasts. I’m guilty of it too at times. 

The difference to pre-industrial really is staggering. I’ve actually read some intelligent opinions from scientists I follow that felt the Little Ice Age was potentially the beginning of the end of our current interstadial as we would otherwise be beginning the slide towards the next stadial (glacial, towards a glacial maxima). Just some speculation, but was interesting nonetheless. 
 

I know the LIA cause was traditionally considered multifaceted,  but I’ve seen a lot of blame on volcanism which I disagree with. There’s always large volcanism lurking behind every century, there was nothing anomalously large during that period. Even Tambora’s happen 2-3 times per millenia. We know pretty well that volcanic forcing doesn’t last beyond 2-4 years at the max, perhaps a super eruption can sustain a decade of surface temp alteration. Regardless there had to be other feedback mechanisms in place, such as a cooling of the North Atlantic. 
 

Yikes I really drifted lol. What was my point again? Sorry lol. 

Its scary warm hahaha

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Does a 30 inch snow storm mean much if it is surrounded by 50 and 60 degree days for the other 3 months of winter? Because many of those big El Nino storms have been that type of winter.

2015-16 was a disaster of a winter. One epic snowstorm doesnt eliminate a Dec of 70s and the latest freeze ever.

 

 

I think the 30" storm is still meaningful... a HECS is a HECS, no matter when

[MJO812]

Weekend getting wetter

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Does a 30 inch snow storm mean much if it is surrounded by 50 and 60 degree days for the other 3 months of winter? Because many of those big El Nino storms have been that type of winter.

2015-16 was a disaster of a winter. One epic snowstorm doesnt eliminate a Dec of 70s and the latest freeze ever.

 

 

Yes because it's the most memorable event of the winter 

[Rjay]

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Does a 30 inch snow storm mean much if it is surrounded by 50 and 60 degree days for the other 3 months of winter? Because many of those big El Nino storms have been that type of winter.

2015-16 was a disaster of a winter. One epic snowstorm doesnt eliminate a Dec of 70s and the latest freeze ever.

 

 

I'm not really a snowpack guy so I guess it depends on who you ask.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Does a 30 inch snow storm mean much if it is surrounded by 50 and 60 degree days for the other 3 months of winter? Because many of those big El Nino storms have been that type of winter.

2015-16 was a disaster of a winter. One epic snowstorm doesnt eliminate a Dec of 70s and the latest freeze ever.

 

 

I guess it’s all a matter of personal opinion. While the 15-16 winter was one of the warmest of all-time, it did have the greatest NYC snowstorm of all-time. This was followed by another double digit snowfall in early February on Long Island. Plus NYC had its first subzero reading since 1994. So I actually enjoyed that winter more than 14-15. I am not that big a fan of extended snow cover if it’s from a bunch of smaller to moderate events. The one event that stands out from the 14-15 winter is the late January storm missing east vs model forecasts. But I did enjoy the extended snow cover  in 10-11 which was the result of three great KU events. 

[kat5hurricane]

8 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Already feeling those hints of frustration creeping in. It’s not a rational thing, it’s October, more PTSD. 

Not expecting a blockbuster winter but would like to see something approaching average for many of us. But if I have to look at maps of troughs dumping to Baja all winter again I’m going to run and jump into the nearest lava lake. I’m sure we’ll see periods with mixed Niño forcing, but still. 

Think in terms of "It can't be worse than last winter" and you'll feel better because, historically, it's almost impossible to duplicate a winter that bad.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yes because it's the most memorable event of the winter 

Id argue Dec 15 was the most memorable event of winter 15-16

[Volcanic Winter]

15 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Think in terms of "It can't be worse than last winter" and you'll feel better because, historically, it's almost impossible to duplicate a winter that bad.

Yeah, I agree. I have to believe the cosmic scales are in our favor right now after whiffing historically bad on loaded patterns in both Dec and March of last winter. Even if the CONUS floods with warmth, I have to believe we’ll have favorable enough windows to get something going. 

I’m still hanging on to 1/29/22 because that was such a great event down my ways (16 inches at my front porch), but I’m also up north a lot (work just west of the city and have close friends in Stanhope and Montague) and just miss what should be our usual wintry vibe in peak winter. Obviously we don’t often have sustained pack, but just the threat of realistic events every other week or so, and temperatures that remind one of being in meteorological winter instead of protracted, second fall. 

And I playfully disagree with @bluewave, as wonderful as the 2016 HECS was, I actually preferred the sustained wintry vibe of 2014 but I’m one who prefers sustained cold. We had such a core grouping of insane winters from 2009-2016. 

Fingers crossed we get the kind of winter that offers something for everyone, except warmth lovers of course! They get quite enough of that already .

