bluewave Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 The cold coming up doesn’t look too impressive for October. But it will certainly feel that way due to the 80s to start the month. So it’s all relative. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 9 hours ago, Rjay said: Gearing up for winter. Reminder, it's bad when the primary hangs on too long. @MJO812 Yeah, somewhat similar issue as last year with the primary location (Great Lakes). Have to be patient as bad winter patterns can last a few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah, somewhat similar issue as last year with the primary location (Great Lakes). Have to be patient as bad winter patterns can last a few years. The primary hanging on too long/Lake cutters are Nina features. Hopefully as we go into winter we get rid of those. That map would be heavy rain for the city/coast even in late January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The primary hanging on too long/Lake cutters are Nina features. Hopefully as we go into winter we get rid of those. That map would be heavy rain for the city/coast even in late January. Yeah, the NPAC firehose jet is knocking down the +PNA ridge too quickly so primary runs to the lakes. The STJ can’t completely take over like we would want to see. There has been quite a bit of this type of storm track behavior in recent years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the NPAC firehose jet is knocking down the +PNA ridge too quickly so primary runs to the lakes. The STJ can’t completely take over like we would want to see. There has been quite a bit of this type of storm track behavior in recent years. It's going to take a lot for us to see a good snowstorm again. There is a part of me that thinks we see another sub 10" year this season. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's going to take a lot for us to see a good snowstorm again. There is a part of me that thinks we see another sub 10" year this season. The 2nd part may very well happen but the first part is a bit dramatic 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The 2nd part may very well happen but the first part is a bit dramatic If the Pacific firehouse becomes a permanent feature for every season then we are screwed 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the NPAC firehose jet is knocking down the +PNA ridge too quickly so primary runs to the lakes. The STJ can’t completely take over like we would want to see. There has been quite a bit of this type of storm track behavior in recent years. If that raging jet stays, doesn’t matter how strong any Nino might be, we still have the perma-Nina state. Maybe it’s a good thing we’re getting this over with now? PDO is still very negative which reinforces that jet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Lol 12z GFS might've produced a decent miller B snow event if it was winter. But alas it'll just ruin another weekend in mid October 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It's going to take a lot for us to see a good snowstorm again. There is a part of me that thinks we see another sub 10" year this season. How can you say this now in October ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Touched 60 before clouds came in. Blustery 57 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Next weekend ( Saturday and Sunday) is a washout on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next weekend ( Saturday and Sunday) is a washout on the gfs Cmc is wet sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Cmc is wet sunday Yep further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The cold coming up doesn’t look too impressive for October. But it will certainly feel that way due to the 80s to start the month. So it’s all relative. we keep getting these well mixed cool shots where the coldest anomalies are in the mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 We may be a little ahead of ourselves. Autumn with perfect storm tracks for snow does not usually precede the best winters. In Autumn storms are often hooking to the left more. And if during winter there is good blocking over the North Atlantic and ample cold air this is not a concern. Even in the best of winters, some storms are going to hook left and bring rain to the coast. If they all tracked perfectly we'd get more than 100" snow. Not going to happen. WX/PT 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 it was chilly outside even with a hoodie and a jacket over the hoodie i was shivering real fall has arrived... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 8, 2023 Author Share Posted October 8, 2023 Noted on Rain totals from late Thursday through Monday of early next week. ENS amounts are generally near 1.4". Far too early for me to tell if it will be a bigger event, and timing is very different between the Canadian and USA models (CMC vs GFS) with CMC models mostly next Monday here in the NYC subforum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 8, 2023 Author Share Posted October 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: Noted on Rain totals from late Thursday through Monday of early next week. ENS amounts are generally near 1.4". Far too early for me to tell if it will be a bigger event, and timing is very different between the Canadian and USA models (CMC vs GFS) with CMC models mostly next Monday here in the NYC subforum. I just checked (00z/8) machine learning AI and there is no GEFS outlook of excessive rain, even the lowest probs. Remembering for yesterday..the SPC HREF had no probs of 1,2,3" in 6 hours. Obviously that was wrong for 1 and 2 but it was not concentrated probs, so for me modeling is suggesting, caution ahead til we get closer. Those SPC HREF probs differed for the big one on the 29th when there were 6 hours probs for 3" near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It's going to take a lot for us to see a good snowstorm again. There is a part of me that thinks we see another sub 10" year this season. It's 2 months away..can you just enjoy the Fall? 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Tomorrow will be another brisk and cool day. Temperatures will remain below 60° in parts of the region. Temperatures will slowly warm afterward. Looking farther ahead, there is the possibility of a moderate or significant rain and wind storm next weekend followed by another round of unseasonably cool air. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around September 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -6.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.714 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 Cmc totally suppressed for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 First 30’s of the season! Hit 38 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 42 Heat is on for the first time this season 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 9, 2023 Author Share Posted October 9, 2023 Still in my mind uncertainty regarding timing and amounts of rain NYC subforum based 00z/06z global ops and ensembles. I saw a channel broadcasting 2-3" amounts in parts of the area this weekend. Could be, and I think the CMC 00z/9 version is wrong (too far south) being dry here, but yet it is a consideration for my incorporation. AI day6 does have low prob excessive in central-s NJ. Noted ensemble pattern seems to favor some sort of rain event the following weekend as well (21st-22nd) but the 24 hour yield is not much, so far. 718A/9. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 47 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 48 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Cmc totally suppressed for next weekend Gfs and Euro further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs and Euro further north There's more room for it to go further south than north imo. I do think Euro/GFS will trend further south however it won't be enough to keep us dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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