CIK62 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(52/64) or +2. Month to date is 62.4[+1.6]. Should be 60.9[+1.7] by the 24th. Reached 62 yesterday at 4pm. Today: 59-62, wind nw., increasing clouds, 50 tomorrow AM. 48*(78%RH) here at 7am. 52* at 9am. 54* at 10am. 57* at Noon. 64* at 3pm. 65* at 3:30pm. 67* at 4pm. 64* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 Overnight low of 42 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 9 hours ago, Wannabehippie said: I buy the Old Farmer's Almanac yearly. Mainly for the articles on gardening, etc. Some really interesting stuff in there. I treat the weather prediction part as entertainment. Fun to see how wrong they are, then follow up the following year when they claim an "80% accuracy". I'm sure they stagger precipitation events based on climatological statistics. In winter for the greater NYC area, they can say, "Rain or Snow along th coast, and snow likely inland and in the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 10 hours ago, Wannabehippie said: I buy the Old Farmer's Almanac yearly. Mainly for the articles on gardening, etc. Some really interesting stuff in there. I treat the weather prediction part as entertainment. Fun to see how wrong they are, then follow up the following year when they claim an "80% accuracy". No one would buy it if it said "warm and snowless" They are the JB of weather LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No one would buy it if it said "warm and snowless" They are the JB of weather LOL Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 i would buy it and frame the pages 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 43, coldest morning of the fall so far. Tuesday morning maybe our next chance to drop below 40, then we wait another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 42 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2023 Author Share Posted October 16, 2023 Been away but I see max axis rainfall in the NYC subforum was further N than the Canadian-RGEM, and that the Canadian will have been wrong on Tue-Wed storm. Mental notes for myself. Added yesterdays two day CoCoRaHs if it wasn't previously posted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: No one would buy it if it said "warm and snowless" They are the JB of weather LOL 40 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i would buy it and frame the pages Good morning everyone. Well at least, now, we know what it will take to get a combined back and front loaded productive winter. Stay well all, as always ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 More rain this weekend? Is Saturday a washout? Got my annual Halloween party Saturday afternoon. Trying to figure if I'm gonna need to rent a big tent. Central Monmouth county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 17 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: More rain this weekend? Is Saturday a washout? Got my annual Halloween party Saturday afternoon. Trying to figure if I'm gonna need to rent a big tent. Central Monmouth county Gfs wraps it up by early afernoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 oops 2 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs wraps it up by early afernoon Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 Gorgeous day today. Partly cloudy and 65 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 41 minutes ago, forkyfork said: oops You can see how far off the 348 hour "forecast" was. I guess 2 weeks is asking a bit much. Of course 11 day prog hasn't confirmed yet, either. Doubtful if we ever get to that type of accuracy. Anybody guessing if the model needs more information, less information, or the right information? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: oops More cold dumping into the west….same old story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: More cold dumping into the west….same old story Hopefully it doesn't continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 Raining here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 Nice day, 62 degree high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: More cold dumping into the west….same old story Same old model bias from recent years with the day 11-15 forecasts missing the ridge axis near the Aleutians and trough in the West. New run Old run 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 When are the 80s returning Do we have a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: More cold dumping into the west….same old story So much for a Nino pattern 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 Topped out at 61F here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Unseasonably cool conditions will persist through at least the middle of the week. Afterward, readings could reach near normal to somewhat above normal levels. A strong cold front could bring periods of rain during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around October 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was not available today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.941 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). On October 12 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.295 (RMM). The October 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.298 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: So much for a Nino pattern Don't we want a high pressure over the aleutians this time of year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(52/63) or +2. Month to date is 62.0[+1.4]. Should be 60.6[+1.6] by the 25th. Reached 68 at 4pm yesterday. Today: 61-65, wind n., p. cloudy, 52 tomorrow AM. 53*(81%RH) here at 7am. 60* at Noon. Reached 66* at 5pm. 60* at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Down to 47F here this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 45 this morning. Looks like rain Saturday, wind Sunday. Early next week probably coldest temperature of the season for some and mild at the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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