[Allsnow]

I’ll take a winter like 13/14 or 14/15 with numerous events over one KU in a mild winter that melts in 2 days 

[donsutherland1]

Unseasonably cool conditions will persist through tomorrow. Afterward, readings could reach near normal to somewhat above normal levels. A strong cold front could bring periods of rain during the weekend. Saturday could feature the most rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around October 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -5.55 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.264 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal).

On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.351 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.163 (RMM).

 

[cleetussnow]

I like when a storm transforms the landscape.  So when we have nothing but brown and gray ground, and suddenly a storm comes in and drops 6 inches, it looks amazing out in short order.  So I don’t need pack.  It makes a 6 inch storm more exciting when there is nothing on the ground vs. when you already have a few inches down.  I’ll take it, but I don't need it.  
 

Level 99 big dogs are awesome of course, but honestly one or 2 days later when the snow has blown off the trees and the streets are cleared and black (or white with salt), I don’t care about the snow storm anymore.  The model watching is over, the radar watching is over, the nowcasting is over, the snow falling is over, the HWO and warnings are off…Its like all the fun party guests left already.  Now, the snowpack guy can stay as long as he wants, but, you know, its just him now.  

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

I guess it’s all a matter of personal opinion. While the 15-16 winter was one of the warmest of all-time, it did have the greatest NYC snowstorm of all-time. This was followed by another double digit snowfall in early February on Long Island. Plus NYC had its first subzero reading since 1994. So I actually enjoyed that winter more than 14-15. I am not that big a fan of extended snow cover if it’s from a bunch of smaller to moderate events. The one event that stands out from the 14-15 winter is the late January storm missing east vs model forecasts. But I did enjoy the extended snow cover  in 10-11 which was the result of three great KU events. 

Feb 2021 was also a great snow cover month here. In mid Feb I had close to 18” on the ground after the Super Bowl storm. Would’ve loved to see the Feb 2011 snow cover where I live now. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

4 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Does a 30 inch snow storm mean much if it is surrounded by 50 and 60 degree days for the other 3 months of winter? Because many of those big El Nino storms have been that type of winter.

2015-16 was a disaster of a winter. One epic snowstorm doesnt eliminate a Dec of 70s and the latest freeze ever.

 

 

 

A 30" snowstorm will always mean a lot, but I get your larger point.

The reason is that most of us here don't know how to live in the moment and enjoy the damn snow while it is happening.

Before the snow has started falling, we look ahead and say "it'll be melted in two days."

Hell, during awesome banding we don't go out and enjoy it - we watch the banding *in the basement, on radar* and are sad *during the banding* because it's going to end in 20 minutes or whatever.

The above might be a bit too autobiographical, but I know I'm not the only one.  You know who you are.

Anyway, that's why I (we?)  don't like big storms sandwiched between warmth.

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

And I playfully disagree with @bluewave, as wonderful as the 2016 HECS was, I actually preferred the sustained wintry vibe of 2014 but I’m one who prefers sustained cold. We had such a core grouping of insane winters from 2009-2016. 

Yeah, we all have our own criteria for what makes a great winter. I weigh more heavily being near the jackpot of a high ranking KU event than extended snow cover or cold. I enjoyed the January 2016 event more than any of the multiple smaller events in 13-14 and 14-15. I don’t mind if a big snowfall begins melting right after the event. One thing left I haven’t seen is 10” of snow in one hour. Any winter that produces that event will be an A in my ratings regardless of what the rest of the winter does. Same goes for any winter that produces one single 40-50” event which I haven’t experienced yet.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

 

A 30" snowstorm will always mean a lot, but I get your larger point.

The reason is that most of us here don't know how to live in the moment and enjoy the damn snow while it is happening.

Before the snow has started falling, we look ahead and say "it'll be melted in two days."

Hell, during awesome banding we don't go out and enjoy it - we watch the banding *in the basement, on radar* and are sad *during the banding* because it's going to end in 20 minutes or whatever.

The above might be a bit too autobiographical, but I know I'm not the only one.  You know who you are.

Anyway, that's why I (we?)  don't like big storms sandwiched between warmth.

 

Believe me, if I was here for the Jan 2016 epic storm, I would enjoyed it in that moment.  

I lived in TX at the time and came back in the Feb 2016 frigid cold wave and saw the last small piles of it. The day of the storm in Austin it was 78 and sunny. 

[MJO812]

Halloween night looks cold

[lee59]

Early next week could bring first frost and or freeze of the season for some in our area.

[steve392]

6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Early next week could bring first frost and or freeze of the season for some in our area.

Loving it.  This morning was coldest morning i've felt at work at 44 degrees.  Loved it.