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October 2023


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1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

blustery cold morning here in the city.. i should have worn gloves my hands were so cold...

I went out without a jacket. You must be affected by the colder, winter temps than me. Temps in 50s don't seem too bad to me. But then again, if temps get in to mid 60s I probably will be wearing shorts.

 

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34 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I went out without a jacket. You must be affected by the colder, winter temps than me. Temps in 50s don't seem too bad to me. But then again, if temps get in to mid 60s I probably will be wearing shorts.

 

well as you get older in life things do not work like they use to....

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1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

I went out without a jacket. You must be affected by the colder, winter temps than me. Temps in 50s don't seem too bad to me. But then again, if temps get in to mid 60s I probably will be wearing shorts.

 

 

45 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

well as you get older in life things do not work like they use to....

Good afternoon W b h/ nycw. Be blessed or not by the internal thermostat. Most of what doesn’t work for me is no longer necessary. Stay well, remain healthy, as always ….

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3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

nah i see the doc often nothing wrong with my thyroid... the weather is cold for october not use to it...being a strong el nino i expected mid 80's in october..

I walked the dog with a leather jacket on this morning because it was 48 and there was a stiff breeze. Plenty cold for October. And much colder than any October weather we have had around here for a while. No need to defend yourself against childishness

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4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I walked the dog with a leather jacket on this morning because it was 48 and there was a stiff breeze. Plenty cold for October. And much colder than any October weather we have had around here for a while. No need to defend yourself against childishness

What? It was 50 this morning. In 2016 it was 37 on this date. Stop. 

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4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

NNE struggling to get to 32 at night 

The warm mins at Caribou are more impressive than the maxes. They are running +7.6 on the maxes and +10.0 on the mins. Still haven’t had their first freeze which is very late for them. 

 

 

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Unseasonably cool conditions will persist through at least the middle of the week. Afterward, readings could reach near normal to somewhat above normal levels. A strong cold front could bring showers and a period of rain during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around September 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -11.73 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.865 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sure but the farmers almanacs forecasts are crap

I buy the Old Farmer's Almanac yearly. Mainly for the articles on gardening, etc. Some really interesting stuff in there. I treat the weather prediction part as entertainment. Fun to see how wrong they are, then follow up the following year when they claim an "80% accuracy".

 

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