MJO812 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Yep 0z cut back 6z didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 16 hours ago, Tatamy said: Storm totals for the 10/2011 event Map is off. I lived in Bayside at time. We got a wet dusting. Dating someone in Park Slope and they had a full snow storm. The line was around the Van Wyck. East of that not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: Meh not a big deal it is for people's whose livlihoods depend on nice fall weather.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 10, 2023 Author Share Posted October 10, 2023 From myself: a fun look if it was winter... not enough qpf here for me to think topic, at least not yet. Have a day! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it is for people's whose livlihoods depend on nice fall weather.... it really is. I think about all our farmland on the north fork. Those aren’t even real farms aren’t anymore. They are tourist farms that depend on the fall season for making their year. and with a lot of the new mandates that New York State has passed for farm workers, there was an article about how much harder it is to even contemplate running an agricultural business on Long Island. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 56 of a low of 43. Some clouds and spotty showers into EPA drying up. 4 nice days warming Wed and Thu into the low 70s in the warmer spots. Trough dig starting Sat (10/14) / Sun (10/15) with first rain and storm chances. Overall unsettled period 10/15 - 10/22 with trough into the EC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 8 hours ago, gravitylover said: My wife has a handmade business and does craft fairs 2 or 3 weekends a month. Well, her income has been reduced by 2/3 since June. That hurts. My customers tend to do ~75% of their business on Friday and Saturday, as expected that's taken a solid hit so my income has also been fkd up. At this point it's too late to make any of that back as the outdoor season is winding down so for us at least, it's not just being disappointed. The fishing industry ( sport fishing ) has taken a huge hit as well. even nicer days involved an uncomfortable swell, and fishing has sucked to boot ( but that is for other reasons ). LI sound has been a little better with sheltered waters and better fishing, but people still don't come down in a deluge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 32 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: The fishing industry ( sport fishing ) has taken a huge hit as well. even nicer days involved an uncomfortable swell, and fishing has sucked to boot ( but that is for other reasons ). LI sound has been a little better with sheltered waters and better fishing, but people still don't come down in a deluge. Any stripers yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Any stripers yet? Raritan bay is on fire right now, from Staten Island to keansburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 starting to see some suppressed solutions for the weekend storm-the Euro being one of them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: starting to see some suppressed solutions for the weekend storm-the Euro being one of them Not sure a windy mist storm would be that much better outcome. Blocking/confluence doing work on that map with the ESE precip cutoff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Gfs not suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs not suppressed All comes down to where the blocking and resulting confluence sets up. Would be a nail biter if this was winter. Although it doesn’t really interest me now-light/mod rain vs mist is still another ruined weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 40 minutes ago, jm1220 said: All comes down to where the blocking and resulting confluence sets up. Would be a nail biter if this was winter. Although it doesn’t really interest me now-light/mod rain vs mist is still another ruined weekend. It's not the beast it looked like yesterday that's for sure....models seems to end it by 8-10am Sunday so maybe Sat AM and Sun PM are drier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Surprise pop up storm. Moderate rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Temperatures rose into the lower and middle 60s across the region today. The warming trend will continue tomorrow. Readings will generally reach the upper 60s across the region with warmer spots reaching or exceeding 70°. Looking farther ahead, the probability of a moderate or significant rain and wind storm next weekend has increased. The storm will likely be followed by another round of unseasonably cool air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around September 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -5.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.361 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3° (0.4° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 On 10/9/2023 at 7:38 PM, Wannabehippie said: More coastal flooding, plus flash flooding out of this system? The ground right now is absolutely saturated. Coastal flooding (probably moderate) is a real possibility. We'll have to see how much rain falls and at what rate. Right now, it's looking like a 1"-2" event, which could lead to some flooding, but nowhere near the widespread flooding seen on September 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Loving this cool weather and it looks like it will continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Loving this cool weather and it looks like it will continue 72 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: 72 tomorrow That's cool 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's cool U got the euro weeklies?? Are they cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: That's cool Isn't 72 today 5 or 6 degrees above average for Brooklyn? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 9 hours ago, Franklin0529 said: U got the euro weeklies?? Are they cool? Close to average next 10 with some milder days and cooler ones mixed in. Then maybe moderating a bit week 2. But the means are falling this time of year anyway. The coolest departures look like they will set up over the SE. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 10 hours ago, MJO812 said: That's cool Averages are in the mid-upper 60s now. Cool will be this weekend, especially Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 We have been the wettest part of the country. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(52/63) or -1. Reached 65 yesterday at 4pm. Today: 67-71, wind w., few clouds, 55 tomorrow AM. 58*(75%RH) here at 7am. 60* at 9am. 62* at Noon. 69* at 3pm. 70* at 3:30pm---5pm. 64* at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Been radiating each night to upper 30’s which is nice and cool in the morning, but daytime is definitely still growing quite warm at upper 60’s to 70ish in bright sunshine. What would really impress me is a month that runs below normal relative to older baselines, this could be mistaken but I believe most of our recent negative departure months (the few there are) wouldn’t have been negative against older normals, yes? Also (this is banter), I see the city every morning as I commute in to work. Almost every day I catch myself thinking the southern terminus of the Laurentide ice sheet used to be there. It’s really crazy to think about and conceive of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 11, 2023 Author Share Posted October 11, 2023 Ensembles through 00z/11 this weekend: trending south and not heavier. Monitoring but nothing close for me to prompt a flood impact topic. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 6z euro (to 0z sunday) did just come in heavier than it's last 2 runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: Been radiating each night to upper 30’s which is nice and cool in the morning, but daytime is definitely still growing quite warm at upper 60’s to 70ish in bright sunshine. What would really impress me is a month that runs below normal relative to older baselines, this could be mistaken but I believe most of our recent negative departure months (the few there are) wouldn’t have been negative against older normals, yes? Also (this is banter), I see the city every morning as I commute in to work. Almost every day I catch myself thinking the southern terminus of the Laurentide ice sheet used to be there. It’s really crazy to think about and conceive of. Our last impressive Arctic shot in October came with the super El Niño in 2015. One of the few times that Newark dropped below freezing during October. Widespread 20s in suburbs. for October 19, 2015 through October 19, 2015Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 20 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 21 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 21 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 21 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 22 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 23 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 23 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 23 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 23 CT DANBURY COOP 23 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 23 CT ANSONIA 1 NE COOP 23 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 24 NJ CRANFORD COOP 24 CT SAUGATUCK RESERVOIR COOP 24 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 24 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 25 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 25 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 26 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 27 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 27 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 27 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 27 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 28 CT GROTON COOP 28 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 28 CT BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL COOP 28 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 28 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 29 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 30 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 31 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 32 NJ HARRISON COOP 32 NY MATTITUCK COOP 32 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 33 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 33 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 34 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 35 NY CENTERPORT COOP 35 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 35 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 36 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 36 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 37 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 37 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 38 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of OctClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1936 25 0 2 1969 28 0 3 1976 29 0 - 1975 29 0 - 1937 29 0 4 1997 30 0 - 1965 30 0 - 1948 30 0 - 1940 30 0 5 2015 31 0 - 1988 31 0 - 1974 31 0 - 1972 31 0 - 1966 31 0 - 1952 31 0 - 1944 31 0 - 1933 31 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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