October 2023

[SACRUS]

1979: The lowest barometric pressure ever recorded occurs in the center of Typhoon Tip on this day. A fly reconnaissance mission recorded the low pressure of 870 hPa or 25.69 inHg. Typhoon Tip was the most extensive tropical cyclone on record with a wind diameter of 1380 miles at its peak.

 

[Stormlover74]

42 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks, did know that, but was more looking for hourly output from the globals and NAM/RDPS, even though the higher resolution convection allowing versions of those (NAM3K and HRDPS) are available hourly, as you noted - but I've observed that sometimes the lower resolution versions do better with non-convective systems like this one.  And TT does have the HRDPS, which is hourly. 

Would also be nice to have IBM's/TWC's GRAF model output somewhere, which supposedly has very good accuracy scores, but I haven't seen it available anywhere (some media outlets use it though) to the public.  

Looks like there's going to be an initial batch of rain in the morning that models take north of our area before the main activity gets here early afternoon 

[Allsnow]

31 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like there's going to be an initial batch of rain in the morning that models take north of our area before the main activity gets here early afternoon 

.75-1.00 for our area 

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

.75-1.00 for our area 

Yeah. Could be a bit more 

Nam screws us with .25"...heavier amounts north and south

[Gravity Wave]

I think we'll take our chances with strong blocking at the risk of some 2/5/10 or 1/13/19 style misses. You'd have to think one storm would get far enough north to slam us.

[bluewave]

This is actually a pretty strong blocking pattern for a October.

[Volcanic Winter]

Is it the blocking / pattern overall or the temperatures during Niño octobers that has some correlation with DJF?

Following the Niño thread there was some hope a BN - east October would increase chances of BN in DJF, though from a temperature perspective that definitely seems unlikely now for most in the east. 

But if it’s more pattern related, blocking + eastern trough could be a good sign? 

Also @bluewave I followed your posts in the Niño thread about the sharp -PDO, most are calling for a more typical Dec Niño warmth, but couldn’t the -PDO if it stays considerably negative help Dec act more like a Niña and be cooler? 

I’m still a novice with a lot of this so be gentle .

 

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is actually a pretty strong blocking pattern for an October.

Any correlation to a return in the winter? 

[uofmiami]

12Z euro FWIW:

[the_other_guy]

i’m a believer in not talking about the pattern that’s supposed to be but looking at the pattern that’s in front of you. I like this pattern. I like the blocking. I like the storm track. I like the storm frequency. I like the below normal temperatures. I like the active tropics.

 

And I like the fact that for the first time in a long time it looks like we’re marching towards winter with at or below normal temperatures.

so I’m bullish on winter this year. i’ll go all in if I see this pattern in November

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Ugh

 

[Allsnow]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ugh

 

Next weekend looks like a wash again 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Next weekend looks like a wash again 

Maybe Saturday 12/23 will be a big snowstorm

And of course all the models are already on board 8 days out

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe Saturday 12/23 will be a big snowstorm

And of course all the models are already on board 8 days out

Peak coming soon 

 

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Any correlation to a return in the winter? 

The south based blocking down into Northern New England has been very impressive since the summer.

 

 

[Dark Star]

54 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

i’m a believer in not talking about the pattern that’s supposed to be but looking at the pattern that’s in front of you. I like this pattern. I like the blocking. I like the storm track. I like the storm frequency. I like the below normal temperatures. I like the active tropics.

 

And I like the fact that for the first time in a long time it looks like we’re marching towards winter with at or below normal temperatures.

so I’m bullish on winter this year. i’ll go all in if I see this pattern in November

 

 

 

It seems the moderate to long range forecasts have been somewhat elusive?

[winterwx21]

51 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Next weekend looks like a wash again 

It's almost becoming comical at this point. Dry during the week and then rain on saturday. Obviously next weekend is a long way out, but knowing how our luck has been going the Euro will probably be right. Would be nice if we could get a day like today on a saturday for a change. It's spectacular fall weather today. 

[Stormlover74]

Nams all over the place

[winterwx21]

44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Peak coming soon 

 

 

Too bad this season isn't expected to be as nice for fall color. Constantly saturated soil isn't a good thing for that. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nams all over the place

The usual lack minute ticks north....

[donsutherland1]

A moderate to locally significant rain and wind storm is likely tomorrow into Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall appears likely across much of the area. Northern parts of the region could see much lower amounts.

The storm will be followed by another round of unseasonably cool air. Unseasonably cool conditions will likely persist through at least the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around September 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -4.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.514 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal).

 

[lee59]

Temperature dropping fast 52. Might have been my coldest of the season if the clouds did not move in.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  58degs.(53/63) or Normal.

Month to date is  63.7[+2.5].      Should be about  61.5[+1.5] by the 22nd.

Reached 66 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  Decreasing T: 55>50, wind ne.-breezy late, Rain (1") 10am to 6am tomorrow.

57*(55%RH) here at 7am.     57* at 9am.      53* at Noon.     51* at 2pm.     52* at 6pm.

 

[bluewave]

Pretty good ensemble support for another storm next weekend.

 

[steve392]

Large blob of rain moving east right into nnj.  Temps dropped more.  50 degree's but feels colder.

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty good ensemble support for another storm next weekend.

 

This storm looks to affect more people. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Pretty good ensemble support for another storm next weekend.

 

@psv88

[Stormlover74]

Models did a pretty good job depicting the heavier rain to the north for the initial batch before the whole area gets in on the action later

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models did a pretty good job depicting the heavier rain to the north for the initial batch before the whole area gets in on the action later

Usually happens with these systems-there’s an initial overrunning batch on the north end where there’s a secondary max of heavy amounts. North of that’s the brick wall and north of Hartford probably gets zilch. 

[SACRUS]

 

52/ 46 cloudy rain moving in north and coming  east.  Another weekend washer.  Although Sunday looks to clear out.  May be time to work Fri - Tue and take off Wed/Thu.  Week looks near normal not much in the way of rain till Sat (10/21).  Hints of warmup around 10/28 - 10/31 period.